12/10 Winter Weather Observations

[doncat]

The sun just came out here, and it looks beautiful! Snow stuck to the trees and artic air coming in! Welcome old man winter

Love the cold after the snow.

[dbc]

Love the cold after the snow.

This. It's been a scarce occurence for several winters now.

[WeatherFox]

0.0 outside my window in Midtown. Every once in a while I see a car go by with snow on it.

That is a bummer.  At least Central Park recorded 1.4" and a record.

 

  

[SnowGoose69]

That is a bummer.  At least Central Park recorded 1.4" and a record.

 

  

That was likely too low as well although not one of their worst measurements, the 0.1 the other day was bad, probably had 0.6...today again was an instance of them not measuring til 1pm, and during the lull that ocurred from 1130-1230 I think some compacting occurred.

[bluewave]

It doesn't get any better than snow on the new Long Beach boardwalk.

 

 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

It doesn't get any better than snow on the new Long Beach boardwalk.

 

Screen shot 2013-12-10 at 4.22.40 PM.png

Wish I could've been there to see the snow coming down.

[BxEngine]

Gorgeous late afternoon sun on the snow...

Need to crop out the sewer grate lol:

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/10/2013 / 4:30 PM

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 10.8"

Allentown: 3.9"

Newark Airport: 3.1"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 3.1"

NYC JFK: 3.0"

NYC LaGuardia: 2.0"

Islip, NY: 1.9"

NYC Central Park: 1.5"

[Allsnow]

Seasonal Snowfall

2013-14 Winter

As of 12/10/2013 / 4:30 PM

Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 10.8"

Allentown: 3.9"

Newark Airport: 3.1"

Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 3.1"

NYC JFK: 3.0"

NYC LaGuardia: 2.0"

Islip, NY: 1.9"

NYC Central Park: 1.5"

Glad to see this back! What does orh and Bos have?

[Guest Pamela]

Glad to see this back! What does orh and Bos have?

Not including today, Boston (Logan Airport) has seen 0.5" & Worcester has seen 1.6".

[Allsnow]

Not including today, Boston (Logan Airport) has seen 0.5" & Worcester has seen 1.6".

Phl got one heck of a jump start

[KamuSnow]

Phl got one heck of a jump start

More there already than all of last winter. Congrats on the snow up your way, should be around until the weekend...

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

Finished with 3 inches here in Morganville, NJ Monmouth County.

[Rjay]

LI south shore screw zone strikes again.

I got a couple inches in southern Nassau...3 on the grass...a little less than 2 on the pavement...melting fast tho lol

[wxman]

3.75" total here.

[Rtd208]

Estimated final snowfall accumulation 2.0-2.5"

[Allsnow]

More there already than all of last winter. Congrats on the snow up your way, should be around until the weekend...

Thank you

[IsentropicLift]

The NAM was awful with this event, particularly the 4k NAM which was still insisting on an all out snow bomb as of the 00z run last night. The GFS was also way overdone showing widespread 6"+ amounts for everyone. The GGEM, RGEM and Euro really led the way with this storm, and overall the GGEM had the best idea keeping the best banding not only south of the area but weaker than the consensus.  

[tim]

just cloudy here..expectations lowered..34.7*..totally expect it to start as rain

and stay rain for a while..east end screw job.

..should have none better..after working all day came home to no

snow on the ground..bit of a bust out here on the east end.

[nzucker]

This is just as bad as the 3/08/13 event. We were supposed to pick up 2-4", but surface temps on the south shore caused us to pick up barely anything.

I'd call it an inch here, but it's melting fast and most spots are bare.

That event was much better for the area as a whole, though. I measured 9" in Dobbs Ferry and my workplace in East New York had about 4". The banding was much more widespread.

I had 2" today in Bay Ridge. A lot of the snow melted though as we climbed to 35-36F. Now I am in the Bronx which has better accumulation, no surprise. This event was a bit of a disappointment with the cold upper levels not translating to the surface as well as the absence of heavier bands. We finished on the low end of all forecast totals.

At least December won't be snowless, nor too mild. We have three days upcoming with -10F departures and a threat Saturday. A wintry December after a cold November usually bodes well for NYC snowfall.

[FPizz]

4" here. Got to play with the kids for 2 hours today in it. Nice day.

[Absolute Humidity]

2.5" here. Could have been a little more. I based it off of melted liquid and surrounding reports when I got home at 8pmish. Still have a nice crusty 2" frozen everywhere. Looks nice but not as good as Sunday's event as that was colder in daylight and stuck to all pavements.

[jm1220]

The NAM was awful with this event, particularly the 4k NAM which was still insisting on an all out snow bomb as of the 00z run last night. The GFS was also way overdone showing widespread 6"+ amounts for everyone. The GGEM, RGEM and Euro really led the way with this storm, and overall the GGEM had the best idea keeping the best banding not only south of the area but weaker than the consensus.  

The ratios were much worse than expected because of the warm ground and warm initial air. We would have done better had the snow not broken up as the morning went on, but as I was saying, today was a very fragile setup. Without the strong mesobanding. we ended up with about what I thought we'd be capped at-2 or 3". But had the snow started at temps around freezing rather than 35, we would have accumulated another inch or two most likely. I can even tell at home now that a good amount of the snow melted this afternoon once temps were able to climb again and the sun poked out.

[Wannabehippie]

What ever snow we got here in Astoria was pretty much gone by 3pm.  A few cars had some snow on them, a bit on the grass. But sidewalks and streets were just wet. 

[nzucker]

The ratios were much worse than expected because of the warm ground and warm initial air. We would have done better had the snow not broken up as the morning went on, but as I was saying, today was a very fragile setup. Without the strong mesobanding. we ended up with about what I thought we'd be capped at-2 or 3". But had the snow started at temps around freezing rather than 35, we would have accumulated another inch or two most likely. I can even tell at home now that a good amount of the snow melted this afternoon once temps were able to climb again and the sun poked out.

We needed a mesoband later on in the morning when the surface was colder. Instead all the heavy banding was early when it was still 34-35F with 850s of -4C rather than 32F and colder upstairs.

This storm brought in the cold; we didn't have a frigid antecedent airmass...it's also early December, and people have to remember average highs are mostly in the 42-44F range around the area, not 32-34F as they are a month from now. Those expecting 15:1 or higher ratios were bound to be disappointed...that happens in storms like the January 2004 clippers when it's mid winter, it's been in the teens and single digits, and the ground is already frozen solid.

Most of us are well above average on snow for the season...PHL has 11" and the NYC stations have 2-3". We only average around 4" in December and most comes in the month's second half. The big -EPO pattern becomes more beneficial as the jet sinks south. We see that with this weekend's storm as we have a coastal.

Also, after years of warmth, the tide seems to be turning towards cold in NYC. Last winter we had November at -4F and March around -2.5F, both very cold months. This fall was chilly with September -1F at NYC stations and November -2F. Despite the warm start I imagine December finishes at least -2F. We have three straight days of 30/20 or colder; that's about -12 departure. Next Monday and Tuesday look brutal with spreads around 25/10, close to -20 departures. Great start to winter.

[NorthShoreWx]

That event was much better for the area as a whole, though. I measured 9" in Dobbs Ferry and my workplace in East New York had about 4". The banding was much more widespread.

I had 2" today in Bay Ridge. A lot of the snow melted though as we climbed to 35-36F. Now I am in the Bronx which has better accumulation, no surprise. This event was a bit of a disappointment with the cold upper levels not translating to the surface as well as the absence of heavier bands. We finished on the low end of all forecast totals.

At least December won't be snowless, nor too mild. We have three days upcoming with -10F departures and a threat Saturday. A wintry December after a cold November usually bodes well for NYC snowfall.

 

March 8 wasn't all bad on the island either.  We had 7" of heavy wet snow in Smithtown:

 

 

Today's tally was 1.6" reached shortly after 11AM.  The snow through late this afternoon maintained but did not increase the snow depth.  SWE was 0.19"

[Guest Pamela]

This storm brought in the cold; we didn't have a frigid antecedent airmass...it's also early December, and people have to remember average highs are mostly in the 42-44F range around the area, not 32-34F as they are a month from now.

We only average around 4" in December and most comes in the month's second half.

Not to be a nitpicker...but a month from now the average highs in the area are closer to 36 F to 38 F.

The park use to average about 6 inches of snow in December...then came the remarkably anomalous 1970 - 2000 period where the 30 year December average fell to an unprecedented 2 inches per this month...since the new century...things seem to be evening out just a bit.

[BxEngine]

Forgot how much colder it feels with snow on the ground overnight....

[earthlight]

The NAM was awful with this event, particularly the 4k NAM which was still insisting on an all out snow bomb as of the 00z run last night. The GFS was also way overdone showing widespread 6"+ amounts for everyone. The GGEM, RGEM and Euro really led the way with this storm, and overall the GGEM had the best idea keeping the best banding not only south of the area but weaker than the consensus.

I disagree pretty strongly with this. The NAM was the first model to sniff out this potential developing precipitation with the front offshore while every other model was flat. It was slightly off with the banding but fluctated a bit as the event approached, never losing it totally.

You have to stop using snowfall maps to analyze models if you want to have any type of realistic idea as to what the guidance is showing. It's simply not fair to base a models performance off its snow total maps, especially with all the different algorithms used around the internet. They're called clown maps for a reason.

Although snow ratios were killed a bit by riming in some areas, I thought the NAM in specific was pretty good overall with this event. The QPF was too high but that is to be expected from that model. It was clear from the get go that this was a 2-4" event in most areas with the possibility of some higher amounts if someone got lucky - and that's exactly what happened.

[earthlight]

The ratios were much worse than expected because of the warm ground and warm initial air. We would have done better had the snow not broken up as the morning went on, but as I was saying, today was a very fragile setup. Without the strong mesobanding. we ended up with about what I thought we'd be capped at-2 or 3". But had the snow started at temps around freezing rather than 35, we would have accumulated another inch or two most likely. I can even tell at home now that a good amount of the snow melted this afternoon once temps were able to climb again and the sun poked out.

All of the models including the high resolution 4km NAM and RGEM were showing boundary layer issues along the coast. People just chose to ignore it.