The Pattern Ahead

[40/70 Benchmark]

So essentially we are looking at a boring week ahead..... JB says he is issuing an update to his January forecast on Monday. It is becoming clear his big eastern warm up is failing. He has two roblems ...didn't anticipate the rebuilding negative NAO and he now says that he sees warming up at the 10 mb level in the polar regions and this could point to a major Siberian airmass dropping south mid month. At that point we might actually want the - NAO to relax some so we can get some s/w flow events.

It's too bad that have to reload after our latest dissapointment, but it is what is is; once the anal crowd stops hallucinating an earlier threat into existence, we can collectively focus on the next real threat toward mid month.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's too bad that have to reload after our latest dissapointment, but it is what is is; once the anal crowd stops hallucinating an earlier threat into existence, we can collectively focus on the next real threat toward mid month.

Jan 8th-9th is mid month?

[OSUmetstud]

It's too bad that have to reload after our latest dissapointment, but it is what is is; once the anal crowd stops hallucinating an earlier threat into existence, we can collectively focus on the next real threat toward mid month.

Are you negative on the 5th-10th threat too? Or just the anafrontal thing?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jan 8th-9th is mid month?

It's toward it, yes.....I kind of borrowed a page out of your book, there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks more like an analfront going through early next week. Forget it.

Forget what?

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's too bad that have to reload after our latest dissapointment, but it is what is is; once the anal crowd stops hallucinating an earlier threat into existence, we can collectively focus on the next real threat toward mid month.

I think Kevin was the only one looking for anal satisfaction. I was looking at the possibility of a s/w amplifying just after the front pushed through. We will have multiple threats after the 5th/6th of January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Are you negative on the 5th-10th threat too? Or just the anafrontal thing?

TBH, I haven't really looked at it because I need to step back for a bit and actually function and sleep.....but my guess is that it may be a Kev special in the sense that it's light-mod threat and we await the big threat thereafter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think Kevin was the only one looking for anal satisfaction. I was looking at the possibility of a s/w amplifying just after the front pushed through. We will have multiple threats after the 5th/6th of January.

I'm not negative on January, but I do think we are in for a relatively meager couple of weeks......and you know how I think the winter fun is going to be propertioned; fairly heavily on March.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think Kevin was the only one looking for anal satisfaction. I was looking at the possibility of a s/w amplifying just after the front pushed through. We will have multiple threats after the 5th/6th of January.

It's not an anafront. It's a wave that develops on the front..and the threat is very real for couple inches. Not sure why some are downplaying it when it's on half the models and their ensembles

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's not an anafront. It's a wave that develops on the front..and the threat is very real for couple inches. Not sure why some are downplaying it when it's on half the models and their ensembles

It's not a pig....there's lipstick on it!

[ORH_wxman]

The pattern is definitely conductive for something in the Jan 5-10 (and beyond range) but there's no guarantee. I also wouldn't get married to model solutions more than 4-5 days out (hopefully people have learned their lesson on this).

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's not an anafront. It's a wave that develops on the front..and the threat is very real for couple inches. Not sure why some are downplaying it when it's on half the models and their ensembles

You were already shot down by Brian and Scott in the past hour, so the threat is not what it was modeled yesterday.

[Damage In Tolland]

You were already shot down by Brian and Scott in the past hour, so the threat is not what it was modeled yesterday.

I could care less if they don't like the threat. I do and I will follow it. Many times we see these things ebb and flow on the models

[Baroclinic Zone]

I could care less if they don't like the threat. I do and I will follow it. Many times we see these things ebb and flow on the models

Have fun. I'm heading north to enjoy the snow. I won't look at any more models till Sunday night. By that time we'll know if the anal lube will occur.

[CoastalWx]

It's not an anafront. It's a wave that develops on the front..and the threat is very real for couple inches. Not sure why some are downplaying it when it's on half the models and their ensembles

I'm just not big on it right now. Maybe it's possible for a coating to an inch for somebody, but I don't really see it, and it doesn't do anything for me right now. That's all I meant...of course you can follow it if you want.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Little clipper action at 168h.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm just not big on it right now. Maybe it's possible for a coating to an inch for somebody, but I don't really see it, and it doesn't do anything for me right now. That's all I meant...of course you can follow it if you want.

Maybe it ends up being not a big deal..but when i see all that spread and western solutions on the GEFS it tells me to at least watch it. It's better than Ray posting about no threats until Jan 15-30th

[ORH_wxman]

We actuallyhave potential for clipper action before that...at 132-138 hours...it gets slightly squashed this run, but it could def give us a light snow in the future.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We actuallyhave potential for clipper action before that...at 132-138 hours...it gets slightly squashed this run, but it could def give us a light snow in the future.

Yeah, yo can see the s/w in Iowa.

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

The 1-3 of Jan frontal wave/ potential low pressure system looks interesting. The amplified look to the pattern is present, given that we have a Manitoba Mauler disturbance in the mix, which tells me the pattern is quite amplified and we have a good sized ridge over the western NOAM region. However it looks like it could be a bigger event for western areas rather than eastern areas given the lack of a quicker frontal passage. Low pressure center occludes over northern Ontario and slows the progression of the front. The amplified nature of the pattern and the pNA ridge axis further west shows me that this pattern could correct further southwest in the future. Again without the model support needed I am not all excited about this potential, but it is something to keep an eye out for and will the next 4 days. 3/12 GEFS members show a 988mb low just east of or over ME at hour 96. We need the disturbances to phase a little faster, or to actually phase before we get excited about this system.

[Baroclinic Zone]

La la land.

[Mr Torchey]

It's too bad that have to reload after our latest dissapointment, but it is what is is; once the anal crowd stops hallucinating an earlier threat into existence, we can collectively focus on the next real threat toward mid month.

Yeah, its been a real bummer playing in a foot + of snow, and those 60 mph wind gusts were a real downer!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe it ends up being not a big deal..but when i see all that spread and western solutions on the GEFS it tells me to at least watch it. It's better than Ray posting about no threats until Jan 15-30th

LOL You're such a pouty little brat sometimes.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah, thats the Jan 9th (give or take a day) potential.

Hopefully we can get a couple systems to amplify into the block. No guarantees of course.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, its been a real bummer playing in a foot + of snow, and those 60 mph wind gusts were a real downer!

It's all relative.

[Damage In Tolland]

The 1-3 of Jan frontal wave/ potential low pressure system looks interesting. The amplified look to the pattern is present, given that we have a Manitoba Mauler disturbance in the mix, which tells me the pattern is quite amplified and we have a good sized ridge over the western NOAM region. However it looks like it could be a bigger event for western areas rather than eastern areas given the lack of a quicker frontal passage. Low pressure center occludes over northern Ontario and slows the progression of the front. The amplified nature of the pattern and the pNA ridge axis further west shows me that this pattern could correct further southwest in the future. Again without the model support needed I am not all excited about this potential, but it is something to keep an eye out for and will the next 4 days. 3/12 GEFS members show a 988mb low just east of or over ME at hour 96. We need the disturbances to phase a little faster, or to actually phase before we get excited about this system.

Noone is looking for a wound up storm with the wave...Just a quick 1-3 or maybe 2-4 type deal as the cold front passes, stalls, and a weak wave rides up along it. Not hard to envision at all

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, thats the Jan 9th (give or take a day) potential.

Hopefully we can get a couple systems to amplify into the block. No guarantees of course.

I have no doubt the threats will be there. This upcoming pattern looks similar to the last with the retrograding PV.

[cpickett79]

Yeah, its been a real bummer playing in a foot + of snow, and those 60 mph wind gusts were a real downer!

ya i don't know what planet people are on but HELLO we just had one of the worst HPC busts go from out to sea to hitting us .....within 48 hrs of the event starting! and gave most of the population areas a Foot or MORE of snow. the vast majority are happy k

i can see why Dave and MPM may not be thrilled....but ray man you got a foot. So you thought we would probably see 15-25? no biggie.... There was Zero dissapointment and in fact i don't think dissapointment should come into the thought process when you have such 50 hour epic FAIL from the models that went your way.......i would look at it like ya it could have been more and i thought it may have given me more....but the LASTING IMPRINT is that we weren't supposed to get nearly anything 72 hours out. i mean that way your forecast could bust a little bit but it could be relatively overlooked given that a couple days prior it would have taken a huge model bust to get that foot.

[OKpowdah]

La la land.

A lot of stuff going on in the flow there

[40/70 Benchmark]

ya i don't know what planet people are on but HELLO we just had one of the worst HPC busts go from out to sea to hitting us .....within 48 hrs of the event starting! and gave most of the population areas a Foot or MORE of snow. the vast majority are happy k

i can see why Dave and MPM may not be thrilled....but ray man you got a foot. So you thought we would probably see 15-25? no biggie.... There was Zero dissapointment and in fact i don't think dissapointment should come into the thought process when you have such 50 hour epic FAIL from the models that went your way.......i would look at it like ya it could have been more and i thought it may have given me more....but the LASTING IMPRINT is that we weren't supposed to get nearly anything 72 hours out. i mean that way your forecast could bust a little bit but it could be relatively overlooked given that a couple days prior it would have taken a huge model bust to get that foot.

Spare me the fooking lectures, dude; it's my prerogative to set my expectations where I see fit and the FACT of the matter is that that system was an anomaly in that the precip field shredded to sh** so readily.

Will would tell you the same thing.

Now, has this been a "good" winter, so far looking at it objectively....yes.