CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's like Lucy setting up the football for Charlie Brown. Arrrrrrgggghhhhhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro ensembles are pretty weenieish too...they are cold. Hopefully for the snow-inclined we can lay down an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 ecens mean is about 0.25" up here after the profile is cold enough for snow. The NAM can diaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 1-3 lolli's to 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 1-3 lolli's to 4? Prob for Monads to GC...maybe N ORH hills. Further south, I'd probably go C-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Prob for Monads to GC...maybe N ORH hills. Further south, I'd probably go C-2". Those areas look like 3-5 ..lolli's to 6..south iof that 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Arrrrrrgggghhhhhhh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 yea very much a weenie map, no chance at them verifying I think. The algorithm might be counting sleet as snow. But I don't think the wunderground snowfall maps are so terrible. Certainly not as bad as others I've seen. If the warmest layer is near 850mb, then it could be close to right. 1-3" for most of SNE with 4-6" in the hills and isolated spots in the Berks 6+. The Euro has gotten wetter and is now basically in line with the NAM and RGEM for QPF. But it remains on the cold side of guidance... hence a snowy solution. If you believe the Euro, you gotta forecast some kind of accumulating snow tomorrow night almost everywhere (except maybe the south coast). Personally I would go slightly more conservative than the Euro and keep an eye on model/radar trends tomorrow, but to me this is rapidly becoming a legit snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Meh most ares less then an inch but I think they are low http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Meh most ares less then an inch but I think they are low http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php There is 0 percent chance or 1 inch of snow anywhere south of Worcester? I think that's pretty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Meh most ares less then an inch but I think they are low http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php lol at the word "None" repeated over and over again. NO SNOW FOR YOU!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think some of the amounts being thrown around are a bit high On the other hand, today has been colder than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There is 0 percent chance or 1 inch of snow anywhere south of Worcester? I think that's pretty interesting thing is...it's a really short window of time for precip to fall as snow for a big chunk of the area. notice how even on the cape the precip is done by 12z. a lot of the area...it's 9z. assuming it is perfectly time to flip at the 850 0C line (which it won't be) that gives a short window. it could come down as sleet before that time as the 925 to 8h layer looks chilly...but from 8h to 7h it's still mild...and the SBL is also "warm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hopefully they are makin that map from a powderfreak perspective of setting the bar low, so KTAN is not dissapointed in what falls ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Zfp for gc still includes zr and up tomorrow afternoon and a total accum up to an inch. Whoo hoo. finally boarding ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 gfs looks good ct border north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's a unique relationship. Like, when we tell him something is going to happen...he ignores...gives a P&C forecast post...and then guess what...it happens. they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 gfs looks good ct border north Its a short window though....but it looks like a nice 2-3 hour burst perhaps. ORH is marginal snow by 06z and then maybe another 2 tenths falls. But if you lose an extra hour or two to sleet, then you end up with like 0.7" of snow instead of 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. Which one..the one when we said you'll have snow and ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hopefully they are makin that map from a powderfreak perspective of setting the bar low, so KTAN is not dissapointed in what falls ha I think we see a coating to an inch at most here. But to show zilch anywhere south of Worcester I think is a little extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seems like everything is in agreement for a decent snowfall for most except the GFS ..which again is the outlier. I know which one not to use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seems like everything is in agreement for a decent snowfall for most except the GFS ..which again is the outlier. I know which one not to use GFS isn't really an outlier. The NAM is right now being the warmest (and probably the wettest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 GFS isn't really an outlier. The NAM is right now being the warmest (and probably the wettest)Oh , I thought someone posted the Nam was much colder at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Which one..the one when we said you'll have snow and ice?Piggy pile. Jk But I am not convinced the changeover happens quickly yet. Seems manky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Oh , I thought someone posted the Nam was much colder at 18z Colder than its 12z run, but it is still fairly warm compared to the Euro especially...GFS is kind of in between, same with RGEM though it cooled again at 18z, starting to look more like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 SREFs are getting more and more bullish for SNE....NAM is coming in a little colder again, but still not quite as cool as the Euro and company: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 oz nam looks slightly colder at 33z compared to the 18z run at 39z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 SREFs are getting more and more bullish for SNE....NAM is coming in a little colder again, but still not quite as cool as the Euro and company: I think I sit in a pretty good spot here. Would like to be a little bit further north and west. Looks like rain to start then maybe a good period of IP and potential to finish off with 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Seems a bit much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The moisture in this system has been ramping up too...that's partially why it might be interesting even if we only get a couple hour burst of snow to end it. It could be heavy enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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