Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[burgertime]

I'll say this again, why are people looking at the 10+ day GFS? This really needs to stop.

 

Case in point the 00z GFS. Turns that great 18z fantasy storm into a nice warm Miller B giving the Ohio Valley a blizzard.

[BullCityWx]

I'll say this again, why are people looking at the 10+ day GFS? This really needs to stop.

That's what we do now.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

53% of US covered in snow last weekend...highest this early in a decade.

http://m.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/half-the-us-is-already-covered-with-snow/2013/12/20/84203c36-682d-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_print.html

that's kind of deceiving. I wonder how much of the population actually has snow on the ground where they live. Maybe 20% at most.

[SN_Lover]

0z GFS analysis

Oscillations:

*NAO starts off positive then trends negative through hour 135. The NAO trends positive through hour 300. The NAO trends neutral then positive at the end of the run.

*AO starts off positive then trends negative through hour 156. The AO then trends positive through hour 240. The AO then trends toward neutral through hour 312. The AO then trends slightly below neutral through the end of the run.

*PDO starts off neutral then trends positive through hour 141. The PDO then trends negative to the end of the run.  

 

The best chance of winter Precip appears to be between now and the 30^th of December. After that things will start to warm up. Note: This is only going off of one model run and one model. 

[dsaur]

The 0z is awfully dry.  Won't matter it it's cold or not.  Need to see some rain showing under 10 days.  T

[SN_Lover]

The 0z is awfully dry.  Won't matter it it's cold or not.  Need to see some rain showing under 10 days.  T

sometimes troughs have nasty drawbacks XD

[jburns]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/user/108-h2o/

 

lol  Nice.

[dsaur]

sometimes troughs have nasty drawbacks XD

Yeah, and the 0 line doesn't even make it to Waygone.  And poor Phil gets left out again.   Goofy used to be pretty good at putting the 0 line in Cuba, if it's showing this much dry   I hope the models can get to where they can see something 3 days out, instead of the constant surprises, lol.  I expect we'll see some rain showing up before truncation in a few more runs. T

[WeatherNC]

Canadian holds serve with a sfc low coming out of the Gulf ~day 6. Pure southern stream disturbance, 564dm heights well removed into the MA. A few of the GFS mems have been toying with the idea, mostly well offshore. Days 7 and 8 appear to have sufficient cold in place.

[DaculaWeather]

that's kind of deceiving. I wonder how much of the population actually has snow on the ground where they live. Maybe 20% at most.

Actually, on December 9th, 67% of the country had snow cover. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_snow_analysis.php

 

[DaculaWeather]

[FallsLake]

Case in point the 00z GFS. Turns that great 18z fantasy storm into a nice warm Miller B giving the Ohio Valley a blizzard.

Totally agree that looking past 10 days is unwise. Will only lead to disappointment. **but just for fun, the storm is back on the 6z.

 

[burgertime]

Shocked no one mentioned the Euro last night. Has a little disturbance rolling through on the 31st giving some of WNC some snow. Appears to be flurries across most of the state and into upstate SC. Of course it's a clipper but with a good bit of cold air aloft it could possibly squeeze out something good. Will probably change five times in the next three days. 

[Poimen]

From JB's Twitter feed: "Party over in southeast as core of Jan cold shifts east and south from December. UKMET day 15 strat warm classic"

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/415459404335439872/photo/1

[BullCityWx]

Not sure if it matches up with the ENS mean but the Euro Control has really backed off on the cold air for the past two runs.

[Cold Rain]

Shocked no one mentioned the Euro last night. Has a little disturbance rolling through on the 31st giving some of WNC some snow. Appears to be flurries across most of the state and into upstate SC. Of course it's a clipper but with a good bit of cold air aloft it could possibly squeeze out something good. Will probably change five times in the next three days. 

 

Yep, it digs pretty far south.  We need to see a tall PNA ridge develop.  Hopefully it will evolve.

 

The 0z GFS wasn't very pretty in terms of either cold or snow threats.  The 6z was better, but it still looked to warm up late in the run.

[Jon]

Not sure if it matches up with the ENS mean but the Euro Control has really backed off on the cold air for the past two runs.

Hmm...Euro ens mean stays colder than normal throughout the run across much of the US down to Fl, although not incredibly cold due to that it's spreading the trough out all the way past cuba and has no idea what it's doing.

 

This Euro control looks a little funky, just look at the last frame and tell me if you see that happening..lol

[Cold Rain]

I'm not that omnivorant - just sharing what's out there!

 

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!

 

Merry Christmas to you too!  The CFS is cold again in the east for January.  Probably won't take long to flip back warm again.

[Southern Track]

Today's Indeces:

PNA looks to go and sustain a slightly positive run.

AO still headed negative but not as demonstrative as yesterday's run.

NAO headed slightly negative to neutral.

[franklin NCwx]

Not sure if it matches up with the ENS mean but the Euro Control has really backed off on the cold air for the past two runs.

500mb on the ensembles looks good. Ao starting to go strongly negative, would like to see more of a negative nao signal but it looks to be heading that way.

[WXinCanton]

Shocked no one mentioned the Euro last night. Has a little disturbance rolling through on the 31st giving some of WNC some snow. Appears to be flurries across most of the state and into upstate SC. Of course it's a clipper but with a good bit of cold air aloft it could possibly squeeze out something good. Will probably change five times in the next three days. 

 

Was just looking at that.  Not sure if its really a clipper, looks like the energy scoots down the front range of the Rockies

[burgertime]

Was just looking at that.  Not sure if its really a clipper, looks like the energy scoots down the front range of the Rockies

 

Yea it evolved in a funky way...I guess I should have clarified and said, "clipper type system" 

[WidreMann]

Hmm...Euro ens mean stays colder than normal throughout the run across much of the US down to Fl, although not incredibly cold due to that it's spreading the trough out all the way past cuba and has no idea what it's doing.

 

This Euro control looks a little funky, just look at the last frame and tell me if you see that happening..lol

The operational Euro basically says we get a 3-5 day "cold" period, and then everything breaks down: ridge in WPac gone, the -NAO never develops and then goes major positive, and the AO is back to neutral. The stratosphere is not showing any signs of warming or weakening the polar vortex. As long as that's true, we're not going to see any real cold and stormy pattern develop given the negative features going into this year.

[Chattownsnow]

that s/w that would cause the storm in early January needs to get here quicker or its going to cut right through the Ohio Valley. It just gets hung up in the southwest too long and the cold air just doesn't have the staying power before it comes through, if one comes through at all.

[burgertime]

This run of the 12z GFS basically says just some cold fronts and then the SE ridge builds back up. Just looking at the SFC there appears to be a lack of all the good teleconnections but not horrible. 

[tarheelwx]

Yes but 3 storms out of the gulf over the next 16 days.

TW

[packbacker]

12z GFS run has the PV retreating NE allowing for the runner, will see if ENS support that. By the end of the run the PV comes back and you have a solid -AO/-NAO.

[Jon]

The operational Euro basically says we get a 3-5 day "cold" period, and then everything breaks down: ridge in WPac gone, the -NAO never develops and then goes major positive, and the AO is back to neutral. The stratosphere is not showing any signs of warming or weakening the polar vortex. As long as that's true, we're not going to see any real cold and stormy pattern develop given the negative features going into this year.

Yeah, I think Op runs are going to have their problems for a while until we get settled into this first dive of cold as it's locked, basically. Whether it's transient or sustained is still up in the air, but if I were to choose a solution I'd take the 00z Euro eps mean over the Op 100% of the time.

[WidreMann]

Yeah, I think Op runs are going to have their problems for a while until we get settled into this first dive of cold as it's locked, basically. Whether it's transient or sustained is still up in the air, but if I were to choose a solution I'd take the 00z Euro eps mean over the Op 100% of the time.

The case was never very strong for a true pattern change. What we had was the models showing a -AO, but weakly positive PNA and neutral to positive NAO. The hope was that this would be the first step of a real change to a wintry pattern, but it's becoming clear that it probably won't be. I'll bank on the OPI and snow cover, with its great correlation, over 10+ day model runs.

[bobbitt]

The case was never very strong for a true pattern change. What we had was the models showing a -AO, but weakly positive PNA and neutral to positive NAO. The hope was that this would be the first step of a real change to a wintry pattern, but it's becoming clear that it probably won't be. I'll bank on the OPI and snow cover, with its great correlation, over 10+ day model runs.

the neg talk can be a joke, i see no such thing. , when u have a pattern change it's good too look at ensembles until the op catches on .