yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS doesn't like anyone really getting any wintry precip before the rain comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 1st call JYO jyo.jpg Bob Chill first dusting of snow.jpg Me 012009_snow_dusting_3.jpg Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is pretty weak sauce when it comes to QPF...under 1.75" for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is pretty weak sauce when it comes to QPF...under 1.75" for everyone IMO the Euro has a tendency to overdo QPF at a few days range but I don't pay attention to verification scores etc like everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Unless you have 50+ kt southerlies screaming in at 850 take your science to the philly board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is pretty weak sauce when it comes to QPF...under 1.75" for everyone I guess we could cut the NAM totals in half and it would jive with the 12z GFS, but Wes was mentioning earlier about how anomalous this storm was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 IMO the Euro has a tendency to overdo QPF at a few days range but I don't pay attention to verification scores etc like everyone else does. I think inside of 72 and esp 48, Euro is king when it comes to QPF...its verification is higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's the end of November right now. Feb snow usually sucks. Wet slop that is gone as soon as the sun peeks out, often times the sun melts it even through the clouds. Dec and Jan are all that matter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's the end of November right now. Just coming into the heart of Mid-Atlantic winter climo time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Those scour out surface cold? When the high is over bermuda instead of Quebec. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think inside of 72 and esp 48, Euro is king when it comes to QPF...its verification is higher I'm still taking the under on 0z output. It's had a few runs 3"+ on the hi res. I've never understood those NH/global scores anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 take your science to the philly board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Feb snow usually sucks. Wet slop that is gone as soon as the sun peeks out, often times the sun melts it even through the clouds. Dec and Jan are all that matter to me. That's cool.. in 2 mo is basically our prime big snow time. Punt that if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'm still taking the under on 0z output. It's had a few runs 3"+ on the hi res. I've never understood those NH/global scores anyway. yeah..it's not always the best of course, but it is usually the way to go here in terms of QPF, imo...it well outperforms the other models over time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 1st call JYO jyo.jpg Bob Chill first dusting of snow.jpg Me 012009_snow_dusting_3.jpg lol. good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The model-to-model changes in QPF would be driving us insane if this were a snow event. Then I'd hug the NAM and inflate my snow totals when the storm was over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Matt, if your call verifies for my yard then beers are on me. BULLISH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That's cool.. in 2 mo is basically our prime big snow time. Punt that if you want. yeah, but for me it's all about snow cover, not snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yeah, but for me it's all about snow cover, not snow fall. For us 3 million snow starved city weenies it's all about snow that we haven't seen in 3 years come Jan. Heck, I'll count a July hailstorm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yeah, but for me it's all about snow cover, not snow fall. True, once toward the end of Feb the sun angle and generally warmer temps don't keep the snow on ground for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man the GFS is cooking at 850. So much for front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yeah..it's not always the best of course, but it is usually the way to go here in terms of QPF, imo...it well outperforms the other models over time... 12z yday was reasonable.. not that widespread 3"+ can't happen. i'd expect it to show lower totals today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For us 3 million snow starved city weenies it's all about snow that we haven't seen in 3 years come Jan. Heck, I'll count a July hailstorm at this point. quit ur complaining Bob, it's gunna' be cold on Thanksgiving and you should have realized by now that will be enough to make the rest of us happy on Thanksgiving not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Lol....I will make my call for final rain totals on Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man the GFS is cooking at 850. So much for front end snow. Listening to a 70's channel. CCR's Who'll Stop The Rain playing, well looks like the GFS isn't gonna stop it......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z yday was reasonable.. not that widespread 3"+ can't happen. i'd expect it to show lower totals today. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Listening to a 70's channel. CCR's Who'll Stop The Rain playing, well looks like the GFS isn't gonna stop it......lol OK, I can take a hint that 70's channel is now playing Gordon Lightfoot's Rainy Day People Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 7" Winchester bullseye. Book it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Even if we did flip the GFS is mid-30s+ most spots during the afternoon Wed. Good luck accumulating in those temps after 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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