The Pattern Ahead

[40/70 Benchmark]

There's a snowstorm coming next week

We'll revisit the issue at that point, but until I see it...I'm all set.

[40/70 Benchmark]

961mb and 70 mph gusts!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1' here.

Give me 990mb and 15mph gusts that net me 2' and I'll die happy.

Enough.

[Ginx snewx]

Cold and dry in the winter is far, far better than warm and mild..hands down

Now that the Warministas have abandoned the hot January idea instead they are saying cold and dry. We finished Dec well over normal precip, expect the same, that supposedly dead STJ seems to keep coming at us. I can not believe some are STILL bitching about the neg NAO, good god almighty. I am beginning to think that some people are insatiable.

[Organizing Low]

Couldn't agree more; I've had enough of the miraculous -12SD anomalies that I am supposed to bow down to, despite failing to produce anything worthy of memory IMBY.

I realize that it's gonna happen, but it's mstarting to get old.

Give me a nice, variable pattern with nothing too out of the ordinary and we are more likely to clean up

you guys are northern tier.

you guys GET winter every year, regardless.... unless its an anomalous blowtorch winter for everyone.

obviously, the NAO is much more important for NYC on south.

yes the NAO its important for NE too, and yeah us too....esp in a Nina winter like this....but in changeable/combination forms IMO is much much better.

a stagnant NAO is totally useless for up here, and its pretty close to useless for you guys too i have deduced if there is no offsetter.

[Ginx snewx]

We'll revisit the issue at that point, but until I see it...I'm all set.

You and Ryan should room together, enjoy your 18+ snowstorms then torch until the next one. Do you do ANY winter sports?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now that the Warministas have abandoned the hot Januaryu idea instaed they are saying cold and dry. We finished Dec well over normal precip, expect the same, that supposedly dead STJ seems to keep coming at us. I can not believe some are STILL bitching about the neg NAO, good god almighty. I am begining to think that some people are insatiable.

Oh gimme a break; it's human nature to want to try something else when you have been struggling.

What happens when you have a prolific slugger who is 0-30 over the course of the past week.......he is probably going to sit for a day or two.

Very negative NAOs are not bad news, but the FACT of the matter is that it is not the optimal state for sne....a more modest, variable negative NAO is optimal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You and Ryan should room together, enjoy your 18+ snowstorms then torch until the next one. Do you do ANY winter sports?

No.

I couldn't care less whether or not ski country maintains a solid base; I either want snow imby, or I would like to be comfy.

[Organizing Low]

Now that the Warministas have abandoned the hot January idea instead they are saying cold and dry. We finished Dec well over normal precip, expect the same, that supposedly dead STJ seems to keep coming at us. I can not believe some are STILL bitching about the neg NAO, good god almighty. I am beginning to think that some people are insatiable.

well i guess many did not count on the NAO really controlling the pattern here in the east over the Nina.

i recall there was one forecaster who took that approach, but i cant remember who it was.

[40/70 Benchmark]

well i guess many did not count on the NAO really controlling the pattern here in the east over the Nina.

i recall there was one forecaster who took that approach, but i cant remember who it was.

I thought the NAO would be negative....there were some.

[mahk_webstah]

Welcome to the party, Jerry Pete and I are already three sheets to the wind. Time for a little food then second wind. Shot hour!

I'll have a nice single malt please...not too smoky

[HoarfrostHubb]

No.

I couldn't care less whether or not ski country maintains a solid base; I either want snow imby, or I would like to be comfy.

I thought you skated/played hockey for some reason.

Still Dec 29... long way to go. 3 months+ of winter left.

[Organizing Low]

I thought the NAO would be negative....there were some.

yeah true

dont get me wrong, i apprecaite the NAO's efforts to at least ensure we are cold......but thats only if i know im going to get snow out of the deal. if not, then for me personally warmth is much better proposition.

of course, we'll never know until we do the final tallies in april at which time its too late to complain.

OT- i just realized that all 4 of boston's sports teams have a legitimate chance to win it all in 2011.

(i dont think the Bs will, but this must be the finest 4 crop ever entered i would think)....

[#NoPoles]

not sure if this type of thinking will go over well with you guys...but...since we had an underperforming winter (in terms of snowstorms) last winter, I am thankful that our near continuous steroidal -NAO was able to exhaust the cold air supply and allow an early spring!

i'm not a fan of winter in april and may, spring for a week and a half the beginning of june, then somewhere around mid june-ish summer appears out of no where...

if i had to look on the brightside of things...since it was quite obvious we weren't going to get any storms, i'm glad we actually had a spring...

[40/70 Benchmark]

not sure if this type of thinking will go over well with you guys...but...since we had an underperforming winter (in terms of snowstorms) last winter, I am thankful that our near continuous steroidal -NAO was able to exhaust the cold air supply and allow an early spring!

i'm not a fan of winter in april and may, spring for a week and a half the beginning of june, then somewhere around mid june-ish summer appears out of no where...

if i had to look on the brightside of things...since it was quite obvious we weren't going to get any storms, i'm glad we actually had a spring...

I agree, but for me it tips the other way along about May because I absoloutely detest the heat.

[#NoPoles]

I agree, but for me it tips the other way along about May because I absoloutely detest the heat.

i wouldn't say i detest the "heat" part of summer, but rather i detest the "humidity"...and this past summer was brutal! i came back for august and september...i can't imagine how you all survived!

the two good things about living in the southwest, no humidity and no mosquitoes!!!

[Logan11]

Cold always beats warm IMO ...even if it is dry. ..and at least the place doesn't turn into a mud hell here.

As to the - NAO, we really need it in this La Nina to counter the normal signal. If we lose the negative NAO fully then we are entering cutter city.

The degree of the negative NAO will tell the tale as to whether it's all suppression or some good snow threats emerge.

It's proving rather difficult to balance the negative NAO with the negative or neutral PNA and get snow events this season. But we got the PNA positive this past weekend and at least NE and far ENY scored a good snowstorm.

I'd rather warm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i wouldn't say i detest the "heat" part of summer, but rather i detest the "humidity"...and this past summer was brutal! i came back for august and september...i can't imagine how you all survived!

the two good things about living in the southwest, no humidity and no mosquitoes!!!

Yea, humidity is the worst.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, I text Kev today that I felt this season maybe taking on a bit of a 2004-05, sifted a bit to the nw type of appeal....what do you think....

One of the obvious problems with that analogy is that that this past system was of a Miller A classification and 04-05 would have none of that, but on an entirely anecdotal level, one could argue that tremendous blocking and a potent negative enso event could possibly produce the said result.

Obviously watered down, somewhat in all likelihood.

This winter will be remembered for a long time when all is said and done and I have always been confident of that.

Bump for Will....

[Logan11]

I genuinely enjoy Spring and the greening of the landscape etc. for about three months usually - let's say April -> June. (That is when I'm not choking from pollen) Then by early July as the unpleasant hot/humid days hit, I am totally ready for cold and snow again. If I am ever rich I need to get a place like down in the Andes or the mountains of the South Island of NZ to retreat to for July/August. Then I'll come home and enjoy the pristine Fall days etc.

not sure if this type of thinking will go over well with you guys...but...since we had an underperforming winter (in terms of snowstorms) last winter, I am thankful that our near continuous steroidal -NAO was able to exhaust the cold air supply and allow an early spring!

i'm not a fan of winter in april and may, spring for a week and a half the beginning of june, then somewhere around mid june-ish summer appears out of no where...

if i had to look on the brightside of things...since it was quite obvious we weren't going to get any storms, i'm glad we actually had a spring...

[#NoPoles]

I genuinely enjoy Spring and the greening of the landscape etc. for about three months usually - let's say April -> June. (That is when I'm not choking from pollen) Then by early July as the unpleasant hot/humid days hit, I am totally ready for cold and snow again. If I am ever rich I need to get a place like down in the Andes or the mountains of the South Island of NZ to retreat to for July/August. Then I'll come home and enjoy the pristine Fall days etc.

ha! i've been known to think about that as well! I don't have allergies (knock on wood) so i actually think summer in New England is amazing- USUALLY we don't get those god-awful stretches of oppressive humidity that our southern neighbors have to deal with...USUALLY we get some humidity, followed by a dry (cold) front sweeping through to make things pleasant again...last summer was a bit much...i'm sure it stretched some people's patience and sanity very thin...although i bet our southern cohorts were laughing at us and calling us wimps, the way we laugh at them when they think the world has ended when they get an inch of snow!

[NorEastermass128]

Well from what I can tell, we enter a very quiet pattern for the foreseeable future. 40s tomorrow --->Sunday (approaching 50). That should wipe out 60%+ of the dry snowpack.

There is nothing on the models for next week. My forecast...good sleeping for American Weather Forum members for the next 5-8 days.

[ORH_wxman]

Bump for Will....

Actually its funny you mention that '04-'05 would have none of the Miller A action...but it did have a miller A...Dec 26-27, 2004....hammered SE VA and Cape Cod...we got decent snow on the western edge.

Kind of funny it was to the exact day 6 years later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Actually its funny you mention that '04-'05 would have none of the Miller A action...but it did have a miller A...Dec 26-27, 2004....hammered SE VA and Cape Cod...we got decent snow on the western edge.

Kind of funny it was to the exact day 6 years later.

Oops...good call....I forgot that one hammered down there.

Caters even more to my point....big year in the works.

[ORH_wxman]

Oops...good call....I forgot that one hammered down there.

Caters even more to my point....big year in the works.

We'll see, that year was a weak Nino...it had a huge +PNA most of the second half of winter. Probably nothing like this winter will, but we can still clean up in a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

[weathafella]

The next 4 days are a torch..by anyone's definition. I hate it,,but it is what it is

How is departures of 5, 5, 5, and 10 a torch? I mean if anytime the times go above 40 is a torch then we're being far too generous. Kind like saying, sunny and cold, temperatures in the 30s.

[dryslot]

It was good to get a couple of good nights sleep over the last 2 days, Slight torch, Then back to cold with a few chances for snow it seems in the next couple of weeks, Got to go ride while the snow is here........

[40/70 Benchmark]

We'll see, that year was a weak Nino...it had a huge +PNA most of the second half of winter. Probably nothing like this winter will, but we can still clean up in a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

I think the monster NAO will compensate for other shortcomings....like I said, I don't expect 107.5"...I predicted like 70", but 90" would not shock me.

[weathafella]

I agree, but for me it tips the other way along about May because I absoloutely detest the heat.

I really like you, consider you a friend...but damned you are tough to please meteorogically. Not a knock by any means. But to live in this region, you have to endure tons of wx that is distasteful.

[Logan11]

I wonder if this recent storm was a true Miller A. Yes it was in the sense that the low pressure could be tracked down to the Gulf, but it moved on an offshore trajectory (miss DC) and didn't explode I don't think until it got energized by the phase with the northern stream off the Mid Atlantic and NJ..

Maybe it's still a Miller A.... but a very rare Miller A that would utterly miss DC and then demolish NYC. Snow pattern reminded me more of the 12/30/00 Miller B.

Oops...good call....I forgot that one hammered down there.

Caters even more to my point....big year in the works.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really like you, consider you a friend...but damned you are tough to please meteorogically. Not a knock by any means. But to live in this region, you have to endure tons of wx that is distasteful.

I know......I do tolerate it, though; I bi*** to no end, yet I'm always back for more.