tmagan Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Had some light rain within the hour, and the GFS MOS had only a 2% chance of measurable precipitation from 6Z to 12Z, not often you see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 lightly raining here after drizzle an hr ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 GFS now dry Thursday, holds the rain til evening and the heaviest overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 I miss falling asleep while listening to the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 +NAO will keep things relatively mild, keeps the cold locked in Canada, and will assure plenty of cutters as the 12z gfs implies. In fact the cooler air we experienced may be the coolest in a while. Canada stays cold, which is good if we ever turn the corner. The odds of us seeing anything of significance in November is fairly low, maybe towards the end of the month we have a better shot. If November does end up mild to very mild, then our winter could be jeopardized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 It's really impressive to still be in the top ten driest months at Central Park through the 27th with .30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 It's really impressive to still be in the top ten driest months at Central Park through the 27th with .30". Screen shot 2013-10-27 at 1.21.29 PM.png And they should stay there given the rain should hold off until November 1st. There probably won't be much rain with the front, just a quick shot of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 GFS now dry Thursday, holds the rain til evening and the heaviest overnight some areas will set their record for driest October ever if we can go dry rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 If we can get the front to clear Friday morning I think we can hit 70 in the afternoon, starting off November nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 As we progress into November the latest guidance continues to show a warm up between fronts/troughs 10/30 - 11/1/. Beyond there - the ecm and gfs dig a trough into the east with another shot of some chilly air later next weekend. This next shot of cool (11/2 - 11/4 or 5) looks more transient with another trough pushing into the west coast forcing ridging east. We'll see where the 12z guidance takes us but the early part of November looks like it may be a back and forth between cold shots and warmer weather averaging near normal. Temps could reach or exceed 70 next thu or fri, perhaps for Halloween. As far a rain the next shot for meaningful precip would be with the front around 11/1 into next weekend. Not much change today translating the latest guidance - we should see heights rise ahead of the next trough between wed and fri with a brief surge of warmth. With a southwest flow temps could get near 70 thu/fri. As we head into Nov it looks to feature a bit of back and forth with a sharp cooldown next weekend (11/2 - 11/4 or 5). The SE ridge is modeled to offer resistance to any prolonged trough and cool in the NE in conjunction with frequent storms and troughs pushing into the west coast. The next warmup which might occur between 11/5 and 11/10 could see some strong warmth.... Overall the first week to 10 days of nov looks near normal by way of back and forth cool and warm periods with neither locking in quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 If we can get the front to clear Friday morning I think we can hit 70 in the afternoon, starting off November nice. I agree but suspect we deal with clouds and 70 degree readings are limited but still potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I agree but suspect we deal with clouds and 70 degree readings are limited but still potential. November usually brings at least one 70 degree day...1993 had an 80 degree day at mid month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November usually brings at least one 70 degree day...1993 had an 80 degree day at mid month... That record occurred on Nov 15th which makes it that much more significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Pretty heavy frost this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Wonder if the NAM is too aggressive with the warm front on Thursday. Has temps in the 70's and 850mb temps over 12 C by Halloween afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 It will be interesting to see if can can get a low topped squall line with the storm. The soundings are indicating strong wind potential even if a decent line can't get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 36 imby this morning...had some light frost also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 30.1F here this morning. Two consecutive heavy frosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 34.7 and good frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 30.3 in Muttontown this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I don't care if it hits 70 or not with the rain who can enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November usually brings at least one 70 degree day...1993 had an 80 degree day at mid month... I consider the 90s the "inferno" decade. Horrid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 33.6 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 28 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I don't care if it hits 70 or not with the rain who can enjoy it! A lot of people would enjoy the rain right about now. I doubt we get more than .25 with the front though. It'll be a quick shot that'll probably runoff, we really need a nice steady 1-3" soaker to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 A lot of people would enjoy the rain right about now. I doubt we get more than .25 with the front though. It'll be a quick shot that'll probably runoff, we really need a nice steady 1-3" soaker to help. Yeah the GFS keeps getting drier and drier. .25" looks to be about it. Though I wouldn't be surprised if we get far less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The 12z GFS Bufkit has 925mb 70kt+ winds, at 15z Friday. But I see very little instability for mixing or convection. Might be showers with gusty winds, with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Yeah the GFS keeps getting drier and drier. .25" looks to be about it. Though I wouldn't be surprised if we get far less The lawns here are absolutely dead. The last real soaker we had in my area is Tropical Storm Andrea back in June. We need the rain, bad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The lawns here are absolutely dead. The last real soaker we had in my area is Tropical Storm Andrea back in June. We need the rain, bad here. I've never seen anything like this this late...looks like mid July around here. And not surprised to see Thur/Fri rain event falling apart...that's been the trend since June 20th or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The 12z GFS Bufkit has 925mb 70kt+ winds, at 15z Friday. But I see very little instability for mixing or convection. Might be showers with gusty winds, with the cold front. There will only be some minimal elevated instability. The thing to watch will be how much wind can mix down since the inversion weakens on the SSW wind shift . The GFS has low topped squall line potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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