Amped Posted October 18, 2013 Share Posted October 18, 2013 Interestingly the GFS says capture this time, and the Euro says escape. It's the opposite of Sandy in a similar setup just halfway around the world. I'm siding with capture but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KTWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLYRADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTVECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS---24 HRS, VALID AT:191800Z --- 18.1N 138.4EMAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KTWIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLYRADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANTRADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Models are really deluging Japan now and also develop intense PRE. going to be a news maker for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 140kt estimated 921mb. After a slow start, I'd say the wpac has been back to it's good ole self in the last month. Euro and GFS still in a battle over the Japan impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 NPP/VIIRS overhead shot <- amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Francisco is going to have more ACE than the entire North Atlantic season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The tracks from the EURO and GFS are pretty different. GFS is closer to a worse case scenario with more wind and dumping rains, EURO has heavy rains, but not a direct impact. Okinawa feels the full brunt of Francisco. Doesn't curve away until it gets close to the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Francisco a solid CAT 4 at 145mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The 00z Euro now makes landfall while the GFS stays south of the mainland. Almost a role switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I'm not a certified meteorologist or anything, but I think I'm going to have to disagree with the JTWC's assessment of this being a 30kt tropical depression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 both 12z models today show a hit with Francisco... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I'm not a certified meteorologist or anything, but I think I'm going to have to disagree with the JTWC's assessment of this being a 30kt tropical depression... You gotta give the JTWC a little extra time before they pick up on immediate trends... they aren't quite as fast to the play as the NHC is with immediate satellite trends, which can be frustrating sometimes. Francisco has completed an ERC, so we could see some recovery in its IR storm structure later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 28W should have no problem hitting 115 knots with the amount of deep OHC available. Three cyclones in this one image. Gotta love the WPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Already building an inner core Should be another case of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Geezz, we've got two typhoon's now! 12z EURO gets Francisco down to about 912mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Looks like Francisco is actually passing over the cold wake of Wipha... hence the degradation in the deeper convection over the center today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Lekima quite symmetrical already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Up to Cat 1. 90mph. Not going to effect too many people with a track like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Francisco looks to me like it's slowly unraveling, but I notice the JTWC and JMA have very different initial intensity estimates: 75 kt (1-min) vs. 85 kt (10-min). That 10-min value converts to ~97 kt (1-min), so they're more than 20 kt apart. It just goes to show what an inexact science satellite intensity estimates are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Lekima is bombing. Wpac is on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Amped - what is the T/CI number based off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Francisco looks to me like it's slowly unraveling, but I notice the JTWC and JMA have very different initial intensity estimates: 75 kt (1-min) vs. 85 kt (10-min). That 10-min value converts to ~97 kt (1-min), so they're more than 20 kt apart. It just goes to show what an inexact science satellite intensity estimates are. Or that one agency is grossly overestimating the current intensity ... The system is moving over the same waters upwelled by Wipha. Since global models are not directly coupled with the ocean, it's not surprising both the GFS and ECMWF grossly overestimated the current intensity of Francisco at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Or that one agency is grossly overestimating the current intensity ... The system is moving over the same waters upwelled by Wipha. Since global models are not directly coupled with the ocean, it's not surprising both the GFS and ECMWF grossly overestimated the current intensity of Francisco at this time. Makes sense. The JMA's intensities can be a little weird sometimes. Like, they seem to be overestimating Francisco, but when we were chasing Fitow, we were appalled at how long it took them to upgrade that one to a typhoon. It had deep convection fully wrapping around an obvious eye, and they were still only saying 55 kt (10-min) or something like that. It was crazy. James-- who follows the JMA really closely-- says they're good with track but often a mess on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Yeah, regarding intensity you're best off just using your own judgement instead of the agencies out here. Lekima certainly bombing out and JTWC forecasting it to peak as a cat. 5 (140kts.) I mulled over giving a shot at chasing Francisco on Minamidaito but could handle going through the stress of an island chase for a decaying storm, especially after what Josh put me through earlier in the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Yeah, regarding intensity you're best off just using your own judgement instead of the agencies out here. Lekima certainly bombing out and JTWC forecasting it to peak as a cat. 5 (140kts.) I mulled over giving a shot at chasing Francisco on Minamidaito but could handle going through the stress of an island chase for a decaying storm, especially after what Josh put me through earlier in the month! Ha. My plan's workin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Gotta love the WPAC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Interestingly I think Lekimia saved Japan from Fransisco. It looks like the Fujiwara is what is keeping Fransisco from making progressing north and when it finally turns NE, it still has room to miss the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Interestingly I think Lekimia saved Japan from Fransisco. It looks like the Fujiwara is what is keeping Fransisco from making progressing north and when it finally turns NE, it still has room to miss the coast. Even if it hit mainland Japan, it would be transitioning crap with the stronger side offshore-- kind of like Wipha last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Even if it hit mainland Japan, it would be transitioning crap with the stronger side offshore-- kind of like Wipha last week. I think spared Japan means more than wind, they were pretty devastated by mudslides and floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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