Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Phil you have a good handle on climo down here. What's your take on the potential down our way per the euro? with the friday night "wave"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 with the friday night "wave"? Whichever one everyone is talking about dropping some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Whichever one everyone is talking about dropping some snow. Come back in about a month than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Whichever one everyone is talking about dropping some snow. lol. i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro solution was pretty decent today. Probably an inch or so for most people. Hopefully it sticks. Even this "threat" is still 84-96 hours out. White to the beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 lol. i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. Glad I'm not alone in that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Glad I'm not alone in that thought. there's still plenty of time for it to evolve and it will i'm sure. but overall...right now, not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 lol. i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. Even then I am not convinced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 lol. i don't like our chances with the wave coming up friday night / saturday. i don't really like anyone's chances with it, to be honest, but SE MA/Cape will have a particularly tough time as currently modeled, imo. things don't time out much better than they did with the arctic front back in mid-november and this doesn't look nearly as good. the follow-up system early next week...tough to deny the trends right now which suggest a low impact deal for most of the region..save for probably the ORH hills and Berks points northward. if the cold builds in a bit better, we'd at least see some snow out of it. Thanks. I'm not very excited about anything right now so I appreciate your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Thanks. I'm not very excited about anything right now so I appreciate your input. you're welcome. anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I would actually look forward to a wintry event as the cold air mass leaves sometime next week. This event looks mute to the point that we will be lucky to see some backend snowfall. However the interior will likely see some plowable snowfall if the 18z GFS and NAM are correct as cold air seeps southward in time to change the rain on the front end to snow on the back end. WSWs out for OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 nam coming in alot better and changes rain over to snow earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 nam coming in alot better and changes rain over to snow earlier I'm actually a little excited for some potential surprises Saturday morning. That system may be better for folks in southeast ma than the sunday Monday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough. I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 NAM is best over the interior, but the 72hr NAM equates to the d15 Euro op. At least the chance is there for a changeover to some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah Will, it will be nice to see some snow whether or not it comes down heavily or not. It will be just interesting to see how it plays out the next 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What will that intense 130+ knot upper level jet divergence do for the precip shield as it heads up this way? The NAM shows this feature originating over the southwestern US and out over the open Pacific ocean. The southwesterly upper level jet intensifies as the third wave of precip enters Dallas, TX and then lightens up some but not until it heads over AR with a heavy burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough. I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad. The last passage is a case in point. No frozen of note in spite of some models suggesting a bit of a coating. I'm holding out hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 NAM shows some good signs, although over amplification could be a sign of error on its biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If we can get a nice 2-3 hour burst, then we can get an inch or so. We need a nice burst though because I always hate relying on the cold air to filter in as the precip is going...a good shot of moderate or better precip usually helps once the boundary layer is just starting to get cold enough. I'm still not very optimistic on this one, and any snow we get I'll treat as a nice bonus...but at least its still hanging around on guidance. The Euro today was actually not bad. Snow will be on the ground... Snow White so bright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Snow will be on the ground... Snow White so brightHvy hvy ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro gives interior SNE a couple of inches overnight Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro gives interior SNE a couple of inches overnight Friday It's actually fairly widespread it seems, but it's not a high prob forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's actually fairly widespread it seems, but it's not a high prob forecast. Yeah it looks like all the way even to the Cape it flips. Man let's get this to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's actually fairly widespread it seems, but it's not a high prob forecast. And I'm really concerned that there will be little qpf left in GC by the time the cooler air moves in. I think HubbDave will be among the big winners as it looks to me this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 LOL..DT already has a first guess map out..Has 2-6 inches up to border of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 LOL..DT already has a first guess map out..Has 2-6 inches up into SNE congrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 And I'm really concerned that there will be little qpf left in GC by the time the cooler air moves in. I think HubbDave will be among the big winners as it looks to me this morning. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6"?? I want what DT is having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6"?? I want what DT is having. he's doing maps in MM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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