The Pattern Ahead

[Typhoon Tip]

I know you are big on significantly rising and falling indices for big events, but a moderately strong -nao (which is what seems to be modeled) combined with possible west coast and or Plains troughing is a good combo to have imo. If the nao is positive with that setup, I smell cutters.

...

I definitely agree with this, too, Scott. That type of configuration enters overrunning scenario.

[weathafella]

http://www.atmos.alb...ra/research.htm

Graphs don't open but thanks. I have seen this presentation and my memory is that it is best when PNA/NAO in combination goes up/down respectively from trofs/peaks respectively.

[weathafella]

Incidentally, GFS OP wants to do exactly that at the end of the run....run PNA way up there. Signal for cold January in general increases and while my own call was for a very mild 2 weeks, I think this and others similar may be in jeopardy.

[CoastalWx]

I definitely agree with this, too, Scott. That type of configuration enters overrunning scenario.

That's basically all I mean. I don't want a block like last year by any stretch, but I don't think something in the mdt category hurts.

There seems to be some interesting things going on in the beginning of January. Our "torch" also is not overly impressive either.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's basically all I mean. I don't want a block like last year by any stretch, but I don't think something in the mdt category hurts.

There seems to be some interesting things going on in the beginning of January. Our "torch" also is not overly impressive either.

My take on that is not really a torch actually.... I mean, someone worth a statistical salt ought to make a torch checklist, but for me, a "torch" should be a minimum of 3 days - similar to heat wave time in the summer. Intuitive that way, say 10F above normal for 3 days as a start?

I don't think this week will qualify even if torch is defined more generously. The 500mb ridge axis is west of us until the last moment, and then we have an impressive cold frontal passage. With the ridge being west, we will have some difficulty advecting warm thickness through the area - having a substantial nascent EC snow pack ain't hurting the cold cause either...

It seems we we get to the low 40s and dent the new snow pack, then make a brief run at 51-like air, then the front, then refreeze with rapidity.

By the way, as Jerry just mentioned, wow to that -EPO (speak of the devil) and the insane cold in the la-la range.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Incidentally, GFS OP wants to do exactly that at the end of the run....run PNA way up there. Signal for cold January in general increases and while my own call was for a very mild 2 weeks, I think this and others similar may be in jeopardy.

i've seen some stuff suggesting a SW event is on the way too. there's some info in the main thread and i've read some other sources as well. would certainly raise the chances of getting some real arctic air into the northern conus at least. supports the idea of minimally seeing a nice nw/se gradient pattern.

[Baroclinic Zone]

My take on that is not really a torch actually.... I mean, someone worth a statistical salt ought to make a torch checklist, but for me, a "torch" should be a minimum of 3 days - similar to heat wave time in the summer. Intuitive that way, say 10F above normal for 3 days as a start?

I don't think this week will qualify even if torch is defined more generously. The 500mb ridge axis is west of us until the last moment, and then we have an impressive cold frontal passage. With the ridge being west, we will have some difficulty advecting warm thickness through the area - having a substantial nascent EC snow pack ain't hurting the cold cause either...

It seems we we get to the low 40s and dent the new snow pack, then make a brief run at 51-like air, then the front, then refreeze with rapidity.

By the way, as Jerry just mentioned, wow to that -EPO (speak of the devil) and the insane cold in the la-la range.

Kevin is just very gratuitous with his term "torch" in the winter time. Anything over 30F in winter is a torch to him.

[weathafella]

Probably the best news for me is because of all the $$$ that went out the door in 2010, we're canceling our FL trip 1/13-20. I'll be heading there for business 1/18 returning 1/20. This winter is shaping up with a ton of potential. Let's see what it can deliver beyond 1/3-4.

[Damage In Tolland]

i've seen some stuff suggesting a SW event is on the way too. there's some info in the main thread and i've read some other sources as well. would certainly raise the chances of getting some real arctic air into the northern conus at least. supports the idea of minimally seeing a nice nw/se gradient pattern.

But we need one like Jan 2 or 3..don't want to wait 10-15 days for our next event. By then the sun angle is killer according to Cweat

[CoastalWx]

My take on that is not really a torch actually.... I mean, someone worth a statistical salt ought to make a torch checklist, but for me, a "torch" should be a minimum of 3 days - similar to heat wave time in the summer. Intuitive that way, say 10F above normal for 3 days as a start?

I don't think this week will qualify even if torch is defined more generously. The 500mb ridge axis is west of us until the last moment, and then we have an impressive cold frontal passage. With the ridge being west, we will have some difficulty advecting warm thickness through the area - having a substantial nascent EC snow pack ain't hurting the cold cause either...

It seems we we get to the low 40s and dent the new snow pack, then make a brief run at 51-like air, then the front, then refreeze with rapidity.

By the way, as Jerry just mentioned, wow to that -EPO (speak of the devil) and the insane cold in the la-la range.

Yeah that's why I put torch in quotation marks. I don't see it as a big warmup at all.

-EPO is impressive for sure.

[CoastalWx]

i've seen some stuff suggesting a SW event is on the way too. there's some info in the main thread and i've read some other sources as well. would certainly raise the chances of getting some real arctic air into the northern conus at least. supports the idea of minimally seeing a nice nw/se gradient pattern.

There seems to be building warmth from 10mb to 50mb in Asia and this moves east.

[Ginx snewx]

Geezus on the NAO stuff, I wish the block was a little stronger for our Blizzard and farther East. It would have put SNE in the sweet spot and might have stalled for a day. The change in NAO state of course is a key factor but as the research states going up some and down some still equates to storminess. What we do not want is a raging positive. The bounce back for the AO begins mid month, might be the Arctic express visiting. Location location location of a strong block and viola , this is going to be a great winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Geezus on the NAO stuff, I wish the block was a little stronger for our Blizzard and farther East. It would have put SNE in the sweet spot and might have stalled for a day. The change in NAO state of course is a key factor but as the research states going up some and down some still equates to storminess. What we do not want is a raging positive. The bounce back for the AO begins mid month, might be the Arctic express visiting. Location location location of a strong block and viola , this is going to be a great winter.

I only need 2 mundane 6-8" storms to reach my seasonal call.

[Ginx snewx]

I only need 2 mundane 6-8" storms to reach my seasonal call.

Your sig is different, didn't you get two four inchers. I remember being amazed you telling me you got eight last week. Dude you have been ground zero, what is your depth?

[H2Otown_WX]

Is it just me or does anyone else think something is major wrong at BDL...they had fourteen inches of snow and just about everyone else around them had less than ten inches????

How do they get away with that and this is not the first time this has happened?? I think they over report totals to the point it skews the annual average!

Agreed...I think they're full of crap. I am west of them away from the valley and I had half that.

[Typhoon Tip]

The 12z Euro looks fantastically weird with that zonal flow that extends from 180W all the way east to 70W like that. That is 1/4 of the distance around the planet, in January, without a L/W presentation.

Ah, no.

[OSUmetstud]

The 12z Euro looks fantastically weird with that zonal flow that extends from 180W all the way east to 70W like that. That is 1/4 of the distance around the planet, in January, without a L/W presentation.

Ah, no.

Looks pretty good by 10 days....which is the time frame I brought up.

[Tropopause_Fold]

at least it should be fairly short-lived.

[nzucker]

Crazy -AO on the Day 10 ECM:

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles have a big -PNA/-NAO pattern for the foreseeable future after that short warmup 1/1 and 1/2. That should continue to give us chances

[OSUmetstud]

Euro ensembles have a big -PNA/-NAO pattern for the foreseeable future after that short warmup 1/1 and 1/2. That should continue to give us chances

What kind of events are favorable for that type of teleconnection?

[ORH_wxman]

What kind of events are favorable for that type of teleconnection?

Clippers/redevelopers...Miller Bs....retrograde storm. Probably a SWFE in there.

You can get a storm like we just had but it would have be because of a lucky timing....we got that big transient Rockies ridge. But the -PNA is generally hostile toward huge ridges in the western US. So we generally look for events that don't need those huge ridges....and storms tracking through the lakes/OH Valley that redevelop certainly fit the bill.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Euro ensembles have a big -PNA/-NAO pattern for the foreseeable future after that short warmup 1/1 and 1/2. That should continue to give us chances

pretty much the way it's been for weeks and weeks now.

i'd like to get some cold air down into southeastern canada. i don't know what the ec ens. looks like beyond day 10 but up to that point the 850s are kinda meh - obviously cold enough for snow this time of year so no worries there but i'd like to get some arctic air involved in the pattern.

this steroid induced NAO is such a catch 22

[ORH_wxman]

pretty much the way it's been for weeks and weeks now.

i'd like to get some cold air down into southeastern canada. i don't know what the ec ens. looks like beyond day 10 but up to that point the 850s are kinda meh - obviously cold enough for snow this time of year so no worries there but i'd like to get some arctic air involved in the pattern.

this steroid induced NAO is such a catch 22

The ensemble mean is actually very cold in SE Canada Jan 3-5...it has a large area of -16C 850 temps covering most of eastern Hudson Bay down to Quebec City. It does lift them out a bit like the OP run, but not nearly as bad. There's going to be a battle as the troughing in the GOA looks to get pretty intense....even on the ECMWF mean. So the NAO will be battling that signal.

[cpickett79]

Clippers/redevelopers...Miller Bs....retrograde storm. Probably a SWFE in there.

You can get a storm like we just had but it would have be because of a lucky timing....we got that big transient Rockies ridge. But the -PNA is generally hostile toward huge ridges in the western US. So we generally look for events that don't need those huge ridges....and storms tracking through the lakes/OH Valley that redevelop certainly fit the bill.

well we haven't seen many ole fashioned clippers yet

and what is a more ideal set up for SWFE's....just curious. cause we haven't had those either.

just alot of cold and dry minus the great timing we had last week for a change. hopefully we can get more frequent storminess in here.

so basically will what is different about the upcoming pattern that may make things more active (frequency of low's moving across conus) as opposed to the cold and dry weather. (and yes i know we just had a KU )

[Tropopause_Fold]

Clippers/redevelopers...Miller Bs....retrograde storm. Probably a SWFE in there.

You can get a storm like we just had but it would have be because of a lucky timing....we got that big transient Rockies ridge. But the -PNA is generally hostile toward huge ridges in the western US. So we generally look for events that don't need those huge ridges....and storms tracking through the lakes/OH Valley that redevelop certainly fit the bill.

would be great to get some clippers going. you think the -pna is conducive for that?

[ChrisM]

But we need one like Jan 2 or 3..don't want to wait 10-15 days for our next event. By then the sun angle is killer according to Cweat

the sun angle is fine til late feb or so lol

[ORH_wxman]

well we haven't seen many ole fashioned clippers yet

and what is a more ideal set up for SWFE's....just curious. cause we haven't had those either.

just alot of cold and dry minus the great timing we had last week for a change. hopefully we can get more frequent storminess in here.

so basically will what is different about the upcoming pattern that may make things more active (frequency of low's moving across conus) as opposed to the cold and dry weather. (and yes i know we just had a KU )

Well the thing is, it really hasn't been that dry. We had an ill timed lakes cutter when the NAO relaxed just enough...gave us rain. We just got a pretty heavy dump of snow.

The pattern seemed to be locked in a little more extreme with a potent vortex near us. That doesn't look to be the case going forward. It looks to be north of us. Now, it could obviously change as we are a ways out, you can't predict the nuances of each storm. But the overall pattern should give us our fair chances at something. Hopefully we'll cash in a bit better than we did pre-Dec 26-27.

For SFEW, you generally want a -PNA with some form of high pressure north of Maine or NNE...those are the best for us in maximizing snowfall.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The ensemble mean is actually very cold in SE Canada Jan 3-5...it has a large area of -16C 850 temps covering most of eastern Hudson Bay down to Quebec City. It does lift them out a bit like the OP run, but not nearly as bad. There's going to be a battle as the troughing in the GOA looks to get pretty intense....even on the ECMWF mean. So the NAO will be battling that signal.

yeah i saw that...like you said it seemed a bit transient but it's not terrible. obviously not a concern in terms of frozen precip this time of year but i'd like to get some "high barometer" cold.

[ORH_wxman]

would be great to get some clippers going. you think the -pna is conducive for that?

I think it depends where the trough sets up. If it sets up like right on the PAC coast or just offshore for a bit, then you can get storms riding up north of the rockies and a little downstream ridge forms in that area...then get the systems diving SE again through the lakes. If the trough is a little further inland, its probably more OH Valley runners and SWFEs.

Or even if the flow goes a bit more zonal for a bit, then clippers can become more numerous.

Here's an example of a setup from Dec 31, 2008....the trough was a bit offshore with the GOA low...so we saw a little downstream ridge...if you remember, that was a nice clipper redeveloper event....almost a mini-Miller B.