Sundog Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I'm shocked, I thought all the ice was supposed to be gone by 2012? But I get it, more ice and snow equals more warmth and less ice and snow equals well more warmth... Don't post if you will either make stuff up or don't know what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 This forum is interesting, seems akin to a discussion of politics or religion with the amount of emotion. I will say one thing; once a movement becomes politicized i become skeptical of any statistical conclusions. It muddy's the waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Don't post if you will either make stuff up or don't know what you're talking about. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/20/2013-ice-free-arctic-forecasts-from-the-worlds-top-experts/ https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/395158230113861632 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Both the gfs and ECm have around .25 of precip over the next week then relatively dry through the 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Good god, if you have a degree in geology then let me know who I should chastise for teaching you bad paleoclimate at the next AGU! Actually I have a degree in geology and studied paleoclimatology. The medieval warm period, which was the warmest time period over the last 2000 years besides now still does not match the temperatures we are currently seeing globally. The temperature reconstruction was created by using a diverse set of proxies, all producing a similar result and conclusion: we are currently seeing the warmest temperatures over the last few thousand years.Actually, Milankovitch cycles currently put us near the bottom temperature wise, yet we are far warmer than we should be.And the temperature changes that did occur would happen over a span of several hundred years, not several decades like we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I thought the increase in Antarctic ice was explained. I find the bolded statement a little disingenuous, because we never really discuss anything happening in the southern hemisphere in here, whether it's warm or cold. I was referring to the media, should have clarified. Anyone would be lying if they said the media reports on the high levels of ice in the southern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Theres a climate change forum, bring the denier bullsh*t over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Growing support for strong warm spell between the 6th an 9th.. Guidance still looks overall back and froth but the warm period that looks to start around the 6th could see some very warm temps and departures. I'm thinking November 1st-15th will average out above normal. This pattern in December would probably be colder given the -EPO, but there's too much resistance from the PNA / AO / NAO right now to combat the favorable AK ridging. Looks like we see a cold shot next weekend, another warm-up, followed by another transient cold shot toward the second week of November. Not getting any signals for a major torch or very cold November; we're probably going to end up on the plus side of normal but not like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Theres a climate change forum, bring the denier bullsh*t over there. This got started because people posted that this mild October and recent stretch of milder weather over the past few decades is a result of global warming and that this trend will continue or worsen. I don't see why presenting an intelligent rebuttal is denier bullsh*t. I don't recall anybody saying climate change isn't real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 This got started because people posted that this mild October and recent stretch of milder weather over the past few decades is a result of global warming and that this trend will continue or worsen. I don't see why presenting an intelligent rebuttal is denier bullsh*t. I don't recall anybody saying climate change isn't real Exactly. The weather's boring right now, and responses were needed to balance out the conversation. He only chimed in when an argument against his viewpoint was presented. And the term "denier" is heavily misused. No one's denying anything, not getting into the causes (natural vs anthropogenic). Simply presenting facts about the southern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Good god, if you have a degree in geology then let me know who I should chastise for teaching you bad paleoclimate at the next AGU! I'd be more than happy to hear why you disagree with me. Maybe I should clarify regarding the cycles: I didn't mean to say bottom temperature wise completely because that would obviously put us in a glacial period. I meant to say we are moving toward the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Global sea ice area has been running near or slightly above normal for the majority of 2013, which is a significant improvement from the past several years. Dude, notice the wild variation during the year from the mean that seems to have begun about a decade ago? That doesn't stand out to you? Looks like several SDs away from mean in ice variation have been occurring lately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 00z GGEM and 06z GFS both support a major storm hitting the area in the day 8-9 time frame. The 00z Euro has more of a plain Jane frontal passage. I would assume that this storm signal should get muted as time goes on in accordance with just about every single event of the past 4 months. One glimmer of hope is that the WPAC is starting to calm down, so that should start to erode some of the model havoc that we've been experiencing. BTW, the 00z ECMWF has lows in the 60's from I-80 south on Friday night. We also warm up again at the end of the run after a few days of normal to slightly below normal temps early next week. Looks like mostly 50's and possibly 60's as the SE ridge pumps just enough to keep us on the warm side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 We should be able to see wind gusts from 40-50 mph ahead of the front on Friday even if we don't get much of a low topped squall. But winds could be stronger if a low topped squall line can get its act together. Either way, we will be raking a bunch of leaves this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 12z GFS now has showers moving in during the afternoon on Halloween. It's coming in quite a bit wetter than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Dude, notice the wild variation during the year from the mean that seems to have begun about a decade ago? That doesn't stand out to you? Looks like several SDs away from mean in ice variation have been occurring lately.... Yeah, it does stand out to me. It also stands out that the mid 1990s happen to be the time frame when the Atlantic transitioned into a predominately warmer natural state (last such occurrence of the warm Atlantic mode was the mid 1930s until the early 1960s. The cold phase of the Atlantic from 1965-1995 coincided well with the normal to above normal arctic sea ice. Since a large part of the Arctic is open on the north Atlantic side, the SST anomalies of the north Atlantic significantly influence the ice mechanics of the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Per the 12z GFS, rain movies in around 21z Thursday night. Heaviest rain is from 06z Friday until 18z Friday. Rain moves out by 00z Saturday. Totals around a half inch+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Per the 12z GFS, rain movies in around 21z Thursday night. Heaviest rain is from 06z Friday until 18z Friday. Rain moves out by 00z Saturday. Totals around a half inch+. so around 4pm or so? How's the evening look for trick or treaters? (Figures it's bone dry for a month, we get screwed out of the record and have to walk around with umbrellas Thurs eve!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 so around 4pm or so? How's the evening look for trick or treaters? (Figures it's bone dry for a month, we get screwed out of the record and have to walk around with umbrellas Thurs eve!) The GFS gives us less than .05" until late evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Exactly. The weather's boring right now, and responses were needed to balance out the conversation. He only chimed in when an argument against his viewpoint was presented. And the term "denier" is heavily misused. No one's denying anything, not getting into the causes (natural vs anthropogenic). Simply presenting facts about the southern hemisphere. Nonsense, i posted it when it started taking over. Ive posted plenty of other times to take things to the appropriate forum, including those who shared my views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 are posters in this forum always so angry with each other? seems a little weird since we're all weather enthusiasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 are posters in this forum always so angry with each other? seems a little weird since we're all weather enthusiasts you ain't seen nothing yet...wait til winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 you ain't seen nothing yet...wait til winter. Hopefully such posts and posters will be quickly deleted/banned this winter. The last few winters were unbearable at times with all the troll posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 are posters in this forum always so angry with each other? seems a little weird since we're all weather enthusiasts Unfortunately yes usually. The entire site isn't very friendly but I still love it. Beautiful day if u can be in the sun. Currently 54 degrees and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Hopefully such posts and posters will be quickly deleted/banned this winter. The last few winters were unbearable at times with all the troll posts. There is another place which is more bearable. Fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 NYC +6.2 EWR +5.9 JFK +5.4 LGA +5.3 See where we stand next sunday After the cold shot NYC +3.5 EWR +3.1 JFK +3.0 LGA +3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 After the cold shot NYC +3.5 EWR +3.1 JFK +3.0 LGA +3.0 I went +1.4 in the forecast contest...I got to get rid of my cold bias...My max min guess was 85/38...It is 86/40 and should end like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 After the cold shot NYC +3.5 EWR +3.1 JFK +3.0 LGA +3.0 Another above normal stretch coming October 30-November 3, so we'll close out the month near +4 in NYC. Warm Octobers haven't always meant the kiss of death for winter as we saw in October 2012 (+1.1) and October 2010 (+1.5). The magnitude of the anomaly, however, does suggest a milder than normal winter. The gradient developing with an Aleutian/Alaska ridge and strong +NAO with associated polar vortex over Greenland reminds me a lot of Winter 07-08. That year also had the abnormally mild October, finishing around +6 in Central Park, with a turn towards colder in November. Had the gradient been suppressed a little bit further south, as I am expecting this year, 07-08 would have been more like 08-09 or 71-72, both decent winters for NYC. Heading forward, Nov 1-3 should feature a torch as the SE ridge dominates with a trough in the West (-PNA) and over Greenland (+NAO). However, the expansion of the Alaska ridge may cause a cold outbreak Nov 4-5, with the potential for moderation thereafter due to the positive state of the polar indices. There's no sign of cold afterwards: today's 12z ECM shows a very mild spell from November 5/6 on, with 850mb temperatures as high as 14C. The -PNA pattern remains in place, and a cut-off ridge appears over Alaska, which along with the +NAO leaves the PV on the other side of the pole, ranging from the Kara Sea to Siberia. Two things we really have to watch are stratospheric temperatures and the placement of the PV. 2mb temperatures are very low right now near the North Pole, with 5mb and 10mb temperatures near normal but falling fast, indicating a strong PV and +AO regime: Also, the 12z ECM suggests the polar vortex will remain on the Eurasian side of the hemisphere, limiting the potential for cold outbreaks in North America. The placement of the polar vortex in this unfavorable state has been a persistent pattern since Winter 03-04, which was the last time we saw a dominant PV on our side, bringing the extremely cold January that brought NYC into the low single digits. Today's Euro suggests a continuation of what's been the trend since 2004, with limited cold air available on this side of the Pole: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I went +1.4 in the forecast contest...I got to get rid of my cold bias...My max min guess was 85/38...It is 86/40 and should end like that... And this is coming during one of the slowest long term temperature rise months of the whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Great post Nate! As for winter I'm thinking warm and snowless. I'm not a expert or have as much knowledge as others, but I just get that feeling. I hate warm and late falls for our area. I often feel that's the kiss of death. I think from Bos-dca will all be snowless. Amazing how even with that cold shot we did not even pull off a -10 or greater daily. It was def kind of muted, from what was being forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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