patrick05 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Nope, that was the Cat 5 that devastated Mindanao. i mixed up my "B"s lol... typhoon bolaven... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Looks like landfall might be a handful of hours away with the current track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Looks like landfall might be a handful of hours away with the current track it was nice to track a actual major hurricane, even if it was in pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 it was nice to track a actual major hurricane, even if it was in pacific. Agreed, it was fun for me too. Hopefully the people in the area are prepared since the center looks to be going further north than the models had forecasted just earlier today. - Shantou might get some serious serge if it makes landfall just to the south and over 13 million live in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 i mixed up my "B"s lol... typhoon bolaven... Yep, that's the one-- thanks, Patrick. James chased it and got in the eye. He said the winds were kind of blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Agreed, it was fun for me too. Hopefully the people in the area are prepared since the center looks to be going further north than the models had forecasted just earlier today. - Shantou might get some serious serge if it makes landfall just to the south and over 13 million live in the area Yep-- agreed! I just researched that area, and this cluster of cities-- called Chaoshan-- has almost 14 million people and looks to be right in the crosshairs. This is kind of serious, because the faster, earlier landfall also means it's going to come ashore a little stronger than expected-- probably a really solid Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Well it's bound to hit some highly populated center making landfall in this area, the PRD and surrounding region is one of the most densely populated in China/on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Usagi is definitely hitting a populated area. I put the latest color imagery on top of a GE satellite image. The city of Shantou should be experiencing quite a surge from this. To get your bearings - Taiwan is far right and Hong Kong is far left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Usagi is definitely hitting a populated area. I put the latest color imagery on top of a GE satellite image. The city of Shantou should be experiencing quite a surge from this. To get your bearings - Taiwan is far right and Hong Kong is far left. Cool map! If it continues its NW heading, that's going to be a really serious impact, with strong onshore flow in an extremely-densely-populated region. And, like I said, the earlier landfall means it will be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Landfall is going to be in the next 2 hr near Jiazi or Hudong Harbor (~22.8N 116.0E), a tad W of the Chaoshan metro region. Latest JTWC warning puts it at 95 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Radar and satellite imagery indicate that Typhoon USAGI's pinhole eye is now crossing the China coast, near Hudong Harbor, just E of Jieshizhen (~22.8N 115.9E). The JTWC puts the intensity at 95 knots (110 mph)-- a strong Cat 2 on the scale we use in the Atlantic. The is a densely-populated region and millions of people are now experiencing dangerous hurricane conditions. Contrary to expectation, the cyclone's core completely missed Hong Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 95kt gust recorded in Huilai (about 20mi sw of Shantou)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Did Typhoon Hunter head east to get into the core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Hong Kong now in under some of the coldest cloud tops. Usagi still looks very symmetrical. Satellite overlay at the time of landfall. Landfall just right of the typhoon symbol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Landfall just right of the typhoon symbol. I cross-referenced two radars, visible, and IR imagery, and I had it a little E of there (see above). I know the JTWC said Shanwei, but that's just not what I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Did Typhoon Hunter head east to get into the core?He stayed put in Hong Kong. He actually has a multi-use visa that allows him to go in and out of China at will, but he was exhausted from the Taiwan portion of the chase, and also he wanted to see the effects in his hometown.Speaking of Hong Kong... As Geos suggested, it looks like the core passed close to them earlier, and it was fairly intact, so they probably got some decent conditions, despite it being inland and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 He stayed put in Hong Kong. He actually has a multi-use visa that allows him to go in and out of China at will, but he was exhausted from the Taiwan portion of the chase, and also he wanted to see the effects in his hometown. Speaking of Hong Kong... As Geos suggested, it looks like the core passed close to them earlier, and it was fairly intact, so they probably got some decent conditions, despite it being inland and weakening. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXhxcqtBNis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXhxcqtBNis Ha ha ha, that's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 He stayed put in Hong Kong. He actually has a multi-use visa that allows him to go in and out of China at will, but he was exhausted from the Taiwan portion of the chase, and also he wanted to see the effects in his hometown. Speaking of Hong Kong... As Geos suggested, it looks like the core passed close to them earlier, and it was fairly intact, so they probably got some decent conditions, despite it being inland and weakening. That is understandable. I was hoping to see a little 90 knot eyewall action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 That is understandable. I was hoping to see a little 90 knot eyewall action Me, too-- I'll bet it was pretty hawt in those cities near the landfall point. I asked him about it-- I was like, "Ya know, it'll come ashore not that far from you..." But I totally, totally know how annoying it can be to have someone back-seat chase from 5,000 miles away, so I just hushed up. I get his decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 I cross-referenced two radars, visible, and IR imagery, and I had it a little E of there (see above). I know the JTWC said Shanwei, but that's just not what I got. Yeah I see it was on that peninsula near the town of Dishuican. Then the eye headed into that bay south of Lufeng. Pretty cool video! haha Edit: Now if we can get some Atlantic action to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 22, 2013 Share Posted September 22, 2013 Yeah I see it was on that peninsula near the town of Dishuican. Then the eye headed into that bay south of Lufeng. Yep-- totally. The landfall point I worked out (~22.8N 115.9E) is right at that town. I'm not sure I'm right, but that's what I came up with. Either way, I like those overlay maps you made-- pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted September 23, 2013 Share Posted September 23, 2013 Haha thanks Josh for updating here! It's been a full on 3 day mad chase across east Asia to try and document Usagi as best as possible. On Thursday we purchased tickets to get to Basco island early Friday morning between Luzon and Taiwan. However we were concerned the flight might be cancelled and model guidance had it passing north of there so we bailed on that plan. The Basco flight was indeed cancelled in the end so we made right call.Instead we (Jim Edds and I) decided to have a crack at the cat 5 wave action in extreme south of Taiwan. Flew to Taipei early Friday and drove 6 hours south to Kenting and holed up there for night. Saturday morning winds were really starting to howl and we started working the coast, found a small fishing harbour exposed to east and it was getting hammered by surge. Filmed fishing boats getting destroyed and we ended up have to pluck a fisherman out of the water as he was getting swept away! It made for pretty crazy video. We then bailed on the storm far earlier than I usually would and raced north to get back to Taipei for a flight back to Hong Kong, since at that time tracks were looking good for a big hit here. We made it back exhausted and prepared ourselves for round 2. Obviously it ended up hitting way up the coast. We wouldn't have had to to make the sudden relocation (organizing a car etc out of Shenzhen would have taken a while) so just decided to drink tea and work the storm in my back yard! This was my 3rd encounter with a typhoon Usagi, I filmed 2007's version in S Japan. Despite not getting into the eyewall Jim and I achieved everything we set out to do in Taiwan which was to capture the surge and waves and their effect on the local population there. Time for a beer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Pabuk seems to be somewhat annular. CAT2 now. This would not be news if the Atlantic didn't suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Oh just want to add one more interesting useless fact. This: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 that would be nuts but wont happen Oh just want to add one more interesting useless fact. This: gfs180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 New TC in the SCS, named Wutip, forecast to strike Vietnam in a few days. JTWC assesses the intensity at 45 kt at 18Z, 55 kt at 0Z. Still probably a bit too low though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Looks pretty hawt, actually! The GFS has been spinning it up pretty nicely. Agreed that the JTWC seems a little conservative with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The outflow of Wutip seems to be a bit impeded on the SE side. Other than that it's a healthy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Water vapor of Wutip Looks like a pretty tight eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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