Wonderdog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It will still shift some I'm sure...what do you think?....I have no idea, but I could see the current modeled solution being close to correct Once the storm passes by us, is the cold air coming in as cold as it will be tomorrow and if so does that give us any clues as to how quick it will come in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Think we are coming toward a solution. I could see things maybe de-amplifying a bit (or at least per last euro) and the cold trying to press a bit harder. The air mass moderates out ahead of it but not anything major and then there's another cold high pressing in on the storm. I kinda doubt we'll get 3" of rain but maybe. yeah...looks like the GFS is now about 75-100 mi east of the euro...I think youre right and the euro will de-amp and trend east some....GFS might have found the ultimate solution or close....who know...track will be important...GFS is a pretty nice snow event for berkshires, southern VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It will be a cold rain from the likes of it. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Once the storm passes by us, is the cold air coming in as cold as it will be tomorrow and if so does that give us any clues as to how quick it will come in? the thanksgiving air mass is insane is the GFS is right...upper 20s for highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Think we are coming toward a solution. I could see things maybe de-amplifying a bit (or at least per last euro) and the cold trying to press a bit harder. The air mass moderates out ahead of it but not anything major and then there's another cold high pressing in on the storm. I kinda doubt we'll get 3" of rain but maybe. I do kind of doubt the NAM solution of wrapping everything up and driving us into the 50s to near 60... and having it pass harmlessly out to sea doesnt quite make sense either... I think this run makes the most kind of sense though watching it leave behind the ULL to just drift east out to sea in the later hours seems a lil suspect to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 "I could see things maybe de-amplifying a bit (or at least per last euro) and the cold trying to press a bit harder..." That is my thinking as well. Especially if we can get the storm cranking like the Euro in the position of the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 That is my thinking as well. Especially if we can get the storm cranking like the Euro in the position of the 00z GFS. the euro seemed way too warm at the sfc last run at least in part. even running a low just to our east wouldn't likely get dc to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 congrats gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_39.png Bullseyed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 From the sound of all of you, this still might produce some snow. This is fun tracking interesting weather for Thanksgiving. Better than pc and low 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm just glad it's going to finally feel like fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm just glad it's going to finally feel like fall! the coldest fall ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ....GFS might have found the ultimate solution or close.... The 850 mb low would be OK but it seems to open up when it gets to the Mid-Atlantic and that could be a signal that cold air advection is not going to hold. The 850 mb temperatures crash soon after but at the same exact time, the 700 mb moisture shuts off. My hunch is cold rain shifting to flurries at the end. On the NW side of the big cities, there could be a frozen crusting at the end. Something has to block the cold air advection from progressing in order to get accumulating snow east of the foothills. North side of Winchester looks very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 CMC says no to GFS, still takes 998 right over Baltimore. Very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The Canadian being wrapped up and warm is not newsworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The Canadian being wrapped up and warm is not newsworthy. Seeing how it is beating the GFS as of late. I'd say it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 UKMET massively phased too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ukmet phased and more consolidated than other models. 998 over Georgia to 975 over Burlington between 72 and 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ukmet phased and more consolidated than other models. 998 over Georgia to 975 over Burlington between 72 and 96hrs. GFS probably still in catch up mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro very amped, very wet, very warm. GFS blows. 996 over south central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro very amped, very wet, very warm. GFS blows. Almost identical to the NAM at H5 and at the surface at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost identical to the NAM at H5 and at the surface at hr 72. Just when we thought the NAM was off its rocker... the EURO joins it and UKIE comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Almost identical to the NAM at H5 and at the surface at hr 72. Got my boat ready for holiday travel instead of my snow mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just when we thought the NAM was off its rocker... the EURO joins it and UKIE comes close This is actually the closest I've seen the NAM and euro agree 72hrs out. Usually the NAM is off it's rocker at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Thing wraps up so much cold air starts to funnel in and it turns to snow NW of the cities about .2-.3" qpf below freezing. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 IAD at 3.6" of rain at 90hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 IAD at 3.6" of rain at 90hrs Thats about where the NAM would be if it went past 84 hrs... it was closing in or at 3" at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This run is full on phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Thing wraps up so much cold air starts to funnel in and it turns to snow NW of the cities about .2-.3" qpf below freezing. I'd take it. no it doesnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 no it doesnt I am looking right at the SV map. Ya it does. I said NW of the cities, like HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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