jm1220 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS looks like a complete torch at 54 hours. 850mb low does not redevelop and the sfc low hugs the coast. Not a great run at all. Front end snow, then plain rain for many. That's why if anyone wants all or mostly snow, we need a weaker storm off the coast. Or one that redevelops far enough south to close off an 850mb low and stop the deluge of warm air. It would be a fun few hours on this run but eventually rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Surface temps soar into the 40s this run going off surface maps look like we change over to plain rain around hr 51….we have had over .5+ frozen before that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ok so what model does better at this range? nam or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol at eastern LI hitting 50 degrees haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gfs vs the world it appears. What other guidance resembles what the gfs just regurgitated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro trended warmer..so did the gfs. It's another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Wait for the GFES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 nw areas still get a good thump of snow followed by ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 nw areas still get a good thump of snow followed by ice 4-6 before a change over to ice. Any idea what te soundings show for kmmu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 4-6 before a change over to ice. Any idea what te soundings show for kmmu? looks like more than that snow wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still looks decent for us in the interior. Probably the more likely outcome if you compare it to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looks like more than that snow wise Yeah, now that im looking 6-8ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 4-6 before a change over to ice. Any idea what te soundings show for kmmu? kmmu goes to rain at hr 54 (about 34) sussex stays below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like this run. Should have been colder due to the high being in a better spot on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 appreciate the sussex shout-out kmmu goes to rain at hr 54 (about 34) sussex stays below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still looks decent for us in the interior. Probably the more likely outcome if you compare it to the NAM Yup. 4-8 inches is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 appreciate the sussex shout-out sussex is not even close to 32. stays in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is the warmest the surface gets - as the 850`s push thru the area at 51 hours the surface WARMS TO 40 from Long Island into the city then to the NJTP and points south along the coast it rains but not before theres accumulating snow .West of that the precip stays frozen . fwiw hr 54 is colder as is hr 66 as the surface s come crashing down as the low heads ENE .By that time the best dynamics are leaving so don't think warap around . This is not a torch for anyone but the coast , so be specific this board covers a lot of people . Theres prob 2- 4 inches of snow in NYC before the change and prob 6 just west of the city and the gradient will look good as it can be 40 at NEWARK with rain but in the Teens in NWNJ with S plus . This is not a bad solution and has been well modeled . ( NAM not included ) There is very good agreement that the warm air makes through the coastal plain before the height of the precip . If you are looking for a magic run , it may not appear for you . its December , and for some this is the 3rd snowfall inside 7 days before Dec 15th , That doesn't happen very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How's it go from very cold to 40 in 3 hours in this air mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yup. 4-8 inches is my call. Lonnie Quinn think 5-9+ for us up here.. I really don't see the warmth overrunning up here so I think we will stay all snow with maybe some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is the warmest the surface gets - as the 850`s push thru the area at 51 hours the surface WARMS TO 40 from Long Island into the city then to the NJTP and points south along the coast it rains but not before theres accumulating snow .West of that the precip stays frozen . fwiw hr 54 is colder as is hr 66 as the surface s come crashing down as the low heads ENE .By that time the best dynamics are leaving so don't think warap around . This is not a torch for anyone but the coast , so be specific this board covers a lot of people . Theres prob 2- 4 inches of snow in NYC before the change and prob 6 just west of the city and the gradient will look good as it can be 40 at NEWARK with rain but in the Teens in NWNJ with S plus . This is not a bad solution and has been well modeled . ( NAM not included ) There is very good agreement that the warm air makes through the coastal plain before the height of the precip . If you are looking for a magic run , it may not appear for you . its December , and for some this is the 3rd snowfall inside 7 days before Dec 15th , That doesn't happen very often FWIW, that temperature contrast from 19 in Southern NY to the 70's a bit off shore is a cool shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How's it go from very cold to 40 in 3 hours in this air mass? Because you can throw a rock from your house and hit an ocean that's 50 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nick Gregory had the immediate NYC/NE NJ area (including Middlesex County, north of the Raritan and including western Nassau in his 3-5" band, with 5-8" to the N/W of about the 78/287 intersection and to the north of 80, in general. Lee Goldberg had a similar map with the NYC metro section in a 2-5" swath with 5-8" N/W of there - he had a steeper gradient to <1" of snow, though, along the Monmouth coast and even the south shore of LI east of Nassau, if I recall correctly. Will be interesting to see if the Euro is somewhere between the GFS and NAM or more like one of the other - or completely different, lol. Still a lot can change 2 days out, especially for such a borderline situation, where a track change of 25-50 miles could make a huge difference in temps and the rain/snow line. Strap in folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like this run. Should have been colder due to the high being in a better spot on this run it shouldnt have been colder..LOOK AT THE 850MB LOW CENTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How's it go from very cold to 40 in 3 hours in this air mass? SE winds and an 850 low in western PA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lonnie Quinn think 5-9+ for us up here.. I really don't see the warmth overrunning up here so I think we will stay all snow with maybe some sleet How far south was his 5-9 inch line... I am in northern Westchester... Ossining NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The gfs is not showing the CAD being as strong which is kinda odd given the highs draining cold air south. The gfs has been one of the warmest with this, I would go somewhere in between right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like this run. Should have been colder due to the high being in a better spot on this run What do you mean should have been? Why should have it been colder? It shouldn't have to do anything. It's weather forecasting, just because it doesn't show a blizzard doesn't mean it's wrong. Post like this have been happening all week long and it's hard, especially for new people on here to get a grasp on how weather forecasting actually works. Too many people throwing snow bias into the forum. Don't get me wrong, I love the snow, but if a run shows less snow or warmer temps half the board wants to jump off a bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How's it go from very cold to 40 in 3 hours in this air mass? Early December ocean with SE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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