The Pattern Ahead

[Baroclinic Zone]

The analog dice are loaded for here:

1/16/60

1/14/64

12/24/61 (again)

12/22/66

1/16/66

12/29/76

There's really only a couple duds in there...all the ones I listed had a 6"+ event within a couple days of the date (often much much more than 6"+)

No guarantee we cash in though. But I'm feeling pretty optimistic for the Jan 4-15 time frame.

I'm sure the GFS is out to lunch with the Jan 3-4 timeframe but just something to watch imo.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm sure the GFS is out to lunch with the Jan 3-4 timeframe but just something to watch imo.

I'm not high on the anafront threat. But once the front passes, I think we'll have chances. Hopefully its not 10 days of cold and dry...but analogs suggest well above average chances of a significant snow event in that time frame after Jan 4-5...and looking at the mean pattern, no reason to disagree with the analogs too much.

If we can get anything interesting out of that anafront, then all gravy IMHO.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm not high on the anafront threat. But once the front passes, I think we'll have chances. Hopefully its not 10 days of cold and dry...but analogs suggest well above average chances of a significant snow event in that time frame after Jan 4-5...and looking at the mean pattern, no reason to disagree with the analogs too much.

If we can get anything interesting out of that anafront, then all gravy IMHO.

GFS wants to develop a wave on it. I don't know what the Euro is doing but I like the look at 96h.

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS wants to develop a wave on it. I don't know what the Euro is doing but I like the look at 96h.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm not high on the anafront threat. But once the front passes, I think we'll have chances. Hopefully its not 10 days of cold and dry...but analogs suggest well above average chances of a significant snow event in that time frame after Jan 4-5...and looking at the mean pattern, no reason to disagree with the analogs too much.

If we can get anything interesting out of that anafront, then all gravy IMHO.

Euro showing possible wave on front.

[dryslot]

Euro is close on the Anafront on Monday, Real close........

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro showing possible wave on front.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro suggests maybe an inch of snow at the end for the anafront on Jan 2-3. But I don't think this has much potential to be a significant snow producer. Hopefully I'm wrong and it keeps looking better and better...the pattern behind it suggests more favorable setups.

[dryslot]

Euro suggests maybe an inch of snow at the end for the anafront on Jan 2-3. But I don't think this has much potential to be a significant snow producer. Hopefully I'm wrong and it keeps looking better and better...the pattern behind it suggests more favorable setups.

Made pretty big shift from 00z, But who knows, Just watch the trend for now, Would be fitting to start the new year right this time around.......

[dryslot]

I'm thinking of buying some land up there to get started. Weenie investment

Can be had pretty resonable, I love riding and staying in that area, True winter conditions, Start early and ends late.........

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro suggests maybe an inch of snow at the end for the anafront on Jan 2-3. But I don't think this has much potential to be a significant snow producer. Hopefully I'm wrong and it keeps looking better and better...the pattern behind it suggests more favorable setups.

I am not suggesting anything significant, just the chance and that is what the 12z GFS and Euro show right now.

[CoastalWx]

The analog dice are loaded for here:

1/16/60

1/14/64

12/24/61 (again)

12/22/66

1/16/66

12/29/76

There's really only a couple duds in there...all the ones I listed had a 6"+ event within a couple days of the date (often much much more than 6"+)

No guarantee we cash in though. But I'm feeling pretty optimistic for the Jan 4-15 time frame.

Wow, that is pretty nice. I just like the look of all the features. PV near HudsonBay. -NAO. Split flow in the west, etc.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I don't know Will, the GFS ensembles are starting to show some type of frontal wave possible as well. 12z CMC/EURO/GFS all show potential, with the CMC most confused. The question becomes how fast can the front move through so that most of the frontal wave's precip is snow and how quickly can the disturbance intensity? Right now the EURO digs the upper level trough more and therefore the frontal wave develops a tad faster than the GFS and CMC. CMC has a lot of energy going around in the upper level flow, but shows no phasing potential. We could end up with some snow on the back end of the frontal wave, however I think it is one of those instances that happens too late for us, but Nova Scotia benefits a lot from it. It will be interesting to watch the model trends for a change without having any expectations. Sleeping well at night, no stressing on the potential for a monster storm. I think this should serve us well, even if nothing comes from it, it looks like could give us a nice event. Hopefully we get that one big snowstorm before I head to San Antonio, TX on Jan 10-11th.

[free_man]

The analog dice are loaded for here:

1/16/60

1/14/64

12/24/61 (again)

12/22/66

1/16/66

12/29/76

There's really only a couple duds in there...all the ones I listed had a 6"+ event within a couple days of the date (often much much more than 6"+)

No guarantee we cash in though. But I'm feeling pretty optimistic for the Jan 4-15 time frame.

Where are those years taken or resolved from?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't know Will, the GFS ensembles are starting to show some type of frontal wave possible as well. 12z CMC/EURO/GFS all show potential, with the CMC most confused. The question becomes how fast can the front move through so that most of the frontal wave's precip is snow and how quickly can the disturbance intensity? Right now the EURO digs the upper level trough more and therefore the frontal wave develops a tad faster than the GFS and CMC. CMC has a lot of energy going around in the upper level flow, but shows no phasing potential. We could end up with some snow on the back end of the frontal wave, however I think it is one of those instances that happens too late for us, but Nova Scotia benefits a lot from it. It will be interesting to watch the model trends for a change without having any expectations. Sleeping well at night, no stressing on the potential for a monster storm. I think this should serve us well, even if nothing comes from it, it looks like could give us a nice event. Hopefully we get that one big snowstorm before I head to San Antonio, TX on Jan 10-11th.

If it were to occur, I'd be concerned down here in the CP. I'd imagine we'd be pretty warm at the surface. Not an ideal setup but something to monitor.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't know Will, the GFS ensembles are starting to show some type of frontal wave possible as well. 12z CMC/EURO/GFS all show potential, with the CMC most confused. The question becomes how fast can the front move through so that most of the frontal wave's precip is snow and how quickly can the disturbance intensity? Right now the EURO digs the upper level trough more and therefore the frontal wave develops a tad faster than the GFS and CMC. CMC has a lot of energy going around in the upper level flow, but shows no phasing potential. We could end up with some snow on the back end of the frontal wave, however I think it is one of those instances that happens too late for us, but Nova Scotia benefits a lot from it. It will be interesting to watch the model trends for a change without having any expectations. Sleeping well at night, no stressing on the potential for a monster storm. I think this should serve us well, even if nothing comes from it, it looks like could give us a nice event. Hopefully we get that one big snowstorm before I head to San Antonio, TX on Jan 10-11th.

We might get a little snow at the end...I'm just not about to start tracking it hoping for a significant (>4") snow out of it. If it starts to look better, all gravy IMHO...but it doesn't look that great right now. Anafronts are difficult to get to produce much.

[ORH_wxman]

Where are those years taken or resolved from?

CPC upper air tools...GFS and GGEM esnemble analogs at day 8.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro suggests maybe an inch of snow at the end for the anafront on Jan 2-3. But I don't think this has much potential to be a significant snow producer. Hopefully I'm wrong and it keeps looking better and better...the pattern behind it suggests more favorable setups.

Curious why you refer this as anafront, 7h and 8h RH look more like a wave develops on the front. Not a straight line sloped setup. I agree its probably a light 1-2 but thats OK with me. Any rate whatever develop is quickly out. Agree violently on setup thereafter.

[free_man]

Can be had pretty resonable, I love riding and staying in that area, True winter conditions, Start early and ends late.........

It would be a nice lil getaway spot, not sure I'd want to live there.

CPC upper air tools...GFS and GGEM esnemble analogs at day 8.

Thanks

[ORH_wxman]

Curious why you refer this as anafront, 7h and 8h RH look more like a wave develops on the front. Not a straight line sloped setup. I agree its probably a light 1-2 but thats OK with me. Any rate whatever develop is quickly out. Agree violently on setup thereafter.

Well when we say anafront storm, we're usually referring to warm air being driven up the front all the way into the upper levels which usually tries to promote precip behind it...on the cold side. Its common a wave forms along the front tohelp this process along. The technical definition aside, the setup is usually difficult to get to produce a lot of snow unless you can really start getting the flow backed in the mid/upper levels which doesn't really happen.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hey, an inch or 2 would be fine by me... baby steps to get to average or above for snowfall, despite a slow start out here.

In ane case, it is still a little while away and good to have something besides 45F and a little damp to pay attention to

[dryslot]

It would be a nice lil getaway spot, not sure I'd want to live there.

Thanks

That truly is gods country up there........

[SnowGoose69]

Euro nicer on the block through 192 hours but a total crap pattern with a very flat ridge out west, nothing is going to happen in that setup.

[dryslot]

Euro looks like it trys to retro another low here at hr 234...........

[ORH_wxman]

There's two systems on the Euro that could end up worth watching....the dry clipper at 144-156h...vortmax tries to dive decently, but height field slightly too compressed to back the flow enough for an actual system of note...could obviously change given the time frame.

The system at the end of the run. Another system diving through the upper plains/western lakes...could be a little redeveloper...or if it worked out, potentially phase with the southern stream energy bowling ball the Euro has rolling through Texas.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

We might get a little snow at the end...I'm just not about to start tracking it hoping for a significant (>4") snow out of it. If it starts to look better, all gravy IMHO...but it doesn't look that great right now. Anafronts are difficult to get to produce much.

I agree, not looking like a good setup any ways.

Should be intersting after this period, as another southern stream disturbance wants to move into CA next week. Models will be iffy on potential phasing and timing issues with this system for now. Expected.

[cpickett79]

Hey, an inch or 2 in the fanny would be fine by me... baby steps to get to average or above for snowfall, despite a slow start out here.

In ane case, it is still a little while away and good to have something besides 45F and a little damp to pay attention to

what do you average 75? decent latitude and 1068'

[SnowGoose69]

Does anyone have a theory as to why the Euro seems to hate -NAOs so much? Again you can already see it trying to squash the Greenland block by 216 hours....the Euro even during some of our nastiest -NAO winters the last decade seems to always want to scour the block out in the long range.

[HoarfrostHubb]

what do you average 75? decent latitude and 1068'

I'm guessing closer to 68-70"... not sure since I have not really tallied it until this past year. It seemed like a bad year but I finished with 76"

[ORH_wxman]

Does anyone have a theory as to why the Euro seems to hate -NAOs so much? Again you can already see it trying to squash the Greenland block by 216 hours....the Euro even during some of our nastiest -NAO winters the last decade seems to always want to scour the block out in the long range.

I'm not sure, though I don't think it is exclusively the Euro doing it. I've noticed most models have been trying to break it down too quickly going back to last winter.

The ensembles seem to do a much better job at signaling the longevity (but even those have been too quick to break it down). Maybe the OP Euro is worse than others, but I think they have all been guilty. I think the OP runs are generally useless beyond D6-7 anyway.