Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 Wipha is going to be a monster sized Typhoon dwarfing Phailn in shear bulk but not as intense. A near threat to Japan as modeling has trended west, close to becoming a real threat. at sea IKE during max intensity rivals Katrina for sure. Luckily it appears it will decrease significantly in intensity before it threatens Japan. Definitely something to watch. Down the long road this becomes an Alaskan winter storm in the Bering sea. Attached is the IKE potential versus Katrina , much more impressive than Phailin was bulk wise. Also the Euro and GFS model progs. wipha.JPG katrina.JPG gfs_asia_090_1000_500_thick.gif Wind3285032and32mslp_Asia_96.gif Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_216.gif Sam OK Powdah has a great thread on the implications down stream for this forecasted monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 12z Euro rakes Japan Tuesday night with torrential rains and winds . 956 LF over Bosa Peniusula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 what a huge system! an eye is starting to form, it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 12z Euro rakes Japan Tuesday night with torrential rains and winds . 956 LF over Bosa Peniusula That would not be good having Wipha heading right into Tokyo Bay! A lot of that land next to the bay is man-made fill. That bay is pretty shallow too < 70ft generally. Incredible sat shot above^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Wipha a cat3 now, time sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Wipha a cat3 now, time sensitive. Up to 115 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 12z GFS a little further northwest it's a partial hit for Tokyo at minimum. About 100 miles northwest and it would really be in a good spot to funnel water up Tokyo bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 IKE is the best indicator of Hurricane strength, Phalin comparisons to Katrina were unwarranted, Wipha is however a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 IKE is the best indicator of Hurricane strength, Phalin comparisons to Katrina were unwarranted, Wipha is however a beastHuh? Sandy beat out Katrina in that aspect! Wipha is nice but Phailin was obviously stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Huh? Sandy beat out Katrina in that aspect! Wipha is nice but Phailin was obviously stronger. I should have clarified, not an indicator of wind speed but rather over all destructive potential from all the various aspects. Phalin as shown by surge and destructive reports from India was more on par with Rita and yes Sandy was impressive in IKE and proved that at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 another case of large typhoon sucking in dry air?? i think the 115kt by JTWC is too strong now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 12z EURO Shows this beast heading right up Tokyo Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Yea Geos 18 Z GFS very similar with a 956 raking the area, Japan Met agency has this posted today, probably with JTWC will bump west a little Interestingly with ET transition they both really rake Sapporo region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Yea Geos 18 Z GFS very similar with a 956 raking the area, Japan Met agency has this posted today, probably with JTWC will bump west a little Interestingly with ET transition they both really rake Sapporo region. From what I can see the center might just skirt central Honshu. Any further westward jog will not be good for Tokyo metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 From what I can see the center might just skirt central Honshu. Any further westward jog will not be good for Tokyo metro. as expected JTWC bumped west just East of Tokyo, 06 GFS runs it smack into Tokyo Bay, same with Euro, looks like Cat 1 conditions expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Geos, track up Tokyo Bay? This should be getting more attention soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 18ZGFS pounds Tokyo and all of Eastern Japan pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 Geos, track up Tokyo Bay? This should be getting more attention soon. I'm just getting around to looking at tracks. 12z EURO That really rakes the Tokyo metro. 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 we have to hope it will weaken much more than projected before the eastern coast or track farther out to sea; an electricity outage at Fukushima would be very dangerous. March 20 2013 article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 14, 2013 Share Posted October 14, 2013 we have to hope it will weaken much more than projected before the eastern coast or track farther out to sea; an electricity outage at Fukushima would be very dangerous. March 20 2013 article Yeah definitely. That didn't dawn on me until you mentioned it. It's a beast. Very nice outflow gotta say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 The Mods need to do some pinning unpinning here. Looks like a big deal now. JTWC now brings this up Tokyo Bay 75 Knots gusting to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 meanwhile, Typhoon Nari made landfall near the city of Da Nang... highest sustained from the airport was 45kt and the highest gust was 70kt; not too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 The Mods need to do some pinning unpinning here. Looks like a big deal now. JTWC now brings this up Tokyo Bay 75 Knots gusting to 90 I second that. 0z GFS on the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 ECMWF forecasting the formation of another tropical cyclone in the vicinity of Guam in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 This should be where Wipha is just a little while. 0Z EURO Anyone know of any good web cams along the central Japan Coast? Landfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Found a web cam in Tokyo. Still dark right now. http://earthcam.com/japan/tokyo/ http://earthsky.org/earth/typhoon-wipha-strikes-japans-east-coast#.Ul1qIf2bx_8.twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 By looking at what the winds are doing, it seems the center will stay offshore. It's a gloomy, wet day in Tokyo, but doesn't look like a worse case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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