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12/10 Winter Weather Observations


WeatherFox

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After today the positive temp departures from the first few days of the month have been erased and we should be running a nice -2 to -3 departure by early next week.

The 12z GEFS ensembles have moderating temps post day ten with upper 40's and low 50's possible along the coastal plain. The cold air is nearbye though and comes back just in time for Christmas.

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The trough pulls back day 8  in the East  thru 11 , swings back thru D 12 , so the warm up is brief , And is not a pattern change  Minus 40 air enters down the front range , Moderates a little , this a direct discharge of Artic air ,so  Christmas eve and the day look plenty cold .

ecmwf_t850_noram_41.png

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You have to stop using snowfall maps to analyze models if you want to have any type of realistic idea as to what the guidance is showing. It's simply not fair to base a models performance off its snow total maps, especially with all the different algorithms used around the internet. They're called clown maps for a reason.

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Well said!

 

Also, do you think it is time to un-pin this thread?

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