Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 In January, not December. If you want a dying clipper to track before NY then maybe they'll be one.It was mentioned many times that the last week of Dec would be active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It was mentioned many times that the last week of Dec would be active Doesn't look very active here...a dying clipper and maybe an outside shot at an event near NYE. Looks like after that could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 the ens mean 850 temps aren't that impressive. the -16c contour stays near canada the whole period Probably because of timing differences with storms. Same thing happened in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It was mentioned many times that the last week of Dec would be active When, 3 weeks ago? I told you yesterday it would not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Looks very dry with near average temps with a day or two below. One of the driest runs I have ever seen of the 6z OP GFS till the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Probably because of timing differences with storms. Same thing happened in December. correct me if i'm wrong but i remember colder day 7+ forecasts for the last cold period than what's being modeled for the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 correct me if i'm wrong but i remember colder day 7+ forecasts for the last cold period than what's being modeled for the next one I remember those day 10 ensemble progs always keeping the cold north, but the op runs had the idea of "potential". For instance I could see 850 temps in this regime rising rather steadily to near 0C if we get something coming up the coast, but then like -20C post storm. That's why I think the ensemble mean in this case may not tell the whole story, but you know with that EPO ridge it could get quite cold. However, SWFE and warmer storms close by are still a risk in these patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 happy to repeat the pattern a couple of times and get another 16 inches of snow during a week. Then watch the fun continue in a different way as the AO goes negative and the NAO follows. 75-100 down by end of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The PV is really taking a beating with larger EP flux and heat transport north. It's possible it splits or gets shoved for a possible -AO in Feb. very interesting .. Cohen's work would suggest the opposite for the 2nd half of winter. could argue the importance of rate of snow cover extent vs. advancement this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 very interesting .. Cohen's work would suggest the opposite for the 2nd half of winter. could argue the importance of rate of snow cover extent vs. advancement this year? Funny cause last year we switched to a more -AO in February yet everyone still dryhumped his work. If we switch to a -AO we'll see if they still do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The thing I took away from Cohen was that he seemed very uncertain about snowfall. In his interview with Harvey he said Boston would probably have a normal snowfall year but it sounded like a low confidence forecast because of conflicting signals. In the end for myself (and I think many here) that is what counts. Snowpack is great but most seem to want the event more than the aftermath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The thing I took away from Cohen was that he seemed very uncertain about snowfall. In his interview with Harvey he said Boston would probably have a normal snowfall year but it sounded like a low confidence forecast because of conflicting signals. In the end for myself (and I think many here) that is what counts. Snowpack is great but most seem to want the event more than the aftermath. The problem is that people are taking it for gospel. Now what if we flip to a -AO? Will the answer be that he was right the first half of winter? It doesn't work like that. His work is sound, but there are other variables at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Ski resorts would sill be able to make plenty of snow....so why not smoke some cirrus.. Agree. sIt's all about the natural. No one loves brutal cold and dry, except maybe Dendrite You guys love it when we smoke cirrus, lol. But probably the same way the mid-Atlantic folks go ape-sh*t when they get a storm and SNE is watching dim sun. There's always an odd satisfaction when someone who is supposed to be snowier than you gets shafted. But doesn't happen if you get snow while those that average less watch it fall down the drain...you think that's how it's supposed to be, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro ensembles are just frigid for the first week of 2014. Beautiful PV displacement on our side of the globe with a fantastic ridge bridge from Anchorage to the North Pole to Moscow. Doesn't get any better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The problem is that people are taking it for gospel. Now what if we flip to a -AO? Will the answer be that he was right the first half of winter? It doesn't work like that. His work is sound, but there are other variables at play. from reading a couple of his papers, it seems the AO signal for the 2nd half of winter is what his work is trying to explain. Its interesting he compares the SAI / SCE to the avg winter AO, when the physical mechanisms he outlines would suggest the effects of snow cover come into play from the end of January into February and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 from reading a couple of his papers, it seems the AO signal for the 2nd half of winter is what his work is trying to explain. Its interesting he compares the SAI / SCE to the avg winter AO, when the physical mechanisms he outlines would suggest the effects of snow cover come into play from the end of January into February and beyond? I'll have to read it again but it seems the January-March period is the main argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The positive AO winter folk may have to contend with this. By D6-10 the GEFs mean is indicating a sudden SW event over Siberia... If that were to be of the ilk that effects the nature of the ambient PV, we would see a potential -AO exertion beginning in the last 10 days of the month if the standard lag for propagating warm anomalies indeed verifies. Before getting that far, and as other have noted, there is an abundance of cold teleconnectors post this warm up. The AO has shown three nightly computations from the GEFs where the mean is negative heading through week two (prior to any SSW suggestion above). The NAO is also stacked toward -1SD across that same time. The NP/EPO is modestly negative but pinned so, and the PNA has two distinct upward spikes across the next 10 days, ending up in the positive mode. Could wind up being a memorable January given this sort of tapestry of indicators. Also, we used have a kind of saying up that lab, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom." This is the sensible correlation to the oscillations of larger mass-fields, of course, but with the PNA doing that bouncy rise, and plenty of continental cold, at any time during the next 10 days I feel one of these waves amplifying through the NP-GL-OV-upper MA may end up more robust than currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The positive AO winter folk may have to contend with this. By D6-10 the GEFs mean is indicating a sudden SW event over Siberia... If that were to be of the ilk that effects the nature of the ambient PV, we would see a potential -AO exertion beginning in the last 10 days of the month if the standard lag for propagating warm anomalies indeed verifies. Before getting that far, and as other have noted, there is an abundance of cold teleconnectors post this warm up. The AO has shown three nightly computations from the GEFs where the mean is negative heading through week two (prior to any SSW suggestion above). The NAO is also slacking toward -1SD across that same time. The NP/EPO is modestly negative but pinned so, and the PNA has two distinct upward spikes across the next 10 days, ending up in the positive mode. Could wind up being a memorable January given this sort of tapestry of indicators. Also, we used have a kind of saying up that lab, "first gets, then it gets cold, boom." This is the sensible correlation to the oscillations of larger mass-fields, of course, but with the PNA doing that bouncy rise, and plenty of continental cold, at any time during the next 10 days I feel one of these waves amplifying through the NP-GL-OV-upper MA may end up more robust than currently depicted. lol But I do agree - there are a lot of wonderful signs for January on all available guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 lol But I do agree - there are a lot of wonderful signs for January on all available guidance. LOL , just a little poetic license Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 They tried that in November as well. Didn't work. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 long range ensembles showed a big dip coming to the AO in November and it proved a false signal. Why is this any different right now with the current regime so nicely set up? Technology is not impervious to failure. Outside 3 days, they can and will struggle. Wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Talk of that New Year's potential died a quicky death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Talk of that New Year's potential died a quicky death.You're emotional right now. Step away for a few . Come back with a clear head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't hate the New Year potential...it doesn't look overwhelming right now, but a lot of ensemble members have a clipper-esque system. Those would obviously be difficult to track more than a few days out. As we saw with last Tuesday, quick moving clipper systems that move south of SNE can produce nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It's really great too see the overwhelming feeling for the pattern moving forward has awesome potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Which NY threat are we referring too? There is one near the 30 and then another possible night of 1/1. The possible low on 1/1 may have more legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't hate the New Year potential...it doesn't look overwhelming right now, but a lot of ensemble members have a clipper-esque system. Those would obviously be difficult to track more than a few days out. As we saw with last Tuesday, quick moving clipper systems that move south of SNE can produce nice surprises. Good to see some discussion on actual threats again, as opposed some others who have tried to interject with banter. We had a white NY eave in 2009, didn't we? I think that was the last....it was that protracted, 3 day deal that I ended up with a foot in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Good to see some discussion on actual threats again, as opposed some others who have tried to interject with banter. We had a white NY eave in 2009, didn't we? I think that was the last....it was that protracted, 3 day deal that I ended up with a foot in... That was jan 2 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 That was jan 2 2010. 07-08 was a great NYE/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 07-08 was a great NYE/NY. 12/31/08 was an awesome fluffbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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