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nynjpaweather

Meteorologist
  • Content count

    294
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About nynjpaweather

  • Birthday 08/03/1979

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  • Website URL
    http://www.nynjpaweather.com

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Freehold, NJ
  • Interests
    Weight lifting, astronomy, science in general, becoming President of the United States, good music, sports, NY Mets, Godzilla, and building my company!
  1. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    I love the comments......
  2. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    :Shakes head: Wrong. This is why I don't do forums. Alright, go ahead and believe what you like.
  3. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    Let me explain why this is not a Super El Nino. Look, I get that you see this Kelvin Wave induced spike and say this HAS to be a Super El Nino, but you miss one key point, duration. I use the ONI, that chart you see with each ENSO report from the CPC, to measure El Nino and La Nina events. The reason being is that it irons out these short terms spikes and crashes to give you a clear picture of how an ENSO event, warm or cold, influences the atmosphere. This process has been used for over 40 years and I see no reason why I should stop. The current ONI, which will be updated next week for October, is at 1.5. The El Nino from 1997/98 was at 2.3 for not just one month but for 3 months, which would have a significant impact on the 500 MB weather pattern over North America, no doubt. That El Nino also featured a -PDO period and below normal SSTA conditions over the western Atlantic. This year, complete opposite. So as you can see, the two years are not comparable at all.
  4. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    That's because this is not a Super El Nino or any nonsense like that. It's a strong central based El Nino that's about to steadily weaken with a positive PDO. Comparisons to other strong El Nino events like 97/98 simply just is not valid. Different set up in the Pacific, Atlantic, and in Siberia.
  5. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    Thank you. Let's see if it works out.
  6. And we begin.....

    Let the games being, next 3 weeks help forecast the AO. Not 100% air tight, but if you are forecasting a cold winter in the Eastern US, the snow growth and depth better be above normal or you'll have egg on your face.
  7. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    You know what's funny. You guys sit here and criticize myself, JB, DT, and others and yet none of you have the guts to go out there in the public and make your forecasts known. All you do is try to bring down other people. It's pathetic. I'm laying a challenge, before you guys starting throwing rocks through your glass houses, build a website or start a business, put your reputation and your career on the line every day, and put out a forecast. A detailed, forecast. Then bring it to clients and live or die with it. I'm willing to bet about 80% of this forum wouldn't last a month in such an environment.
  8. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    No, just my opinion on the overall pattern as a whole. Now, posting snow maps via the GFS, that is hype. And I don't need to drive traffic. I've actually had to turn down some consulting jobs. Too busy, so yeah......
  9. First, excellent job with the research. Second, this is a perfect example of zeroing in on only one aspect of the atmosphere and not using the data properly. You have to combine all factors in the atmosphere and piece them all together. Whether you are working with the QBO, SAI, SSTA, ENSO, or what ever; if you treat each as a stand alone to justify a forecast, you are going to get burned. You have to combine all these factors and weight each accordingly. Don't be blinded by statistics that wash out and hide trust multi-decadal climate signals (that are natural BTW). You know what would be a good addition to this. Find out the SAI in these years and see if there was any correlation between these warm years and the state of snow in Siberia. Could that be the difference since the 2000's?
  10. Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    I rarely go on forums anymore. However I heard of some "comments" so I figure I'll just lay this out. If you think I'm wrong, well okay. I'm fine with that. We all have different points of view on how the atmosphere will work out. At the very least though I provided over 75 pages of reasoning WHY I forecasted the way I forecasted. Now, I don't expect any one here to write a similar report, but if you are going to disagree, at least explain why. Otherwise, you just look come off like a child. One a positive note, Americanwx's models do kick ass. Good jump with that. Drop the forum, keep the models.
  11. Vendor Forecast Discussion

    Yep, and it certainly has been so far.
  12. This book should be a must read for all universities teaching meteorology. Excellent information and research!!
  13. Reconsider majoring in meteorology!

    If they only went into meteorology because of a movie than they will drop to the way side sooner or later. If you are good, one way or another you'll make it. It's as simple as the cream rises to the top. I'm not saying it's easy, I"m saying it's up to you to do it.
  14. Reconsider majoring in meteorology!

    You know what? No regrets at all. Sure, my brother is far more financially well off, but he hates his job and never seems happy. I on the other hand have a small apartment, but love what I do every day and answers to no one. The point is that you can make a good living in this field if you work very hard and you love it. My advise to the person who made this post, move out of the field and get out of my way. Period.
  15. Reconsider majoring in meteorology!

    If you come into this field thinking you will automatically make a lot of money without paying your dues, don't bother. I'm in this because I love meteorology, not because I need to drive a fancy car. For the record, I've had the same truck for about 12 years that's been through tornadoes, blizzards, floods, and hurricanes. If you love forecasting and love the science, you better be prepared to make some hard choices. I for one was not interested in the National Weather Service. Don't get me wrong, they are great and I respect what they do, but I've always had an independent streak and wanted my own company. So I bit the bullet and went out to Oklahoma to learn how the business works. I got paid crap but learned a lot, just like any field. When I knew for certain I was under paid, I left to start my own firm. If you think that getting a job in this field was going to be easy, let me welcome you to reality. Reality is the economy sucks and finding a job in this field that paid well even in a good economy would mean you'd have to take some not so good jobs and work a lot of off hours. But if you love this field, what does it matter if you work 9 to 5 (which you rarely ever will as a forecaster) or 10 PM to 6 AM. You are forecasting, studying the weather, you are doing what you love. No? So the real question I have for this guy is are you going to quit just become life isn't easy, but let me tell you something, life isn't easy for any one. You either step up and have the balls to go out on your own or you don't. Basically it comes down to that.
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