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December Banter Thread 2

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
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Since we are in between storms, I thought I would post this interesting article I just read.  My initial thought was "damn!  this is brilliant!  Why didn't they think of this sooner?"

 

http://gizmodo.com/these-new-sensors-will-turn-passenger-jets-into-flying-1483992259

There is a private company called AirDAT that has been doing this for awhile now, and giving their data to NWS but it's only temp and windspeed I believe..

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gymengineer

gymengineer

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Reading through the CWG archives is fun. You get to see the early discussions of storms as well as the lessons/not learned from various game-time changes to the forecast.  http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/archives.htm

 

Here's a forecast that made me laugh.... it's obvious which storm this was and what winter this was in based on the wording that I bolded below:

 

"Through tonight: Snow, with perhaps brief rain to start, gets underway by early evening most spots and continues into the night. Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow are possible during the late evening, probably 8 p.m until around midnight. Things taper after, but not before a nice little accumulation. 2-4" seems likely, with some spots receiving a bit more. Lows drop to the mid-and-upper 20s?" 

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Fozz

Fozz

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Reading through the CWG archives is fun. You get to see the early discussions of storms as well as the lessons/not learned from various game-time changes to the forecast.  http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/archives.htm

 

Here's a forecast that made me laugh.... it's obvious which storm this was and what winter this was in based on the wording that I bolded below:

 

"Through tonight: Snow, with perhaps brief rain to start, gets underway by early evening most spots and continues into the night. Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow are possible during the late evening, probably 8 p.m until around midnight. Things taper after, but not before a nice little accumulation. 2-4" seems likely, with some spots receiving a bit more. Lows drop to the mid-and-upper 20s?" 

 

That's what happens when a much bigger storm (Snowmageddon) is on the horizon. Makes 2-4" look petty and minor.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
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The percentages below right as 2/5-6/10 was starting (the article is time stamped at 9:40 am on 2/5/10) are interesting too. No sane person would forecast >26" as the most likely total for any snowstorm in our area. But only a 15% chance? That's understandable and at the same time conservative given all the model data. Even Wes was optimistic about DCA going over 20", which would have likely meant >26" for the NW 'burbs. And of course, that >26" bracket was what verified as soon as you pushed past the beltway into the NW suburbs. 

 

"What are the probabilities of lower or higher amounts of snow than forecast?

Lower amounts would arise if more sleet and/or rain mixes with snow than currently forecast and/or the computer models are overdoing the amount of precipitation they're simulating. Higher amounts are possible if precipitation remains all snow and some of the wetter computer models verify (that are simulating totals in the neighborhood of 25-30", which we think are unlikely but not implausible in a few locations).

10% chance less than 10"
20% chance 10-16" 
55% chance 16-26" (most likely, representing CWG's forecast for the metro region)
15% chance 26"+"

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yoda

yoda

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The percentages below right as 2/5-6/10 was starting (the article is time stamped at 9:40 am on 2/5/10) are interesting too. No sane person would forecast >26" as the most likely total for any snowstorm in our area. But only a 15% chance? That's understandable and at the same time conservative given all the model data. Even Wes was optimistic about DCA going over 20", which would have likely meant >26" for the NW 'burbs. And of course, that >26" bracket was what verified as soon as you pushed past the beltway into the NW suburbs. 

 

"What are the probabilities of lower or higher amounts of snow than forecast?

Lower amounts would arise if more sleet and/or rain mixes with snow than currently forecast and/or the computer models are overdoing the amount of precipitation they're simulating. Higher amounts are possible if precipitation remains all snow and some of the wetter computer models verify (that are simulating totals in the neighborhood of 25-30", which we think are unlikely but not implausible in a few locations).

10% chance less than 10"

20% chance 10-16" 

55% chance 16-26" (most likely, representing CWG's forecast for the metro region)

15% chance 26"+"

 

I feel like that was another life...

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