TSSN+ Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Learning from the past....me no likey miller b....that's how you heartbreak us in the west I'm not feeling this one. Maybe some very light snow and a glaze of ice. Euro is by itself on the heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Learning from the past....me no likey miller b....that's how you heartbreak us in the westThe only thing I know for sure is I will not get deathbanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 now we're talkin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 now we're talkin! millerb!!!.JPG at least at this point, this one does have a NE flavor to it, but we all know what they say about bullseyes and 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 now we're talkin! millerb!!!.JPG Nice DC and Rockville bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 now we're talkin! millerb!!!.JPG What is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What is that That's the 18Z GFS showing a boatload of snow on your bushes, if you live in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice DC and Rockville bullseye. We live large down here man. We got the stats to back it up too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 You have to wonder if the past three days were our shot at winter and now we are headed back to the usual pattern of northern stream kickers and Miller B screwjobs. When SNE has a "snow drought" it usually lasts a month at most and then they are rewarded for their suffering with a couple of blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What is that Probably the eventual verified snow map from next weekend's storm. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We live large down here man. We got the stats to back it up too! Large and in charge, the way you like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 now we're talkin! millerb!!!.JPG Lol...I'm sure the 0Z GFS tonight will look just like this. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What so now the gfs shows a little snow at 18z? It didn't at 12z right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 3 pages for a New England snowstorm. Love you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Learning from the past....me no likey miller b....that's how you heartbreak us in the west It is called "Next" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The primary dies because it has nowhere to go. HP doesn't have to be pressing south it just has to put up a wall. As an area of lp tracks into the hp it progressively weakens. There's a baroclinic zone along the coast in the winter due to temp gradient. If the primary is close enough a new area of lp will form off the coast and restrengthen. Typically with miller b's the lp off the coast forms pretty far south but it is very weak and rides up along with the primary basically unnoticed for the most part. Once the primary hits the wall it just feeds the lp off the coast and it strengthens from there. If a primary low was cutting to chicago It's too far west to transfer anywhere. Those scenarios are usually front end only and dryslot drizzle. Last december had a pretty classic example of that scenario. I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it. Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo? GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 3 pages for a New England snowstorm. Love you guys. Lmao, Tracker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it. Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo? GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with. it happened in Feb 2007. But of course the pattern was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 it happened in Feb 2007. But of course the pattern was different. I don't have memory of storm then because I didn't live here. When you are on the other side of the mountains you get a warm wedge and no thump. I guess if a low is strong enough it could do it but that's about 800 miles. When I see lows going there, I just quit watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like your explanation, but disagree with you on one part. If a low tracks to Chicago, we aren't getting a front end thump. We would likely get only frontal showers. If it ever happens, I'll stand corrected. Also, I'm not sure what Dec storm of last year that you are referring to, but if it is the Christmas storm, the Chill storm, the Euro kept insisting the low would go to Chicago, but it ended up in middle Tn and into se Ky and then transferred off the Va coast. You can check the thread on that one if you think I'm mistaken, but I remember that one well. If we can get a low to go to somewhere between Cincinnati and Huntington and then jump we can get a good slug of moisture up front and then dry slot and cool down rather quickly. If it goes up west of there we'll get minor front end precip and then torch. Again, I don't claim to be an expert and if wrong I will stand corrected, but that's the way I see it. Maybe just hope the Euro is correct. BTW, where is its low located and what transformation does it undergo? GFS ens was not definitive IMO but a few were solutions we could work with. This is how it can happen. 3-6" in DC area in 1982. A little CAD can go a long way at times. See #5 in the list below: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/washington-dcs-top-5-surprise-snowstorms/2012/01/16/gIQAPwOoAQ_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You're right wnwxluvr. Last year is not a good example at all. I got model runs and reality mixed up. Chicago was the left goal post of guidance leading in. I was using Chicago as an extreme example to help explain distance from the coast makes a big difference on transfer or lack of. And its cool when a big wound up Midwest cyclone can give us snow with strong cad. It's the only thing the apps are good for. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Miller B. Enough said!! The history of busts from these speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Miller B or not....if it can deliver an inch or two then even better...I'm extremely happy with the start of this winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You're right wnwxluvr. Last year is not a good example at all. I got model runs and reality mixed up. Chicago was the left goal post of guidance leading in. I was using Chicago as an extreme example to help explain distance from the coast makes a big difference on transfer or lack of. And its cool when a big wound up Midwest cyclone can give us snow with strong cad. It's the only thing the apps are good for. Lol As Kurt showed, it can happen but takes a strong low. Seems like last year there were two blizzards in the Kansas and Missouri areas. Strong lows in the Arkansas area, neither doing anything here. Just too far away. If memory serves. I don't mind a low west of the Apps with cad. It just has to jump before it reaches our latitude if we are to have any chance of holding on to whatever thump might come. BTW, if you see this, is it just my imagination or is the Euro much colder at 850 than the gfs? Does it ever take out 850's above 0? I don't know about you, but I like the fact that the Euro is the cold model on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Miller B. Enough said!! The history of busts from these speaks for itself. Depends on expectation. If you're looking for all snow or back end snow, yep, you're likely gonna be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Zero Sref members have the -10c 850 line as far south as the 12z euro at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I believe we lose 850's but not nearly as bad as the gfs. I think they only retreat to s pa and then come back. Both solutions are totally viable. Imo there's no hedge between the 2. It's safe to say if we get a miller b that there will be some frozen. Especially your area. Just something tp watch for now. And like others have said, cold is on a winning streak but many details are unknown. Miller b's are usually nowcast at the end. That stuff is fun for sure. I'm not much invested in this one yet. Maybe in a day or 2 if it becomes more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm a beaten man. Leesburg, winterwx, mitchnick , Bob chill et al. Pick up the torch. Carry it until I return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm a beaten man. Leesburg, winterwx, mitchnick , Bob chill et al. Pick up the torch. Carry it until I return. We do NOT quit around here when there's still 4 days to go! Sure, many people quit when there's 4 hours to go, but NEVER when there's 4 days! Stand tall man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We do NOT quit around here when there's still 4 days to go! Sure, many people quit when there's 4 hours to go, but NEVER when there's 4 days! Stand tall man! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??!! Nothing is over until we say it is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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