Harry Perry Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I mean, I guess that's how severe weather works though, right? ... Hit or miss, mostly miss. It's not as if there was no action region wide so you can't really call it a bust Yeah, definitely not a bust... More of an isolated-pulse type event that usually you would see in a upper level low set-up. You win some and you lose some is the way I look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 If someone would have told me 3 days ago that we wouldn’t see severe weather around here, I would have laughed and told them they’re crazy. Now, I’m looking at myself in the mirror thinking, “wow, I’m crazy”. 3 days with 3-4 separate severe weather chances… And slipped by with NOTHING? I don’t know if I should look at that as lucky because I’ve been working outside, or not lucky because I love storms. Put simply, it's not the 50s-70s anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 If someone would have told me 3 days ago that we wouldn’t see severe weather around here, I would have laughed and told them they’re crazy. Now, I’m looking at myself in the mirror thinking, “wow, I’m crazy”. 3 days with 3-4 separate severe weather chances… And slipped by with NOTHING? I don’t know if I should look at that as lucky because I’ve been working outside, or not lucky because I love storms. Aren't you still in Battle Creek? The other Harry in Battle Creek said you guys did get a little something yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Some more severe today in Ontario. Powerful QLCS came through around 1-3pm. Southern-most cell on the line had a rotating wall cloud at one point, and a beautiful emerald green rain/hail core which I accidentally drove into haha. Luckily only dime size hail so no damage to the car. Fun chase again, managed a few nice pics and timelapses but nothing too too spectacular. Plenty of severe wind reports (in one case 15 power poles down, landing on motorists), and some flash flooding across S. Ontario. Looks like we're in for round 3 tomorrow with the 30% extending into Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 There were two confirmed tornado reports with the squall line, after 2AM Eastern, in Indiana. Check yesterday's severe reports. Weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 There were two confirmed tornado reports with the squall line, after 2AM Eastern, in Indiana. Check yesterday's severe reports. Weird! ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR NORTH SALEM IN HENDRICKS COUNTY INDIANA... LOCATION...NORTH SALEM IN HENDRICKS COUNTY INDIANA DATE...MAY 21 2013 ESTIMATED TIME...240 AM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH. * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS IN HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR NORTH SALEM IN HENDRICKS COUNTY INDIANA ON MAY 21 2013. THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS BRIEF AS A HOME...TREES AN A BARN WERE DAMAGED. ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ROACHDALE IN PUTNAMVILLE COUNTY INDIANA... LOCATION...ROACHDALE IN PUTNAMVILLE COUNTY INDIANA DATE...MAY 21 2013 ESTIMATED TIME...230 AM EDT MAXIMUM EF- SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH PATH LENGTH...LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS IN HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR ROACHDALE IN PUTNAMVILLE COUNTY INDIANA ON MAY 21 2013. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3 MILES EAST OF ROACHDALE...DAMAGING TREES AND A BARN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 RAP pretty much squanders any chance at severe wx in MI tomorrow with extensive shower coverage throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 RAP pretty much squanders any chance at severe wx in MI tomorrow with extensive shower coverage throughout the day Ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 RAP pretty much squanders any chance at severe wx in MI tomorrow with extensive shower coverage throughout the day RAP has been pretty much useless throughout this entire event, I would be careful about using it. That being said, I am not too confident about severe tomorrow, we will need some sunshine and I am just not expecting a whole lot. Of course now that I say this it will be sunny all morning long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 RAP has been pretty much useless throughout this entire event, I would be careful about using it. That being said, I am not too confident about severe tomorrow, we will need some sunshine and I am just not expecting a whole lot. Of course now that I say this it will be sunny all morning long Elevated convection already ramping up to our SW though. I personally can't believe we're in the 30%, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Some more severe today in Ontario. Powerful QLCS came through around 1-3pm. Southern-most cell on the line had a rotating wall cloud at one point, and a beautiful emerald green rain/hail core which I accidentally drove into haha. Luckily only dime size hail so no damage to the car. Fun chase again, managed a few nice pics and timelapses but nothing too too spectacular. Plenty of severe wind reports (in one case 15 power poles down, landing on motorists), and some flash flooding across S. Ontario. Looks like we're in for round 3 tomorrow with the 30% extending into Ontario. Interesting, I was looking at that QLCS on radar and that southern cell you mentioned did have what I thought was a hook on it (hard to see) for one "scan" and then disappeared. Where did you hear about that rotating wall cloud and where? Nothing for me...again. Just a tiny cell formed on top and gave some drops of rain. Attempt #3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Elevated convection already ramping up to our SW though. I personally can't believe we're in the 30%, but what do I know. I dunno. I really dont buy that we're gonna be socked in with as much clouds and precip as the RAP seems to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 I dunno. I really dont buy that we're gonna be socked in with as much clouds and precip as the RAP seems to show. That was supposed to be from the leftover storms that never formed. I personally believe tomorrow will be huge, no convection, sun, perfect positioning with the LLJ and possibly up to 60 knots. Not to mention dews that may approach 70, I would say to borrow a line from Django, tomorrow has my curiosity and now it has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Aren't you still in Battle Creek? The other Harry in Battle Creek said you guys did get a little something yesterday evening. He is just to the se of Battle Creek. Storm pretty much hit downtown on north/ne from the ssw/sw side of town. Not sure if he got much of anything from it? Very possible he only got a light shower or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 That was supposed to be from the leftover storms that never formed. I personally believe tomorrow will be huge, no convection, sun, perfect positioning with the LLJ and possibly up to 60 knots. Not to mention dews that may approach 70, I would say to borrow a line from Django, tomorrow has my curiosity and now it has my attention Local mets here are saying the same here about getting enough sun being the key and possibly being too cloudy to destabilize. I agree with you that the lack of storms today could mean something big tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Local mets here are saying the same here about getting enough sun being the key and possibly being too cloudy to destabilize. I agree with you that the lack of storms today could mean something big tomorrow. Really looks like a multi round day here in Toledo. Would not be shocked to see a few tornado warnings early on. Thinking about driving out to Archbold or Delta after work and camping out waiting for storms. Like I said, I'm expecting a lot tomorrow especially here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 New day 1 sounds like we have a fun day ahead. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY... A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI WITH A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F EXTENDING NWD FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z AT ROCHESTER NY...COLUMBUS OH AND LEXINGTON KY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 750 TO 1250 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST FROM LAKE ERIE SWD ACROSS MUCH OF OH ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS. LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS BUT THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 412 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013 . SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. && . NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SOMEWHAT-DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTH OF THE LOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ILN CWA BY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS TOUGH TO PICK OUT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS...BUT IS A BIT MORE EVIDENT WHEN EXAMINING THETA-E SLIGHTLY ALOFT...AND ALSO LOOKING FOR SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN ITS MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA AND MICHIGAN. IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET...THE SETUP OVER OHIO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE-SCALE LIFT. THE STANDARD SUITE OF MODELS (GFS/NAM/CMC/ECMWF) HAS THUS FAR APPEARED MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THIS IS ADMITTEDLY A REGION WHERE LIFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THROUGH MORNING...IN A REGION OF FALLING HEIGHTS AND A 30-40 KNOT LLJ. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE CURRENT TENNESSEE CONVECTION ARE ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT THE AIR MASS COULD NOT BE DESCRIBED AS PARTICULARLY DRY. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THE HRRR HAS THE CLOSEST APPROXIMATION TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. SEVERAL OTHER CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR REALISTIC GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE ILN CWA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIANCE IN THE HANDLING OF THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION...AND THE FACT THAT THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN CONVECTIVE FORECASTING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS TOUGH TO TRUST ANY OF THE SPECIFIC QPF/SIM-RADAR DEPICTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TO BEGIN WITH THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE IN QUESTION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN PRECIPITATION IN SOME PLACES...THE SURFACE TEMP FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE...MLCAPE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 1000 J/KG...WITH THE MOST INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST...INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN LESS (500 J/KG OR SO). SOUNDINGS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH THEIR DEPTH...WITH RATHER LOW LCL HEIGHTS (AROUND 2000-3000 FEET AGL) FORECAST ON THE GFS/NAM (THE RAP13 APPEARS A BIT DRIER). BECAUSE OF THE MOIST CONDITIONS...THE CAPE PROFILE IS NARROW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE OVERALL FORCING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EVEN IF INSTABILITY IS WEAK. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO SOMEWHAT OF A STRENGTH FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL-TO-MODEL ASSESSMENT ON SHEAR VALUES IS NOT IN AS GOOD OF CONSENSUS AS IS USUALLY THE CASE. MOST OF THE SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL (ALL IN THE TOP-RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE HODOGRAPH)...BUT WITH A DECENT CHANGE IN SPEED. 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...WITH 15-25 KNOTS IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. 0-3KM SRH VALUES WILL GET INTO THE 100-200 RANGE...SO THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OR AREAS OF BACKING SURFACE WINDS (PERHAPS FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW). THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS OUTSIDE OF A STRONGER / ROTATING UPDRAFT). THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND TORNADOES DOES APPEAR TO EXIST...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO LIMIT THIS FROM BEING A HIGHER-END SEVERE EVENT. A CLOUDIER/GRUNGIER MORNING WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE A BIT OF ROTATION. THE OUTSIDE SHOT FOR TODAY WOULD BE A GREATER DEAL OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION (BETWEEN INSOLATION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION)...WHICH WOULD BRING A GREATER RISK OF ALL THE SEVERE MODES COMING TO THE TABLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE EVIDENCE...THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION. THE HWO WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH A RELATIVELY TYPICAL-SOUNDING SEVERE THREAT WORDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Current Satellite Image. It's a wrap, onto the next event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 SE Michigan got totally left out on this one... Rain included, just dry as a bone outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 SE Michigan got totally left out on this one... Rain included, just dry as a bone outside. There's rain covering literally half of SEMI right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 There's rain covering literally half of SEMI right now Obviously it is invisible to some lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Clearing out nicely here in Dayton....wondering how long that will last with more clouds off to the west. Instability still the biggest ?. Wouldn't mind chasing today, but I'm not a fan of chasing linear stuff. Will watch for outflow boundaries & other mesoscale features, but I'm leaning towards sitting this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 There's rain covering literally half of SEMI right now I'm pretty sure he's referring to the soaking downpours. Much of Metro Detroit has missed out on that, aside from the very isolated stuff yesterday and Monday. Most of the general public in the Detroit area would likely agree. I drove in some of that "rain" this morning. Nothing more than sprinkles than dampen the ground from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 There's rain covering literally half of SEMI right now I'm pretty sure he's referring to the soaking downpours. Much of Metro Detroit has missed out on that, aside from the very isolated stuff yesterday and Monday. Most of the general public in the Detroit area would likely agree. I drove in some of that "rain" this morning. Nothing more than sprinkles than dampen the ground from what I saw. Summer rainstorms amounting to less than 0.10 inches of rain is a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Summer rainstorms amounting to less than 0.10 inches of rain is a non event. this. This outside is just glorified sprinkles. It's barely getting the pavement wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Summer rainstorms amounting to less than 0.10 inches of rain is a non event. Yeah but if you call that "dry as a bone" then you have some weird bone disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Yeah but if you call that "dry as a bone" then you have some weird bone disease. Or you are a kid who doesn't know what an idiom is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 jonger is a treasure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Clearing out nicely here in Dayton....wondering how long that will last with more clouds off to the west. Instability still the biggest ?. Wouldn't mind chasing today, but I'm not a fan of chasing linear stuff. Will watch for outflow boundaries & other mesoscale features, but I'm leaning towards sitting this one out. SPC added 30% prob risk to the eastern half of OH on the 1300z OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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