The Pattern Ahead

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if this recent storm was a true Miller A. Yes it was in the sense that the low pressure could be tracked down to the Gulf, but it moved on an offshore trajectory (miss DC) and didn't explode I don't think until it got energized by the phase with the northern stream off the Mid Atlantic and NJ..

Maybe it's still a Miller A.... but a very rare Miller A that would utterly miss DC and then demolish NYC. Snow pattern reminded me more of the 12/30/00 Miller B.

It was Miller A; it missed DC only because the trough axis was so far easy, yet it still managed to come about as far west as it possibly could have in order to screw us.

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder if this recent storm was a true Miller A. Yes it was in the sense that the low pressure could be tracked down to the Gulf, but it moved on an offshore trajectory (miss DC) and didn't explode I don't think until it got energized by the phase with the northern stream off the Mid Atlantic and NJ..

Maybe it's still a Miller A.... but a very rare Miller A that would utterly miss DC and then demolish NYC. Snow pattern reminded me more of the 12/30/00 Miller B.

It was a miller A....thats why Georgia and south carolina got snow. Not every Miller A has to hit a certain region. Its where the low originates and tracks.

DC got hammered by a Miller B last winter while we got screwed...sometimes there's quirks.

[weathafella]

I know......I do tolerate it, though; I bi*** to no end, yet I'm always back for more.

One thing I'm noticing: I have reduced tolerance for narrowed walkways due to aging dirtying piles of city snow. I believe it was Jeff (blizzardgeek nee hooralph) who mentioned the necessity of a meltdown from time to time to flush the city of salt and other filth that gets imbedded in snowbanks. During these days off, and with the free time afforded by not being able to get to Chicago this week, I'm spending time in the woods a few hours each day. Makes the snow eminently more beautiful and I believe that is the perspective that Kevin is coming from considering his rural like wooded location.

[Ginx snewx]

I really like you, consider you a friend...but damned you are tough to please meteorogically. Not a knock by any means. But to live in this region, you have to endure tons of wx that is distasteful.

Me too, he is a great friend , needs to move to the Sierras, sounds like that is the climate for him, blizzards followed by bluebird warmth, no severe heat and humidity. New England is not.

[Logan11]

Agree this is a mini torch at best. I recall a true torch (maybe early Jan 2008) that had western NY around 70F. That came in an otherwise good winter here. I really think you to have region wide 50+ even in January for it to be a torch. This one will only have 50+ in a few select spots in far south/east NE I guess.

quote name='weathafella' timestamp='1293639443' post='202744']

How is departures of 5, 5, 5, and 10 a torch? I mean if anytime the times go above 40 is a torch then we're being far too generous. Kind like saying, sunny and cold, temperatures in the 30s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Me too, he is a great friend , needs to move to the Sierras, sounds like that is the climate for him, blizzards followed by bluebird warmth, no severe heat and humidity. New England is not.

[Ginx snewx]

One thing I'm noticing: I have reduced tolerance for narrowed walkways due to aging dirtying piles of city snow. I believe it was Jeff (blizzardgeek nee hooralph) who mentioned the necessity of a meltdown from time to time to flush the city of salt and other filth that gets imbedded in snowbanks. During these days off, and with the free time afforded by not being able to get to Chicago this week, I'm spending time in the woods a few hours each day. Makes the snow eminently more beautiful and I believe that is the perspective that Kevin is coming from considering his rural like wooded location.

I was in Pawtucket RI yesterday, city streets are a disaster in snow. The beauty of a snowfall on the city is fleeting, yesterday morning standing next to eight foot drifts in Sterling CT looking out over a snow-covered landscape again made me feel blessed.

[dryslot]

Me too, he is a great friend , needs to move to the Sierras, sounds like that is the climate for him, blizzards followed by bluebird warmth, no severe heat and humidity. New England is not.

No need to go that far, Just move to NW Maine, Its winter there all winter............

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks interesting for monday, Looks like it trys to develop a low on the front once it pushes off shore........

[LakeEffectKing]

[Logan11]

I always love a good anafrontal snow event, but they seen quite tough to come by lately. I guess the 2" behind the last cutter qualifies a bit as a modest one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I never pay any mind to anafrontal potential because it's realized in the cp about 1\100 times.

[Damage In Tolland]

I never pay any mind to anafrontal potential because it's realized in the cp about 1\100 times.

Your area doesn't tend to get it..Areas farther west do

[LakeEffectKing]

Well, IF one believes in trends, and we end up seeing a stronger and stronger impulse in the upper levels interact with the front, further south, we could end up with something more substantial.....but the height field would certainly need to relax quite a bit more, and that is a tall order with the blocking. Whatever might form, would certainly scoot northeast pretty quickly, unless the impulse were far stronger and slowed down. Super tall order....But....with the insane blocking....who knows?

[HoarfrostHubb]

A couple rthree inches on Mnday would please me.

Stoopid iPod typing ftl

[Ginx snewx]

A couple rthree inches on Mnday would please me.

Stoopid iPod typing ftl

Sometimes they just appear out of nowhere, not a anafrontal snow , cool hope the GFS is onto something.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Your area doesn't tend to get it..Areas farther west do

You have a better shot, certainly, but they never offer overwhelmingly good odds to anyone.

Good luck.

[Ginx snewx]

After Sunday the GFS op keep's 850s well below 0 for the entire run with several shots at accumulations.

[Ginx snewx]

After Sunday the GFS op keep's 850s well below 0 for the entire run with several shots at accumulations.

Off the hook stuff in fantasy land but HMs target dat e looks great for one of those cold low storms.

[MaineJayhawk]

At least there's potentially something other than passing rain showers to track.

[weathafella]

After Sunday the GFS op keep's 850s well below 0 for the entire run with several shots at accumulations.

Great winter unfolding. All the great ones being with a wallop after signaling for days. The typical Dec wallop is followed by a 1-2 week relaxation followed by re-load. If we somehow fail to re-load, we could derail.

[Ginx snewx]

Great winter unfolding. All the great ones being with a wallop after signaling for days. The typical Dec wallop is followed by a 1-2 week relaxation followed by re-load. If we somehow fail to re-load, we could derail.

Nope derail not happening, global signals getting stronger every day.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nope derail not happening, global signals getting stronger every day.

The Jan 3-5 could be a sneaky system.

[DomNH]

A couple rthree inches on Mnday would please me.

Stoopid drunken typing ftl

Hey, it's 5 o'clock somewhere, right?

[Ginx snewx]

The Jan 3-5 could be a sneaky system.

Surprised KeV didn't post JB , he sees secondary in MA with snow for us.

[CoastalWx]

I think the pattern after NY looks pretty good.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Surprised KeV didn't post JB , he sees secondary in MA with snow for us.

If we can get that s/w to dig more as modeled on the 12z GFS than maybe we can get something. 12z GGEM shears it out.

[ORH_wxman]

I think the pattern after NY looks pretty good.

The analog dice are loaded for here:

1/16/60

1/14/64

12/24/61 (again)

12/22/66

1/16/66

12/29/76

There's really only a couple duds in there...all the ones I listed had a 6"+ event within a couple days of the date (often much much more than 6"+)

No guarantee we cash in though. But I'm feeling pretty optimistic for the Jan 4-15 time frame.

[Logan11]

The frustrating thing about this winter is that we never do lose all the blocking, but yet we manage a cutter....without even so much as a decent front end thump of snow/ice. In other years we find a way to get some snow out of even some cutters.

But hopefully after it passes we get into some good opportunities.

Well, IF one believes in trends, and we end up seeing a stronger and stronger impulse in the upper levels interact with the front, further south, we could end up with something more substantial.....but the height field would certainly need to relax quite a bit more, and that is a tall order with the blocking. Whatever might form, would certainly scoot northeast pretty quickly, unless the impulse were far stronger and slowed down. Super tall order....But....with the insane blocking....who knows?

[free_man]

No need to go that far, Just move to NW Maine, Its winter there all winter............

I'm thinking of buying some land up there to get started. Weenie investment