Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The eye continues to warm while surrounded by -80 tops, awesome or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 The eye continues to warm while surrounded by -80 tops, awesome or what? It's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Can you imagine the surf on the southern part of Taiwan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Looks like we are < 12 hours away from ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Looks like we are < 12 hours away from ERC Yeah, looks like the very early stages of an ERC beginning to come together. It still potentially has a couple more hours to intensify as the outer rainband has not yet fully encompassed the inner eyewall. I'm still impressed at how a circulation that a couple of days ago was larger than the entire Gulf of Mexico was able to produce such a tight core. (Then again Wilma was perhaps an even more dramatic example as it had an even smaller RMW than Usagi, but I digress). This should bring tingles to even the tightest of tight core snobs (Josh, I'm looking at you ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 That's a pretty awesome MW. That core just looks awesome. The cyclone is huge but the core is so nicely compact. I imagine that will change with the impending ERC, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Max gusts to 196 mph or so will ruin your weekend. That is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 So that's what a real hurricane looks like again.. been so long in the Atlantic I forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Usagi, by the time it makes landfall, will most likely have more ACE by itself then all of the Atlantic basin this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 What are the max sustained wind speeds within that and gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Usagi looks awesome. Curious, for a storm whose name means "rabbit". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 What are the max sustained wind speeds within that and gusts? JTWC hasn't given an update since 12Z, but at 12Z it was 140 kt (1 min sustained) with gusts to 170 kt. JMA has an 18Z update with 110 kt (10 min sustained) and gusts to 155 kt, 910 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Latest CIMSS ADT is T#6.8, 135 kt, 919 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 2013SEP19 203200 7.5 898.6 155.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Still looks pretty good, but the outer core is not as impressive as early this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Microwave pass from about two hours ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Still looks amazingly hawt-- especially to these Atlantic-weary eyes. It's been five years or more since we've had anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 holy smokes, what a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The euro track is crazy, basically throws it right into Hong Kong and not significantly weaker ether - GFS also places it near Hong Kong but it interacts with Taiwan and its mountains much more and is therefore significantly weaker. With a storm like this it will come down to how much it wobbles north and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 yep the slight wobbles will be key in if it can maintain its intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 yep the slight wobbles will be key in if it can maintain its intensity OMG. Hopefully we can get a monster like this in the Atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 yep the slight wobbles will be key in if it can maintain its intensity ERC maybe causing the wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 i would think the casinos in Macau are made quite solidly from what looks like a cat-2 or cat-3 hit. but looking a bit further back near Guam, most of the models are making that big area into some type of decent typhoon that eventually makes its way east of Japan with help of a large trough coming out of Asia. how big will that one be in Umagi's wake? or do we want to even speculate on that one yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 ERC in progress: Double Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I don't know why people think a Cat 2 or 3 in Hong Kong would be NBD. I know there are modern office buildings on the main island, but at least back in the day, in the mid 1980s they were apartment buildings that didn't look super-well contructed, not to mention a subway system ( I have a thing about subways, riding between Jim ShaChooey (spelling almost certainly wrong) and the island was a treat). Like saying NYC would be fine in a Cat 3 hurricane because the modern skyscrapers in Manhattan were designed to survive 100 knot winds. Edit: Tsim Sha Tsui Master of the Google Fu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Usagi might be replacing its eyewall, but looking at conventional IR, I don't think that will knock it down all that much. May spread the RMW more than it lowers peak winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 The eye is now appearing on Taiwan radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I don't know why people think a Cat 2 or 3 in Hong Kong would be NBD. I know there are modern office buildings on the main island, but at least back in the day, in the mid 1980s they were apartment buildings that didn't look super-well contructed, not to mention a subway system ( I have a thing about subways, riding between Jim ShaChooey (spelling almost certainly wrong) and the island was a treat). Like saying NYC would be fine in a Cat 3 hurricane because the modern skyscrapers in Manhattan were designed to survive 100 knot winds. Edit: Tsim Sha Tsui Master of the Google Fu... I am mainly concerned about the rain from this one. Most of the population is on the west side of the island so downsloping should limit the rain to 5-10". It would be much worse if a storm passed on the north side of the island, that may put 20-30" totals in the populated areas and no city on this planet (except maybe Machu Picchu) is well constructed for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I am mainly concerned about the rain from this one. Most of the population is on the west side of the island so downsloping should limit the rain to 5-10". It would be much worse if a storm passed on the north side of the island, that may put 20-30" totals in the populated areas and no city on this planet (except maybe Machu Picchu) is well constructed for that. The current GFS/Euro as well as JTWC/JMA tracks all bring Usagi just north of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Eye is warming again and -80C tops building in the west and south sections of the eyewall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.