yoda Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't look at the GFS. No where near the euro. Too late -- saw the lovely cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't look at the GFS. No where near the euro. Wouldn't know, can't see the euro, but it is losing the idea of the low west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wouldn't know, can't see the euro, but it is losing the idea of the low west of the apps. But gaining the lovely Miller B look we all love and enjoy around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well maybe I spoke too soon. Just looks close to a decent solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I could walk outside with a glass of water and I think the temp would increase by a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Too late -- saw the lovely cold rain This is where we excel...cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 All of them? 20% chance that some of them are 35% chance that half of them are 45% chance all of them are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro has this one. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 But gaining the lovely Miller B look we all love and enjoy around here if it's any consolation, GFS has much of SNE changing to ip/zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 if it's any consolation, GFS has much of SNE changing to ip/zr At least we know the GFS is wrong then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well the surface, 850's, 420's and 10-100's are totally fooked but we have precip. I think this is a solid run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own Euro is like the NAM in this regard GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own Euro is like the NAM in this regard GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 EE rule? EN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agreed Mitch but the gfs has been doing the phase thing run after run. Solid wraparound cold so its still a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 EN Still called EE mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Still called EE mitch. EN EN EN EN EN EN EN ENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agreed Mitch but the gfs has been doing the phase thing run after run. Solid wraparound cold so its still a good run after rain? nyet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agreed Mitch but the gfs has been doing the phase thing run after run. Solid wraparound cold so its still a good run Yeah but a few of its ensembles are resisting that notion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah but a few of its ensembles are resisting that notion. I ask, would we prefer to have the Euro and NAM (spelled with an "E" ) with us 4 days out or the GFS? doesn't mean the GFS is wrong or the other 2 are right, but history tells us GFS is more likely to have the wrong solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 after rain? nyet Oh, so you want to eat the cake too? Sorry man, I can only bend optimism so far... Jokes aside, the phase or no phase is the magic elixir. We're pretty close in now. If the euro takes a step towards the phase then we are close to the point of no return. Another day of runs maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Oh, so you want to eat the cake too? Sorry man, I can only bend optimism so far... Jokes aside, the phase or no phase is the magic elixir. We're pretty close in now. If the euro takes a step towards the phase then we are close to the point of no return. Another day of runs maybe. yep, agree but I won't know until the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 you can compare the GFS and NAM at 84 hrs and see how the GFS is phasing the northern stream with the southern vort while the NAM has the southern vort coming out faster so the vort northwest of the Dakotas is on its own Euro is like the NAM in this regard GFS: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Agreed, need a flatter southern stream S/W if it's going to make it in time. Unfortunately, it usually trends the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Agreed, need a flatter southern stream S/W if it's going to make it in time. Unfortunately, it usually trends the other way. I think lack of blocking (or some other feature) may make it more progressive as we've seen how things have been shoved offshore; we can hope at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think lack of blocking (or some other feature) may make it more progressive as we've seen how things have been shoved offshore; we can hope at least. The SRN shortwave now in the PAC is forecast to split, and what energy goes where adds another level of complication, hence the Srefs are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro gives us a couple of inches of snow (per Wunderground maps) and not a lot of rain afterward progressive flow ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 An inch or two for the spots that already received snow is a lock....it's Wednesday people and it's the euro. I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snow is a lock.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntwdH3Q54ZY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 My my, what a riveting narrative on the Euro Something must be good. My Sat night forecast is 90% snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 doubting thomas wants me to dismiss this for DC proper a la the last two. I'm gonna keep my expectations low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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