BTRWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Jan 11 stands out pretty big in that dept. What year? Jan 11, 2013 had dca as all liquid, or did you mean January 2011? Ah, I see it now for 1/26/11. I do not remember that event beginning frozen at the onset, but obs do not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just popping in to let you guys know that the 0z suite will NOT be telling. do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What year? Jan 11, 2013 had dca as all liquid. Commutageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Sorry Wes, the GFS is dog vomit. Why is this "person" not 5 posted? The model bashing and hyperbole makes these threads unpleasant to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 You don't set goals on the low end. And ..... There's a lot of potential crow being served up in this thread. Possible turkey day appetizer for some. I understand your post. But you have to remember that most of the discussion here is so far east of us that we are really not in the same conversation. I think its likely that we see snow from this. But not the 4-12 that DT is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What year? Jan 11, 2013 had dca as all liquid, or did you mean January 2011? Ah, I see it now for 1/26/11. I do not remember that event beginning frozen at the onset, but obs do not lie. Some areas West of balt had 4" overnight and morning IIRC. I think I got an inch or 1.5 but it's a bit foggy. I had a 103 fever and the flu that day. I couldnt even enjoy the storm and losing power was evil punishment as I shivered under a mountain of blankets. And worst of all....that's the last time my driveway needed a shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Some areas West of balt had 4" overnight and morning IIRC. I think I got an inch or 1.5 but it's a bit foggy. I had a 103 fever and the flu that day. I couldnt even enjoy the storm and losing power was evil punishment as I shivered under a mountain of blankets. And worst of all....that's the last time my driveway needed a shovel. I had around 3" in the morning, snizzle all day and then another 8" in the evening thump I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I had around 3" in the morning, snizzle all day and then another 8" in the evening thump I think. Didn't we get a shot of rain before the changeover? My memory isnt good with this one. I thought it was raining pretty good around metro dc before it switched to white asteroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Best rain to snow events I remember. I am not sure all of these produce snow in the mid atlantic. Most of these closed off an H7 over New england and had cooler 850 temps behind the front. 4/8/2000 3/8/2005 - Personal favorite flash freeze Commutmageddon NYC metro. 1/15/2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Didn't we get a shot of rain before the changeover? My memory isnt good with this one. I thought it was raining pretty good around metro dc before it switched to white asteroids. Yes, even up here we had some rain and slop for a period of about 1-2 hours before we switched to pure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 I thought DTs map looked spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes, even up here we had some rain and slop for a period of about 1-2 hours before we switched to pure snow. Best meteorology night class cancellation I had with the best thundery rain-snow transition I ever experienced that afternoon! I hope too many folks don't mind too much about the flashbacks while awaiting the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Best meteorology night class cancellation I had with the best thundery rain-snow transition I ever experienced that afternoon! I hope too many folks don't mind too much about the flashbacks while awaiting the 0Z suite. Yup. Pretty awesome event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Didn't we get a shot of rain before the changeover? My memory isnt good with this one. I thought it was raining pretty good around metro dc before it switched to white asteroids. I don't really remember it really raining heavily. It drizzled about all day between the shots of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I mean I can se what you're saying, but at the same time based on current models and history, back end snow isn't a good bet. Look, if anybody here has reason to hope, it's you and those out that way. I wouldn't rule anything out back there. I agree. Snow of consequence is a long shot.A longer shot is making a definitive statement about weather 60 hours in advance. Funny how the most knowledgeable people here never do that. Oh well, probably shouldn't even have mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I understand your post. But you have to remember that most of the discussion here is so far east of us that we are really not in the same conversation. I think its likely that we see snow from this. But not the 4-12 that DT is seeing. What DT sees is probably a lot better look than you, I, or many others here could hope to give. People need to be very careful in LOLing a post by a pro. It ain't like he predicted 4-12 for his back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I don't really remember it really raining heavily. It drizzled about all day between the shots of snow. Seems like I remember areas around Baltimore getting a good shot of snow that morning and when the precip let up is when the drizzle happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 What DT sees is probably a lot better look than you, I, or many others here could hope to give. People need to be very careful in LOLing a post by a pro. It ain't like he predicted 4-12 for his back yard. I have all the respect in the world for DT when it comes to winter storms. The man knows his ****. But he has had his share of busts just like anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Best rain to snow events I remember. I am not sure all of these produce snow in the mid atlantic. Most of these closed off an H7 over New england and had cooler 850 temps behind the front. 4/8/2000 3/8/2005 - Personal favorite flash freeze Commutmageddon NYC metro. 1/15/2006 4/9 hit some of the burbs....3/8 hit everyone...1/15....no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 4/9 hit some of the burbs....3/8 hit everyone...1/15....no Those are bold predictions for this upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Seems like I remember areas around Baltimore getting a good shot of snow that morning and when the precip let up is when the drizzle happened. Yes, it was very rate dependent. Light precip was rain, heavier was snow. Even during the evening snow thump, the surface temp was ~33F IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 21z SREFs are super wet (sorry Mitch!) Haven't seen QPF values up that high that far out for 24 hr QPF in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 DT work for HPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 DT work for HPC? That looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I had around 3" in the morning, snizzle all day and then another 8" in the evening thump I think. Yup, i had 4" on the front end and 9" on the backend. The JFX was a disaster that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Woody was in great form today... TUE - WED...PRVS FCST FOR MIDWK RMNS ON TRACK.MDLS HV COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24 HRS AGO REGARDINGTHE SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE MID ALTC..AND ENTIRE E CST...TUE AND WED. THIS IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM INVOLVING 2 STREAMS OF UPRLVL ENERGY. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LK THE 2 SHORT WVS WON`T PHASEUNTIL REACHING LONG ISLAND/NEW ENGLAND...SO WE`LL BE CONCENTRATING ON THELOW COMING FM THE NRN GULFMEX.THE "DOUBLE LOW" PROJECTED BY THE MDLS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ISN`TALTOGETHER UNCOMMON...BUT I DON`T THINK I`VE SEEN IT A LOT EITHER.ONE GOLDEN RULE OF WINTER FCSTG IS "THE MORE COMPLICATED THE SYSTEMTHE LESS SNOW WL FALL" BUT I`M NOT SURE WE`RE GOING TO BE SEEINGMUCH SNOW OVR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY NOT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SOMEFACTORS WORKING AGAINST WNTRY PCPN A) IT IS STILL VERY EARLY IN THESEASON. I DON`T LOOK AT THIS MUCH ANYMORE BUT THE 1000-500 THCKNSIS WELL ABV THE 540 DM VALUE - AT 00Z WED THAT LN IS ACROSS OH...AT12Z OVR CNTRAL W.V. AND APRCHG THE MTNS AT 18Z WED. C) IN THE LOWERLVLS THE 1000-850 MB THCKNS DOES NOT GO SUB 1300 M IN THE WRN PARTOF THE CWA UNTIL 12Z WED...AND FINALLY D) IT APPEARS THERE WL BEA STRONG SERLY FLOW TUE/TUE NGT. THE OCEAN TEMP OFF THE VA CAPESIS IN THE M50S.BEST CHC FOR WINTRY PCPN IN OUR CWA WL BE WED EVE...BUT BY THAT TIMETHE MAIN LOW WL BE SO FAR N THAT QPF/SNOW ACCUM WL BE MINIMAL."BACKSIDE OF LOW WELL N" IS NOT MUCH OF A SNOW CREATOR FOR US.THE FORECAST IS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS ANDWEST...BETTER ALL-SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHLANDS...AND STAYINGMOSTLY A COLD RAIN OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOR WED. WPC RAFL TOTALSFOR THE EVENT CLOSE TO 4". THAT IS A LOT OF RAIN. IF THAT DOESOCCUR ONE THING THAT WL MOST LKLY BE HALTED ARE THE WILDFIRESGOING ON IN THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...AS WELL AS NEED FORRFW`S LK THE ONE THAT WAS ISSUED TDA.AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE APLCNS LATE WED...THE COLD AIRWILL MOVE IN FROM BEHIND AND LIKELY CHANGEOVER LINGERING PRECIP TOSNOW FURTHER EAST AS THE EVE/NIGHT PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIERBATCHES OF PRECIP MAY ALREADY BE SLIDING E OF THE AREA BY THEN -WHICH IS WHERE SOME OF THE LARGEST LINGERING DISCREPANCIES STILLREMAIN. SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THESE MED RANGE MODELS SHOULD COME INTOBETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS GRADUALLY...AS THEY DID FOR THE TUEACTIVITY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z NAM Picks up on some llvl cold air and drops about .1 QPF from 06z to 12z TUES before being scoured out by WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z NAM Picks up on some llvl cold air and drops about .1 QPF from 06z to 12z TUES before being scoured out by WAA Don't laugh too hard. We do well with that stuff. The srefs you mentioned earlier also have it to an extent. Of course timing of precip is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And ofc the 00z NAM goes dual lows tonight... and shoves I-95 east into the 50s by hr 54 Hmmm... lot of moisture left behind at hr 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And ofc the 00z NAM goes dual lows tonight... and shoves I-95 east into the 50s by hr 54 Hmmm... lot of moisture left behind at hr 66... To go with that, the vort if it were to go right overhead in a phased manner would assist any wraparound/backend snows. There is a lot of residual moisture around behind the main low, and with that we have a chance at seeing a few inches at the end of this. Obviously the chances are higher to the northwest, but overall if the phasing was a bit cleaner, then we would have a quicker crash of temps and better baroclinic enhancement. Am checking all the layers now, but the NAM presents a possible scenario. Surface temps would be an issue for the areas E of FDK down to IAD, however with heavy enough precip cold 850's could advect down with the surface in a Justin Berkesque evaporational cooling story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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