The Pattern Ahead

[ORH_wxman]

I'm guessing closer to 68-70"... not sure since I have not really tallied it until this past year. It seemed like a bad year but I finished with 76"

A bit OT, but you average more than 68-70" of snow...that's basically what I average. Probably 74" or so there.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not high on the anafront threat. But once the front passes, I think we'll have chances. Hopefully its not 10 days of cold and dry...but analogs suggest well above average chances of a significant snow event in that time frame after Jan 4-5...and looking at the mean pattern, no reason to disagree with the analogs too much.

If we can get anything interesting out of that anafront, then all gravy IMHO.

agreed - my experience is that ana events - if you want to call them that .. . - tend to model 10 times and you get an actual ana deal to occur 0 out of those 10 times... it's the 20th or 30th time it was modeled that one occurs - about once every 10 years.

more often than not, dry air at lower els makes that a virga at sunset job, or, the system evolves in future runs to be an actual wave with enough overrunning to make it less like an ana thing, and more like an open wave cyclogenesis. The 12z Euro does something similar, btw.

speaking of which ... the last Euro run could be setting the table there with an apparent rise in western heights and an ejecting old SW closed low ready and poised to phase with the N stream down wind. buuuuut, odds are overwhelming that appeal will not last the next run. we'll see.

[Ginx snewx]

Does anyone have a theory as to why the Euro seems to hate -NAOs so much? Again you can already see it trying to squash the Greenland block by 216 hours....the Euro even during some of our nastiest -NAO winters the last decade seems to always want to scour the block out in the long range.

Huh? Not much of a squish I mean goes from -340 to -260 but that's not a big squish at all.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The system at the end of the run. Another system diving through the upper plains/western lakes...could be a little redeveloper...or if it worked out, potentially phase with the southern stream energy bowling ball the Euro has rolling through Texas.

Yeah, I wonder if the euro is reflecting its old bias, and is a day, or half-day slow with the bowling ball.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like a general 1-3 type deal on Monday. Similiar to the last anafront which dropped 1-3 here in CT and areas farther west about a week and half ago. It'll be nice to freshen the snowpack that we lose and get ready for something bigger days 7-10

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like a general 1-3 type deal on Monday. Similiar to the last anafront which dropped 1-3 here in CT and areas farther west about a week and half ago. It'll be nice to freshen the snowpack that we lose and get ready for something bigger days 7-10

Ironically, the Euro gives eastern areas a better shot at accumulating snow from that event...but I'm not sold on much of anything happening with it yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ironically, the Euro gives eastern areas a better shot at accumulating snow from that event...but I'm not sold on much of anything happening with it yet.

I think it's a more generalized widespread 1-3 rather than east or west type deal. Alot of folks are getting a little irate over the ene /wne thing I think.

[ORH_wxman]

I think it's a more generalized widespread 1-3 rather than east or west type deal. Alot of folks are getting a little irate over the ene /wne thing I think.

Blame it on GC.

Euro ensembles say watch for some potential on Jan 5th or so and then again Jan 9th.

[weathafella]

Blame it on GC.

Euro ensembles say watch for some potential on Jan 5th or so and then again Jan 9th.

Eastern winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

Blame it on GC.

Euro ensembles say watch for some potential on Jan 5th or so and then again Jan 9th.

3 possible snow events over the next 12 days to track..let's just get thru Sunday and try and minimize the torch and torch related damage with either more cloudy days like today/or colder nighttime mins and limited mixing capping daytime highs

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Wow should actually be an active period now. Will be intersting to see how Sunday/Monday frontal wave unfolds. EURO actually shows a strong upper level trough moving through the northeast on Sunday/Monday.

[cpickett79]

Wow should actually be an active period now. Will be intersting to see how Sunday/Monday frontal wave unfolds. EURO actually shows a strong upper level trough moving through the northeast on Sunday/Monday.

that's what we want ...and/ or surface cyclogenesis....not..this afronal low garbage. that is like routing for vason varitek to win the triple crown next year.

snow pack didn't take a hit today....thanks to the clouds. As rev kev asked in last post to to what we can do to limit the damage to snow pack thru sunday i will try and have a bbq tommorrow early and let the smoke escape to the atmosphere. hopefully we could get some more clouds and dp's are low thankfully as well.

[Cold Miser]

i will try and have a bbq tommorrow early and let the smoke escape to the atmosphere. hopefully we could get some more clouds and dp's are low thankfully as well.

LOL.

I purchsed a few thousand square feet of tarps and am going to throw them all over my lawn before the sun kicks in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

agreed - my experience is that ana events - if you want to call them that .. . - tend to model 10 times and you get an actual ana deal to occur 0 out of those 10 times... it's the 20th or 30th time it was modeled that one occurs - about once every 10 years.

more often than not, dry air at lower els makes that a virga at sunset job, or, the system evolves in future runs to be an actual wave with enough overrunning to make it less like an ana thing, and more like an open wave cyclogenesis. The 12z Euro does something similar, btw.

speaking of which ... the last Euro run could be setting the table there with an apparent rise in western heights and an ejecting old SW closed low ready and poised to phase with the N stream down wind. buuuuut, odds are overwhelming that appeal will not last the next run. we'll see.

Yea, they are garbage.....I know that is going enrage Ginx and Kev, but it is what it is.

[Organizing Low]

that's what we want ...and/ or surface cyclogenesis....not..this afronal low garbage. that is like routing for vason varitek to win the triple crown next year.

snow pack didn't take a hit today....thanks to the clouds. As rev kev asked in last post to to what we can do to limit the damage to snow pack thru sunday i will try and have a bbq tommorrow early and let the smoke escape to the atmosphere. hopefully we could get some more clouds and dp's are low thankfully as well.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Yes, we actually want the models to trend to an actual low pressure system along a front, and not an anafrontal type event. Timing of the front moving through and the moisture from the low developing will be tough to pin down. Models are trending with a slower trough passage as well as a slower surface low development. 50/50 low is in a favorable position and the 12z EURO digs the most with the upper level trough then most of the other models. I will not get excited until I see this on the models on Friday.

[weathafella]

One anafrontal system....perhaps the most widely known occurred 11/29/95 to kick off the season in a big way for solid accumulating snow. An epic winter ensured. Another I recall was in late Jan 1994. Among the rare above normal days featured a system that run west of the cp...up the HV and temps spiked up to 50. Strong fropa followed by 3 inches of completely unmodeled snow. But most of the time, they are yawners. Best to not concentrate on them but if it occurs, fine.

[Damage In Tolland]

One anafrontal system....perhaps the most widely known occurred 11/29/95 to kick off the season in a big way for solid accumulating snow. An epic winter ensured. Another I recall was in late Jan 1994. Among the rare above normal days featured a system that run west of the cp...up the HV and temps spiked up to 50. Strong fropa followed by 3 inches of completely unmodeled snow. But most of the time, they are yawners. Best to not concentrate on them but if it occurs, fine.

I like to concentrate on any modelled potential snow..even if only an inch or 2

[weathafella]

I like to concentrate on any modelled potential snow..even if only an inch or 2

Yes. But in a non obsessional way that still allows normal sleep and not much interruption from daily routine.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

18z GEFS means show strong GOM moisture and an earlier strengthening of developing frontal low pressure center. The mean is coming in slower and stronger each run. I think it is best to look at the trend with the models right now, rather than what they show.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yes. But in a non obsessional way that still allows normal sleep and not much interruption from daily routine.

One thing I usually won't do is allow my snow obsession to make me lose sleep. As we know,,,I don't stay up late for models.. I will tend to get up earlier like at 4:00 the morning of or during a storm...but I won't lose anymore than an hour or 2.. Though during the blizz I did stay up till 10:30..and was up- at 4:00

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

18z NOGAPS has trended towards the frontal wave scenario, however is slower with the development then the 18z GFS and GEFS means.

H5 charts from both the operational GFS and ensemble means show some good consensus right now on all of the features in place. This allows the upper level trough to dig further south more and ridging to develop in the Maritimes with the 50/50 low displaced further to the east however. Also we have some ridging into British Columbia, Canada. Still could be a good quick hitting storm.

[weathafella]

18z NOGAPS has trended towards the frontal wave scenario, however is slower with the development then the 18z GFS and GEFS means.

H5 charts from both the operational GFS and ensemble means show some good consensus right now on all of the features in place. This allows the upper level trough to dig further south more and ridging to develop in the Maritimes with the 50/50 low displaced further to the east however. Also we have some ridging into British Columbia, Canada. Still could be a good quick hitting storm.

[weathafella]

Actually, I gave you the benefit of the doubt and checked Nogaps...and there 's not a drop of frozen in that qpf ...none. H85 temp is in western MA by the time it clears the coast.....skies are clearing.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Actually, I gave you the benefit of the doubt and checked Nogaps...and there 's not a drop of frozen in that qpf ...none. H85 temp is in western MA by the time it clears the coast.....skies are clearing.

I said it is trending, the models are trending towards this solution, it is not where we want it to be right now, it is trending, the models are trending give them some more time before the right solution is available. Don't take the model verbatim now, wait and watch the trends.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

I think I said trends about 6-7 times.

[Ginx snewx]

I think I said trends about 6-7 times.

It is NBD, only a chance at getting a couple of inches at best to start off a possible nice period.

[mahk_webstah]

I said it is trending, the models are trending towards this solution, it is not where we want it to be right now, it is trending, the models are trending give them some more time before the right solution is available. Don't take the model verbatim now, wait and watch the trends.

Be careful....you risk becoming known as the "anafrontal guy" and you know where that could lead around here.

[MaineJayhawk]

Be careful....you risk becoming known as the "anafrontal guy" and you know where that could lead around here.

He would be the sidekick to Kevin's "Full Frontal Guy".

All this talk about a favorable pattern has my weenie standing at attention. I was burned out for a couple days after the big miss here.

[ski MRG]

He would be the sidekick to Kevin's "Full Frontal Guy".

All this talk about a favorable pattern has my weenie standing at attention. I was burned out for a couple days after the big miss here.

Dude, love the 'Circle of Trust' logo. Super fab. I'm completely out of the loop with the weather picture . Skiing a lot and no time to read up for the next week or so. Hoping for more snow, quite sure we're going to go into an active pattern here before long. Winter is so much fun, glad to have some good snow on the ground. Next?!?!?!