DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I don't see any record highs for the next 10 days. That's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The 00Z Op Euro is an extremely cold blast for all of the East. Highs in ATL in the low-mid 20s a week from Friday. This will probably not not happen per se, but given the -NAO and AO I would expect that parts of the SE could easily see the coldest air in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The 00Z Op Euro is an extremely cold blast for all of the East. Highs in ATL in the low-mid 20s a week from Friday. This will probably not not happen per se, but given the -NAO and AO I would expect that parts of the SE could easily see the coldest air in many years. KATL down to an insanely cold -17 C at 850 at 12Z on 1/3 on the 0Z 12/25 Euro. Odds very high the Euro is overdoing it but interesting nonetheless. KATL sometimes goes years between -17C or colder 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 6Z GFS has a cold look in the same time period as the Euro. -27 850's touch extreme north GA and -18 around Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 So frigid air and dry? Go figure. KATL down to an insanely cold -17 C at 850 at 12Z on 1/3 on the 0Z 12/25 Euro. Odds very high the Euro is overdoing it but interesting nonetheless. KATL sometimes goes years between -17C or colder 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 **** me. I don't know why I was being optimistic. it was so rare those posts just kind of blended in with the others! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 We really badly want to root for a solution like the 6z if we get cold coming in in about 10 days. The euro spins up a Miller B while the GFS does a big phase to help pull down more cold air with it. More than likely the Euro is correct as you gotta bet the streak as some like to say around here. Either way both are advertising big time cold right on time with Robert's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 So frigid air and dry? Go figure. the way it always is if its cold its dry, go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 here is a comparison of the GFS runs from 18z to 06z only out to 120hrs. the differences are huge and really show why no one should get excited or heart broken by the runs in the coming days. Timing of features as shown by the GFS is no where near resolved even in the 108-120 hr time frame. 108hr - 06Z 120hr - 18z The GFS has no idea what to do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Can anybody remember a colder run of the GFS than this 6z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 This is the first time in a LONG time we will NOT be dealing with another washout this weekend. .The models saw this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The indices are looking sort of bad today. It's possible the AO might not even go negative. The NAO is neutral to weakly positive. The PNA is okay I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The indices are looking sort of bad today. It's possible the AO might not even go negative. The NAO is neutral to weakly positive. The PNA is okay I guess. ....no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 0z Euro really starts to take the NAO toward negative just after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The indices are looking sort of bad today. It's possible the AO might not even go negative. The NAO is neutral to weakly positive. The PNA is okay I guess.euro ensembles disagree with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Merry Christmas!Bastardi released a special 20 day outlook this morning. Subscribers should give it a read.General synopsis: For those of us that like winter weather, the upcoming pattern is one to deliver it.My comments:The SE ridge will be routed out, but for how long, we'll have to see if it has quick come back tendencies like it did in late November.Although way to early to deal with specifics, the 0z ECMWF has some -30c H850 temps over KY that stay north of NC with NC High Country getting into the -22c air. The model puts the mountains at -8f surface but for some strange reason only brings the Piedmont down to the low 20s. Reviewed verbatium, it also shows a 4" snowfall NW of I-40 in NW corner of the state. All of the above on Friday 03JAN13. For comparison, the GFS was colder both in the in NC Highcountry and the Piedmont with -10f surface in the mountains, some values below 0f west of I-77 and 0f to 5f surface readings out into the Piedmont. (See maps posted by Jon lower in this thread) The continuity on upcoming model runs over the next week will be interesting to watch. Here is the 'Big One' to compare to in most of our lifetimes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Go take advantage of the sale in the model center today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Can anybody remember a colder run of the GFS than this 6z run? GFS was cold the other day when I posted temp maps and Widre got all pissed. I'm only out to 162hr for 2mT minimum so I'm not sure, but it was showing single digit lows in NC, course that was outside 300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 ....no.It looks like it is split into two camps.Half of them look to remain neutral then a few go positive. Overall though, most eventually get the AO negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 For comparison. Cold is modeled to come much earlier. 06z GFS 12/23 Today's 06z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Can anybody remember a colder run of the GFS than this 6z run? Yes, I can remember a few colder runs for the SE US. After all, this is the GFS, which has been badly cold biased at times. Back in the not cold winter of 2001-2 (after the May, 2001 major modification to reduce fake tropical cyclone geneses), the GFS had numerous way colder than reality runs including several runs that were showing alltime historic SE cold. JB was riding the GFS that winter to a forecast debacle. (For those who don't know, it was called the MRF/Aviation model suite back then.) Since then, I vaguely recall a couple of runs that were colder than today's 6Z in at least GA. I'm almost sure there have been a couple of runs after 2001-2 that had ATL colder than -21C at 850...I think around -23 to -24C. I'm confident I would have posted them at WWBB or Eastern. Today's 6Z GFS has ATL down to -21C as of 6Z of 1/4/14, which would tie their alltime record coldest 850 going back to around 1948. Regarding 2 meter temp.'s, I've seen quite a bit colder runs at ATL and RDU than the single digits being shown on this 6Z (shows 3 at ATL, 5 at RDU, and 14 at Savannah). This run has RDU down to a "stupid" cold -25C and Savannah down to a pretty stupid cold -15C at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Larry, I should've qualified that with no snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GFS is close to popping a storm in the SE day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Larry, I should've qualified that with no snowcover. Regarding whether or not I've seen a colder GFS run without snowcover than today's 6Z run, I can't answer because I don't remember the snowcover or lack thereof on the coldest runs I've seen. Maybe not although I wouldn't bet against a run or two without snowcover that got ATL colder than 3 at two meters. I just don't know though. Regardless, this is one of the coldest runs at 850 in much of the SE US in years. If it were to somehow verify, we'd be near alltime record cold 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The GFS is close to popping a storm in the SE day 6. The Euro showed this a couple of days ago too, than lost it. GFS gives NC a dusting, mtns maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 What's the 12z GFS looking like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The Euro showed this a couple of days ago too, than lost it. GFS gives NC a dusting, mtns maybe an inch. It wouldn't take a whole lot to make this a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 GFS has 1''-2'' of rain now for Sunday,that sorta came out of nowhere itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 What's the 12z GFS looking like Our coastal low that I noticed on last night's 18z is now inland...rainy Saturday Night/Sunday for Georgia and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Here is the 'Big One' to compare to January 21 1985. Surface temperatures in the NC Mountains got down to a record -34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.