The Pattern Ahead

[Damage In Tolland]

Donny Baseball Sutherland has cancelled his warm Jan idea..but hints at cold and dry for us

Conclusion:

The northern Mid-Atlantic region could experience near normal or somewhat below normal readings for January, though January won't be as cold as December was. Southern New England could experience below normal readings. A large area stretching across the Great Lakes region, Northern Plains, and at least the Pacific Northwest could be colder than normal. This area includes southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast will likely wind up on the warm side of normal. In terms of precipitation, the area running from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast and then up the Eastern Seaboard will likely see less than normal precipitation. The West Coast could also be drier than normal. Near normal precipitation is likely in southern Ontario and southern Quebec.

[ski MRG]

Donny Baseball Sutherland has cancelled his warm Jan idea..but hints at cold and dry for us

Conclusion:

The northern Mid-Atlantic region could experience near normal or somewhat below normal readings for January, though January won't be as cold as December was. Southern New England could experience below normal readings. A large area stretching across the Great Lakes region, Northern Plains, and at least the Pacific Northwest could be colder than normal. This area includes southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast will likely wind up on the warm side of normal. In terms of precipitation, the area running from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast and then up the Eastern Seaboard will likely see less than normal precipitation. The West Coast could also be drier than normal. Near normal precipitation is likely in southern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Pick a forecast out of a hat of various forecasts and you'll have the same chance to verify. LR forecasting is a fool's errand. All the "Winter is over after DEC" predictions now getting rolled back as we near Jan. 1st isn't surprising as it was a ridiculous position to take in the first place. Ginx, Jerry and I will, in the end, verify with our early calls for a Big Winter. Playing a hunch is as good as any LR forecasting methodology as far as I'm concerned.

[Damage In Tolland]

Pick a forecast out of a hat of various forecasts and you'll have the same chance to verify. LR forecasting is a fool's errand. All the "Winter is over after DEC" predictions now getting rolled back as we near Jan. 1st isn't surprising as it was a ridiculous position to take in the first place. Ginx, Jerry and I will, in the end, verify with our early calls for a Big Winter. Playing a hunch is as good as any LR forecasting methodology as far as I'm concerned.

His warm Jan idea was new as of 2 weeks ago..not a long range forecast

[ski MRG]

His warm Jan idea was new as of 2 weeks ago..not a long range forecast

Underscores my point. Even with only a 2 week lead time things can change dramatically.I wasn't speaking of just Don S. but of LR in general.

[OSUmetstud]

Pick a forecast out of a hat of various forecasts and you'll have the same chance to verify. LR forecasting is a fool's errand. All the "Winter is over after DEC" predictions now getting rolled back as we near Jan. 1st isn't surprising as it was a ridiculous position to take in the first place. Ginx, Jerry and I will, in the end, verify with our early calls for a Big Winter. Playing a hunch is as good as any LR forecasting methodology as far as I'm concerned.

[Logan11]

I'd really like to see Bastardi bust with his January torch (winter is over) forecast for most of the East. But hey I root for him and other long range forecasters when they forecast cold/snow.

[mahk_webstah]

I am not excited by the GFS long range depiction. I really don't want another strong NAO block. I don't like suppressors and retrograders. I am happy to see a -NAO but not a huge one. Something else in the pattern needs to shift to make the -NAO more effective. I suppose I can go visit friends and family in the MA for some good chasing but I'd rather have a 3 or 4 foot snow pack up here. I also don't like a pattern with a lot of cold and dry periods with events coming only occassionally.

Not happy to see this pattern returning unless it is tweaked significantly to get more regular precip events here.

[nynjpaweather]

Don't be surprised if the Sub Tropical Jet stream shows a bit more life going forward from mid January on. So far, it's nice to see many forecasters coming over to my long range forecast in October.

[moneypitmike]

As folks look at patterns, it's interesting to see the dramatically lower artic ice levels this winter. Whether this contributes to the pattern or is a result of the pattern I have no idea. But, it's remarkably out-of-kilter.

[MaineJayhawk]

Pick a forecast out of a hat of various forecasts and you'll have the same chance to verify. LR forecasting is a fool's errand. All the "Winter is over after DEC" predictions now getting rolled back as we near Jan. 1st isn't surprising as it was a ridiculous position to take in the first place. Ginx, Jerry and I will, in the end, verify with our early calls for a Big Winter. Playing a hunch is as good as any LR forecasting methodology as far as I'm concerned.

Hell yeah. That statement may be appropriate for RIC not for New England, and even then it's silly.

[Ginx snewx]

This is 1970 1971 Redux folks, we are golden, it only get better after this week. What Kev calls a torch is a blip on the screen.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is 1970 1971 Redux folks, we are golden, it only get better after this week. What Kev calls a torch is a blip on the screen.

The next 4 days are a torch..by anyone's definition. I hate it,,but it is what it is

[nynjpaweather]

It's a pattern reload and frankly we need it to melt out the snow on RT 18. I'm all for it! lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

The next 4 days are a torch..by anyone's definition. I hate it,,but it is what it is

Thurs/Fri look to be in the low 40's(+4 to +5) and Sat/Sun Upper 40's (+6-+8). This is on the highs for the day.

[Damage In Tolland]

Thurs/Fri look to be in the low 40's(+4 to +5) and Sat/Sun Upper 40's (+6-+8). This is on the highs for the day.

Those temps you posted are more for the valleys and torch spots.

GFS was way too cold for highs later this week AWT

[Baroclinic Zone]

Those temps you posted are more for the valleys and torch spots.

GFS was way too cold for highs later this week AWT

For TAN it looks like they took a blend of the GFS/NAM MOS.

[Logan11]

Around here the cold will be back in on Sunday anyway ...holding around low/mid 30's all day.

I'm P/O'd to get another extreme cutter but since the wind already decimated the snow on my lawn I'm not caring that much how bad the torch is on Saturday. Let's just get it over with.

For TAN it looks like they took a blend of the GFS/NAM MOS.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Around here the cold will be back in on Sunday anyway ...holding around low/mid 30's all day.

I'm P/O'd to get another extreme cutter but since the wind already decimated the snow on my lawn I'm not caring that much how bad the torch is on Saturday. Let's just get it over with.

Not sure how much rain we end up with but that may end up doing more damage than the warmth.

[mahk_webstah]

Reasons for optimism abound. The only killer is an NAO that is too strong. Best case scenario is the blocking relaxes a bit and pulses back and forth giving us the opportunity for SWFE and coastals. This actually seems like a great possibility. Combine that will strong climo for a strong March and we may end up with one of our best winters ever.

[Ginx snewx]

Reasons for optimism abound. The only killer is an NAO that is too strong. Best case scenario is the blocking relaxes a bit and pulses back and forth giving us the opportunity for SWFE and coastals. This actually seems like a great possibility. Combine that will strong climo for a strong March and we may end up with one of our best winters ever.

Welcome to the party, Jerry Pete and I are already three sheets to the wind. Time for a little food then second wind. Shot hour!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Donny Baseball Sutherland has cancelled his warm Jan idea..but hints at cold and dry for us

Conclusion:

The northern Mid-Atlantic region could experience near normal or somewhat below normal readings for January, though January won't be as cold as December was. Southern New England could experience below normal readings. A large area stretching across the Great Lakes region, Northern Plains, and at least the Pacific Northwest could be colder than normal. This area includes southern Ontario and southern Quebec. The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast will likely wind up on the warm side of normal. In terms of precipitation, the area running from eastern Texas across the Gulf Coast and then up the Eastern Seaboard will likely see less than normal precipitation. The West Coast could also be drier than normal. Near normal precipitation is likely in southern Ontario and southern Quebec.

I'd rather warm.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd rather warm.

Well then YFTL

[40/70 Benchmark]

As folks look at patterns, it's interesting to see the dramatically lower artic ice levels this winter. Whether this contributes to the pattern or is a result of the pattern I have no idea. But, it's remarkably out-of-kilter.

I think that is a function of the very negative NAO we have had this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well then YFTL

If it works out that way, yea.

I don't expect a ton more snow until March, anyway.

[Organizing Low]

i know you guys are coming off a nice event as the NAO relaxed and a big PNA spike

but hopefully the killer AO/NAO dont come back, but it looks like they will.....something of a more tempered version would be appreciated.

Tips idea of a chageable NAO for you guys delievering i like.

as for a stagnant neg NAO, without a PNA or some other teleconnector favorable, its not of much use i dont think.

clippers, SWFE and coastals are all no match for a strong NAO without some other favorable indice.

but it does ensure cold....and dry at least.

[Damage In Tolland]

If it works out that way, yea.

Cold and dry in the winter is far, far better than warm and mild..hands down

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cold and dry in the winter is far, far better than warm and mild..hands down

I'm not going to argue with you....to each their own.

If we had a snowpack to preserve, which we likely won't, then I would agree.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm not going to argue with you....to each their own.

If we had a snowpack to preserve, which we likely won't, then I would agree.

There's a snowstorm coming next week

[40/70 Benchmark]

i know you guys are coming off a nice event as the NAO relaxed and a big PNA spike

but hopefully the killer AO/NAO dont come back, but it looks like they will.....something of a more tempered version would be appreciated.

Tips idea of a chageable NAO for you guys delievering i like.

as for the neg NAO, without a PNA or some other teleconnector favorable, its not of much use i dont think.

clippers, SWFE and coastals are all no match for a strong NAO without some other favorable indice.

but it does ensure cold....and dry at least.

Couldn't agree more; I've had enough of the miraculous -12SD anomalies that I am supposed to bow down to, despite failing to produce anything worthy of memory IMBY.

I realize that it's gonna happen, but it's starting to get old.

Give me a nice, variable pattern with nothing too out of the ordinary and we are more likely to clean up

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well, a little warmer, with storminess, would be good for me, but on the CP not as much

Apparently not much in storms for a little while at least (until the 6th or 7th or so...)