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meh, looks like a substantial weakening happening before landfall...

 

 

The rather sudden weakening of the last couple of hours may be land interaction, descending air off the mountains.  I have never been on that side of Luzon, but I got the impression there were big mountains down the middle of the island.

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The rather sudden weakening of the last couple of hours may be land interaction, descending air off the mountains.  I have never been on that side of Luzon, but I got the impression there were big mountains down the middle of the island.

 

yeah that could be a factor too; some saying ERC... maybe i was just expecting a Megi-type of landfall considering she hit near where Utor is right now... :snowwindow:

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Yeah, it really started to look like crap in those final hours.  Those pinhole-eye structures are always really delicate.

 

Despite the apparent collapse on IR imagery, I'm sure it was very severe on the ground.  I know from past experience that IR is deceiving: storms like Jimena 2009 and Jova 2011 were very robust on the ground, despite rather mushy IR presentations.

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Yeah, it really started to look like crap in those final hours.  Those pinhole-eye structures are always really delicate.

 

Despite the apparent collapse on IR imagery, I'm sure it was very severe on the ground.  I know from past experience that IR is deceiving: storms like Jimena 2009 and Jova 2011 were very robust on the ground, despite rather mushy IR presentations.

 

Yeah, wind often lags IR appearance, both with respect to strengthening and weakening. 

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yeah that could be a factor too; some saying ERC... maybe i was just expecting a Megi-type of landfall considering she hit near where Utor is right now... :snowwindow:

 

 

ERC was my guess

 

 

Radar/MW data seems to confirm that the weakening was induced by an ERC (not surprising given the delicate stability of pinhole eyes).

 

 

Yep:

 

Before (near max intensity)

20130811.0719.trmm.x.tmi_85h_1deg.11WUTO

 

After (obvious ERC has commenced)

20130811.1206.f18.x.91h_1deg.11WUTOR.130

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still looked pretty good at landfall though... a weather station roughly 20mi northwest of landfall point reported min pressure of 952hPa; hasn't been reporting in about 45mins now so i figure it's gone offline..

 

15i6ueg.jpg

 

here's another look at the landfall; using a radar well to the north (Aparri)..

 

5xmja1.png

 

go here for the latest radar images for Northern Luzon... unfortunately, it looks like Baguio has gone offline

 

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tuguegarao/weather/radar-images

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I'll head crossing the border and heading west up the coast of Guangdong this evening to give a shot at intercepting Utor. It's consolidate impressively since exiting Luzon and should be a rather solid hit. JTWC have it at 100kts right now with peak of 115kts expected. Landfall forecasted around 110kts. This truly is a Chinacane  :rambo:

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I'll head crossing the border and heading west up the coast of Guangdong this evening to give a shot at intercepting Utor. It's consolidate impressively since exiting Luzon and should be a rather solid hit. JTWC have it at 100kts right now with peak of 115kts expected. Landfall forecasted around 110kts. This truly is a Chinacane  :rambo:

 

Those Commie police will throw you in the slammer for carryin' a videocam around.  Say hi to Dear Leader.  (Oh, wait, that's the other Commie country. Sorry.)

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Didn't Ferdinand Marcos once take credit for directing a typhoon away from the Philippines?

 

Lolz. I didn't know that.  He and Imelda were such '80s icons.

 

I think Jerry Falwell prayed Hurricane Gloria away from the Carolinas and towards the heathens of Long Island.

 

Totally remember that.  He prayed it away from Virginia Beach, I think.  And Long Islanders who received the full force of it were like, "Thanks, azzhole!"

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Reading the latest JTWC advisory for TY Utor, they were referencing radar data from Yangjiang, China. I didn't even know China had weather radar, I've never seen it on the internet.

 

they actually have a pretty good network... here's Yangjiang:

 

9fuwqd.gif

 

and here's the rest:

 

http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/product_ld.shtml

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Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage  :lmao:

 

http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw

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Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage  :lmao:

 

http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw

 

wow at all the people trying to walk / drive via mopeds. Its like they had no clue a Typhoon was bearing down on them. I'm also stunned by the amount of people driving on the roads. 

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While certainly not all that interesting from a sensible weather point of view, the models are showing something meteorologically cool for next week. A mixed Rossby-gravity wave emanating from TD 11 is modeled to enhance convection near Taiwan and both the Euro and GFS to varying degrees show a TC possibly forming from it. It's not terribly uncommon for these type of genesis events to occur in the West Pac, but I think modeling it 7 days out probably is pretty rare.

 

could you maybe shed more light on this (or maybe direct a link that could do so).. it does look like you (or the models) are on to something here with two invests that are mildly interesting...:)

 

1ftf74.jpg

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Just got home after chasing Utor. It was a real butt kicker of a cat 1 with a real nasty sting in its tail. We were positioned perfect on in Zhapo, SW of Yangjiang city. We were originally expecting to get the front right quad however Utor jogged to the right a little exposing us to what turned out to be strongest part of the eyewall, the SW quadrant. We were right in the middle of the eye for about 1.5 hours. The eye was misty like Sanba in Okinawa last year. Shot some pretty crazy Chinacane footage  :lmao:

 

http://youtu.be/RTJeHwsVDiw

 

It was so kind of those Commie laborers to throw tin in front of the camera to heighten the drama.

 

Just kidding.   :D

 

It's great footage-- I greatly enjoyed it.  

 

Like many, I'm aghast at the stupidity of the people on the street.  While I think we can all agree that the extreme Red Alert lockdowns in Western Australia are way over the top, this behavior in China is ridiculous to the other extreme.  There's a basic lack of common sense here.  Do these people also put their hands on hot stoves and drink floor polish?

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