TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 For Pewa since it should be entering soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Pawa is starting to look like a potential Ioke wannabe... which by the way was the coolest TC of 2006 despite not being a threat to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 It was so kind of those Commie laborers to throw tin in front of the camera to heighten the drama. Just kidding. It's great footage-- I greatly enjoyed it. Like many, I'm aghast at the stupidity of the people on the street. While I think we can all agree that the extreme Red Alert lockdowns in Western Australia are way over the top, this behavior in China is ridiculous to the other extreme. There's a basic lack of common sense here. Do these people also put their hands on hot stoves and drink floor polish? Haha glad you enjoyed it Josh. Yeah it was really quite surreal to see so many people out in such dangerous conditions, it certainly made for some interesting shots. I see Pewa could be tapping into some of the Wpac magic and become a good ACE maker, we still have some catching up to do. Closer to home TS Trami has just formed (not sure what to make of that name...) and could threaten Taiwan as a low end typhoon next week. There are some specific flood shots I'm after in northern Taiwan so I may well be going after Trami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 Here's the seminal paper on this type of genesis: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/mjd/papers/MRGsubmit.pdf great, thanks! -------------------------------- anyway, i wonder if there's a name/explanation for this feature: i always see it in strong convection; it's can't be the eye. and it looks like the LLCC is still displaced to the northeast... very interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 great, thanks! -------------------------------- anyway, i wonder if there's a name/explanation for this feature: [image] i always see it in strong convection; it's can't be the eye. and it looks like the LLCC is still displaced to the northeast... very interesting though Looks like an enhanced v signature. Sign of strong updrafts: http://profhorn.aos.wisc.edu/wxwise/AckermanKnox/chap11/enhanced_v.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Pinhole eye alert on Pewa: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Pewa is now a cute microcane, and according to the GFS a potential Ioke wannabe, as Phil said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Should be interesting to see the binary interaction between Pewa and newly named Unala. Pewa is obviously the much stronger system, and the vortex capture process of Unala might help to make Pewa larger, as suggested by the GFS. The ECMWF is showing a very interesting interaction with the upper level low upstream, which could further enlarge the circulation of Pewa. This could be one of those cases that a very small TC becomes a very large TC over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Well.....that was awesome I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Ahh the rapid rise and fall of microcanes. Score so far ECMWF: 1 GFS: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Some more Chinacane madness footage, this time from a large dam in Taiwan I was filming this morning. Over 600mm of rain made for a spectacular scene! Josh will find this HAWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 Some more Chinacane madness footage, this time from a large dam in Taiwan I was filming this morning. Over 600mm of rain made for a spectacular scene! Josh will find this HAWT Hush. For a water event, I have to say, it's pretty intense! I'll give ya that much. Too bad you didn't try to navigate that torrent in a blow-up boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 TS Toraji taking on that 'passing the latitude of Hatteras' look at a rather Southerly latitude, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Pervert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 More extreme HAWTNESS from GFS at the moment but in general there is a big model split. Chasing wise I'd prefer the GFS southern solution over a Japanese home islands hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 So what are folks thinking about the model evolution for 17W and potential threat to Taiwan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 So what are folks thinking about the model evolution for 17W and potential threat to Taiwan? Tropical storm Usagi now, the formation of this system was handled excellently by the models over the last few days. It looks like the 12z - 00z runs have jogged north slightly suggesting greater chances of an impact on Taiwan. ECMWF was previously the southern most outlier and it jogged north for a Taiwan hit in 12z, 00z will roll soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 GFS still clobbers Taiwan. Here's the JTWC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Models and tracks have swung south somewhat but until Usagi gets its butt moving there will still be a large amount of uncertainty. My current thinking is this will miss Taiwan. Right now ECMWF in recent 00z is painting a rather interesting picture for my neck of the woods 96hrs out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Models and tracks have swung south somewhat but until Usagi gets its butt moving there will still be a large amount of uncertainty. My current thinking is this will miss Taiwan. Right now ECMWF in recent 00z is painting a rather interesting picture for my neck of the woods 96hrs out... Yeah, I would say that is interesting, LOL! It's looking increasingly better organized right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Wow-- that core really consolidated. It looked so big and loose yesterday, I didn't expect it to tighten up so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Wow-- that core really consolidated. It looked so big and loose yesterday, I didn't expect it to tighten up so fast. I did it's September in the Philippines Sea, models were spot on too with rapid consolidation! Now the big question is where to intercept this damn thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I did it's September in the Philippines Sea, models were spot on too with rapid consolidation! Now the big question is where to intercept this damn thing... Glad I don't have to make that choice! (Given that burned my hand on the chasing stove this week, I'm still lickin' my wounds.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 seems like JTWC is underestimating with a 90-kt sustained on their current warning and "only" a 115-kt peak intensity... (?) eye continues to clear out and shear remains manageable and OHC is still high; could probably become a cat-4 in the next 24 hours, no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 seems like JTWC is underestimating with a 90-kt sustained on their current warning and "only" a 115-kt peak intensity... (?) eye continues to clear out and shear remains manageable and OHC is still high; could probably become a cat-4 in the next 24 hours, no?? ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 19 SEP 2013 Time : 033000 UTC Lat : 17:23:02 N Lon : 128:06:29 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.3 / 957.3mb/ 97.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.9 5.4 6.2 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km Center Temp : -40.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.1C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Looks awfully close to Cat five status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 12z JTWC putting Usagi at 140-kt... first Cat 5 of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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