yoda Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Meh... 18z NAM barely has any precip in the LWX CWA at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 dt listened about the middle zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 dt listened about the middle zone Solidly in the pink cloud zone...yeah baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 dt listened about the middle zone No way we get over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks just like my map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 looking at the 18z NAM, there really isn't much snow with this system in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just a thought... isn't it mostly true that precip on Miller A's are faster than progged on the front end by a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just a thought... isn't it mostly true that precip on Miller A's are faster than progged on the front end by a few hours? I've never heard that before and I've been following wx on the internet since 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Insane temperature gradient on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 the problem with this storm began 3 days ago when the models had the perfect offshore slp track and they were still showing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And the NAM backs down from being a complete outlier wrt precip. Around 3" from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I've never heard that before and I've been following wx on the internet since 1996I think in general precip often comes in earlier than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 the problem with this storm began 3 days ago when the models had the perfect offshore slp track and they were still showing rain You know what they say, it just wants to not snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think in general precip often comes in earlier than modeled It always seems that way...and ends faster as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think in general precip often comes in earlier than modeled some storms yes, but not others, so I don't think it is fair to say that it is a general rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 And the NAM backs down from being a complete outlier wrt precip. Around 3" from the 18z run. yes...maybe just under..l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Virga always gets here faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 the problem with this storm began 3 days ago when the models had the perfect offshore slp track and they were still showing rain Is the track of the SLP as depicted on the models sort of unusual? I mean don't they either cut a lot more or at least ride the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Interesting if this all pans out up here. FCPS Elementary and Middle schools are on conference schedule today and tomorrow. Today was a 4 hr. late start and tomorrow is a 3.5 hr. early dismissal. If the weather conditions create any slick roads up here, which is a definite possibility with some of the bus runs on the mountain roads, the system has already informed us that they will close as a 2 hr. late start will not make sense since kids are out by noon for afternoon conferences. Also conferences will be canceled and rescheduled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Virga always gets here faster True and with the Dew point depressions in the 20's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Is the track of the SLP as depicted on the models sort of unusual? I mean don't they either cut a lot more or at least ride the coast? Based on what I see on the GFS, this SLP track actually isn't a very good one for I-95... too far inland. If this were January, it would be more of a wintry mix I-95 with all snow west of the blue ridge. That said, it's November and there isn't as much of a cold air mass to push the SLP track just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 18Z hi-res 4km NAM could produce good back end frozen precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yes...maybe just under..l nam.PNG Looks like 2.5 to 3 which is now in the ballpark with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 18Z hi-res 4km NAM could produce good back end frozen precip: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/18/nam-hires_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif hard to say how much falls with 850s below in most of the heavier zone. i guess even half would be decent for watching purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 hard to say how much falls with 850s below in most of the heavier zone. i guess even half would be decent for watching purposes. ill give it half a meh for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 hard to say how much falls with 850s below in most of the heavier zone. i guess even half would be decent for watching purposes. The 18Z sfc temp on the regualar version is 36.5F at DCA at that time and there also is a warm layer at 800mb so I'm not sure how the hi res version does compared to it for temps. You'd think better but without a sounding it's hard to know whether we'd even be getting snow at that time of not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 hard to say how much falls with 850s below in most of the heavier zone. i guess even half would be decent for watching purposes. I wonder why the higher resolution NAM does not have the 10m conditions option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 18Z sfc temp on the regualar version is 36.5F at DCA at that time and there also is a warm layer at 800mb so I'm not sure how the hi res version does compared to it for temps. You'd think better but without a sounding it's hard to know whether we'd even be getting snow at that time of not. looks pretty similar at the sfc.. maybe 33-36 most of the area at 18z. actually warms at 21z maybe because precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ill give it half a meh for now hires_snow_3hr_washdc_16.png Ji snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 18Z sfc temp on the regualar version is 36.5F at DCA at that time and there also is a warm layer at 800mb so I'm not sure how the hi res version does compared to it for temps. You'd think better but without a sounding it's hard to know whether we'd even be getting snow at that time of not. This is hour 48 on the nam for DCA. precip still going ok but the sounding is rain. Hr 51 is a snow sounding but not much left around. So somewhere in between 18z-21z is snow. Ending with mood flakes is still a fair call. ETA: sounding above is hr 51. This is hr 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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