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About nynjpaweather

  • Birthday 08/03/1979

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  • Location:
    Freehold, NJ
  • Interests
    Weight lifting, astronomy, science in general, becoming President of the United States, good music, sports, NY Mets, Godzilla, and building my company!
  1. I love the comments......
  2. :Shakes head: Wrong. This is why I don't do forums. Alright, go ahead and believe what you like.
  3. Let me explain why this is not a Super El Nino. Look, I get that you see this Kelvin Wave induced spike and say this HAS to be a Super El Nino, but you miss one key point, duration. I use the ONI, that chart you see with each ENSO report from the CPC, to measure El Nino and La Nina events. The reason being is that it irons out these short terms spikes and crashes to give you a clear picture of how an ENSO event, warm or cold, influences the atmosphere. This process has been used for over 40 years and I see no reason why I should stop. The current ONI, which will be updated next week for October, is at 1.5. The El Nino from 1997/98 was at 2.3 for not just one month but for 3 months, which would have a significant impact on the 500 MB weather pattern over North America, no doubt. That El Nino also featured a -PDO period and below normal SSTA conditions over the western Atlantic. This year, complete opposite. So as you can see, the two years are not comparable at all.
  4. That's because this is not a Super El Nino or any nonsense like that. It's a strong central based El Nino that's about to steadily weaken with a positive PDO. Comparisons to other strong El Nino events like 97/98 simply just is not valid. Different set up in the Pacific, Atlantic, and in Siberia.
  5. Thank you. Let's see if it works out.
  6. Let the games being, next 3 weeks help forecast the AO. Not 100% air tight, but if you are forecasting a cold winter in the Eastern US, the snow growth and depth better be above normal or you'll have egg on your face.
  7. You know what's funny. You guys sit here and criticize myself, JB, DT, and others and yet none of you have the guts to go out there in the public and make your forecasts known. All you do is try to bring down other people. It's pathetic. I'm laying a challenge, before you guys starting throwing rocks through your glass houses, build a website or start a business, put your reputation and your career on the line every day, and put out a forecast. A detailed, forecast. Then bring it to clients and live or die with it. I'm willing to bet about 80% of this forum wouldn't last a month in such an environment.
  8. No, just my opinion on the overall pattern as a whole. Now, posting snow maps via the GFS, that is hype. And I don't need to drive traffic. I've actually had to turn down some consulting jobs. Too busy, so yeah......
  9. First, excellent job with the research. Second, this is a perfect example of zeroing in on only one aspect of the atmosphere and not using the data properly. You have to combine all factors in the atmosphere and piece them all together. Whether you are working with the QBO, SAI, SSTA, ENSO, or what ever; if you treat each as a stand alone to justify a forecast, you are going to get burned. You have to combine all these factors and weight each accordingly. Don't be blinded by statistics that wash out and hide trust multi-decadal climate signals (that are natural BTW). You know what would be a good addition to this. Find out the SAI in these years and see if there was any correlation between these warm years and the state of snow in Siberia. Could that be the difference since the 2000's?
  10. I rarely go on forums anymore. However I heard of some "comments" so I figure I'll just lay this out. If you think I'm wrong, well okay. I'm fine with that. We all have different points of view on how the atmosphere will work out. At the very least though I provided over 75 pages of reasoning WHY I forecasted the way I forecasted. Now, I don't expect any one here to write a similar report, but if you are going to disagree, at least explain why. Otherwise, you just look come off like a child. One a positive note, Americanwx's models do kick ass. Good jump with that. Drop the forum, keep the models.
  11. Yep, and it certainly has been so far.
  12. Doing the interview was a lot of fun and nice little boost in business. :-)
  13. Kind of hard to have accumulating snowfall along the coast with temperatures forecasting in the upper 30's, but I do like the idea of a nice snow threat for northwestern Connecticut and New England. We'll have to keep an eye on it.
  14. This book should be a must read for all universities teaching meteorology. Excellent information and research!!
  15. Most of my clients need a forecast beyond what you see here. Stuff like when they should have their men working, farming preparation, flight conditions, etc. If you don't need any of that, than yeah I can see why you wouldn't want to pay $10 a month. Does that bother me? No, of course not. I don't want a client that's unhappy and what I provide likely is not for you. So if you say I get everything I need from a forum, I say than great. Use that. A lot of people only need what I have on twitter, which is fine too. I started my service because I was doing the same thing for another company and not getting paid what I wanted, plus I had to live in Oklahoma. Now, I'm doing the same thing, paid well, and get to live close to my family. In short, whether I'm liked or not is immaterial to me for this forum. If my clients like what I do and that base keeps growing, which it is, that is what matters. One more thing: Busts happen. They'll happen to every meteorologist you read. It's part of the game. What's important is to be upfront about that bust. Explain what happened to the best of your ability and then move forward. The one issue I have with JB and HM is that they ignore their busts like as if they never happen. He did it right to my "face" on twitter. I was shocked. One thing you'll get from myself and DT for that matter is not only admitting a bust but explaining why we were wrong.