ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 looked like C-2" to me. Looks like sub 32F at the sfc bleeds into higher elevations between 6-9z Saturday with 0.1-0.3" QPF. I'd definitely say 1-3" at best, with probably a coating-1" closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like sub 32F at the sfc bleeds into higher elevations between 6-9z Saturday with 0.1-0.3" QPF. I'd definitely say 1-3" at best, with probably a coating-1" closer to the coast. it's got a lot working against 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Terrain N and W of HFD will be dicey. Was supposed to go house hunting in Granby and NewHFD with the wife...but i dont do ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is pretty nice...but yeah, its not 3-5"...more like 1-2"...maybe a spot 3 in the monads or something. It's still the most favorable piece of guidance for SNE versus the other models which are more favorable for CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 NAM seems to show a distinct wintry system early on the 7th. Other models seem to have one long rainy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 OT but the d3 system isn't bad on the euro. detes for us on phones? Is my GC qpf fear warranted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro is pretty nice...but yeah, its not 3-5"...more like 1-2"...maybe a spot 3 in the monads or something. It's still the most favorable piece of guidance for SNE versus the other models which are more favorable for CNE. 3 inches on wunderground weenie maps, this should be pinned also. some of us might get more from this than the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe I can put together 1 or 2 from this and 3 or so from Sunday nights event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The new NAM/SREFs are more in line with other guidance now so I'm not expecting much more than 1" across C NH. It looks like the drier air will start winning out by the time that last wave approaches. Maybe the Monads can pull off a few. Maybe it'll keep getting squashed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe I can put together 1 or 2 from this and 3 or so from Sunday nights event. I don't think we see much more than mood flakes. Don't be disappointed if we get little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The new NAM/SREFs are more in line with other guidance now so I'm not expecting much more than 1" across C NH. It looks like the drier air will start winning out by the time that last wave approaches. Maybe the Monads can pull off a few. Maybe it'll keep getting squashed? I expect nothing from this one, My eggs are in the monday basket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro ensembles looked pretty good for SNE as well...maybe an inch or two...esp inland and a bit elevated would help due to marginal sfc temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Let's think maybe 1-3 for now..and hope for a bit of surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I don't think we see much more than mood flakes. Don't be disappointed if we get little to nothing. Oh I won't, but I am hopeful..... Getting to be that time of the year. Wouldn't be surprised either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Let's think maybe 1-3 for now..and hope for a bit of surprise You can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You can. Not sure why you're still against interior folks cashing in on a light snowfall. It's almsot as if you're hoping it doesn't happen. When you guys are in line for snow..we root for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not sure why you're still against interior folks cashing in on a light snowfall. It's almsot as if you're hoping it doesn't happen. When you guys are in line for snow..we root for you 3" will be hard to come by. Maybe an inch or two...the EC shuts off the good mid level lift and RH quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 3" will be hard to come by. Maybe an inch or two...the EC shuts off the good mid level lift and RH quickly. Yeah 1-3..with 3 being max and isolated..I don't think much more than that is possible unless the front comes thru a bit quicker.. But he's been saying the last few days that he was leaning against anyone seeing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah 1-3..with 3 being max and isolated..I don't think much more than that is possible unless the front comes thru a bit quicker.. But he's been saying the last few days that he was leaning against anyone seeing snow These aren't easy setups to get accumulating snow from. But as we get closer and the Euro still looks decent, then it is becoming more likely. We're at the whim of the frontal boundary nuances in timing and amplification. So they aren't easy to forecast days out. The smart hedge is less snow from these....but the trends have been good in the past 24 hours, so perhaps we can pick up an inch or two in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah 1-3..with 3 being max and isolated..I don't think much more than that is possible unless the front comes thru a bit quicker.. But he's been saying the last few days that he was leaning against anyone seeing snow This may also be a more rare rain to sleet to snow situation. It's going to be a race with cold air and moisture left over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The nam look good for 1-2" around here me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not sure why you're still against interior folks cashing in on a light snowfall. It's almsot as if you're hoping it doesn't happen. When you guys are in line for snow..we root for you well i'm not rooting or hoping for anything. that's not why i post here. i like snow as much as anyone but believe it or not, i actually like to forecast and get stuff right. not just hope and pray and so on. i'm being honest. i think odds for anything other than a C-1...maybe a spot 2" total are very low. if you need to put higher numbers on that to make yourself feel better...so be it. i don't care. i think the odds of 3" or 4" or higher are very low. could it happen? i suppose so. but for now, trying to maintain some level of non-wishcasting level-headedness...i'd say a C-2" as a region wide average for an event that's still more than 48 hours out is a safe, reasonable starting point. i don't understand why that's "rooting" for something. this gets old, man. why can't we just be adults. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Could be worse at KPIT. Much time to go though.....this could easily change to wet and then stop. Friday Night: Snow...sleet and rain likely. Cooler with lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Glancing at the 18z GEFS individuals on Ewall... they look pretty wet. Moreso in PA and SNY, but wetter than previous runs. Maybe a little warm though. Anyone with access to better graphics? Looks like a shot of decent snow for mostly the NW fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro link Phil asked me about earlier today http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/ecmwfsnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man I can't tell you guys enough to not trust those snow maps. They are giving out snow amounts with temps above 0C at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Nomar Garciaparra....err I mean Eric Fisher thinks a couple of inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man I can't tell you guys enough to not trust those snow maps. They are giving out snow amounts with temps above 0C at 850. Well especially in a situation like this if the snow algorithm is taking the ending temp profile and creating snow out of the past 6 hour QPF.... that will always be way too high in rain to snow situations with that type of model algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I wish we had stronger forcing from the s/w. That main s/w is so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well especially in a situation like this if the snow algorithm is taking the ending temp profile and creating snow out of the past 6 hour QPF.... that will always be way too high in rain to snow situations with that type of model algorithm. Good grief lol. That sounds like the Kevin Wood algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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