wxmeddler Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Maybe it's just me, but I'm having a hard time thinking Mt. Vortmax is getting 4-6" Yeah, I'm not buying the euro "snowfall" output.. It's getting confused with multiple crossings of the melting layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Maybe it's just me, but I'm having a hard time thinking Mt. Vortmax is getting 4-6" It's not just you. That map is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It's not just you. That map is awful.It's alright but around here most of the b should be grouped with c probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Decent first guess by DT - http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stguess.jpg Good thing we aren't in Section D LOL. He has me in 4-12...I will post pictures of my rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I really like dec 4-8 for our first snow. You should start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Decent first guess by DT - http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stguess.jpg Good thing we aren't in Section D Wow that is terrible. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 MECL'ol precip may sh*t off according to DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 precip may sh*t off according to DT. pesky dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wow that is terrible. lol. When can we expect your map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Is the euro that different from the gfs? I can't see much snow at all from the gfs. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 When can we expect your map? Making one later today. Let me say all snow will be well west of where he has it, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Is the euro that different from the gfs? I can't see much snow at all from the gfs. What am I missing? gfs is mostly rain around this region.. probably less snowy than the euro as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 gfs is mostly rain around this region.. probably less snowy than the euro as is. I figured it must be different. Does it have the two lows like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I would be worried about the usual low lying areas, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I would be worried about the usual low lying areas, no? Not really...progressive storm + dry antecedent conditions would yield make a puddle or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 MDZ001-PAZ076-WVZ023-041-250415- /O.CAN.KPBZ.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-131125T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ GARRETT-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE... KINGWOOD...PARSONS 312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIDGES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. * SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIER SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT. * PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Not really...progressive storm + dry antecedent conditions would yield make a puddle or two. I grew up in So Jersey. The roads seemed always flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I I grew up in So Jersey. The roads seemed always flooded Where in South Jersey? I grew up in Vineland. Always had flooded streets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 lol, NAM gives my house around 4 inches of rain. Right now I'm riding the Euro car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM shows the srn stream vortmax tracking right over us. I would never use the NAM to make an actual forecast and I assume it's wrong, but this is what needs to happen for us to get back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Where in South Jersey? I grew up in Vineland. Always had flooded streets there. I grew up in Pennsauken. Rt. 130 always flooded in a couple really low areas under underpasses, but otherwise we didn't flood much. Helps being in a somewhat swampy area - water always has somewhere to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM shows the srn stream vortmax tracking right over us. I would never use the NAM to make an actual forecast and I assume it's wrong, but this is what needs to happen for us to get back end snow. yep, and it looks to give us "some" on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 lol, NAM gives my house around 4 inches of rain. Right now I'm riding the Euro car. No. Paddle the NAM boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 yep, and it looks to give us "some" on this run Leery be the man who sees modeled back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 this system is still 42 hrs away from 18z today from dropping precip on us and 48 hrs away from the steady precip that's a million years in model time not that I expect a snow storm, but that's enough time to tweak things for some back end action, whether it be a coating or an inch or 2 under the best case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Leery be the man who sees modeled back end snow. it's all we got so I'm goin' fer it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I grew up in Pennsauken. Rt. 130 always flooded in a couple really low areas under underpasses, but otherwise we didn't flood much. Helps being in a somewhat swampy area - water always has somewhere to go. Lol. Maple Shade here. Rte 130 was a nightmare at the underpass. Then, if you made your way south toward Runnemede et al, it was always iffy. Road infrastructure is still fairly awful in the south down the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Reading between the lines of mitch's very subtle posts over the last couple days makes me kinda think he's hoping for some snow out of this storm but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Lol. Maple Shade here. Rte 130 was a nightmare at the underpass. Then, if you made your way south toward Runnemede et al, it was always iffy. Road infrastructure is still fairly awful in the south down the Pike. It's always funny to hear of someone in this area that grew up in South Jersey...especially somewhere so close. Yup. 130 is just an awful road. It's gotten a little better in recent years, but it's still pretty much crap overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 No. Paddle the NAM boat. I'm afraid it has leak. I'll be expecting rain and hoping to see a back end flake or two. Back end snow around here is usually a lose, lose game, sort of like watching the Skins recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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