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2nd half of April, general forecast ideas and banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Hi folks,

 

I thought I would start a new "threat" to cover the basics and encourage subversive insults/troll tactics in the best spirit of what American Weather/New England has to offer...  

 

After taking in the breadth of available guidance types, and their ensemble-derived teleconnectors, I think we have to hang onto the possibility for a winter-like event until the first of May this year.   More than just endemic awareness of how this season has been suffering along a flat transition curve out of the cold season, there is room to consider a potential cold'ish event during the 22n and the 28th or so to end out this month.  

 

Rather than laboriously posting a bunch of annotated images, when we all know where to go and find them at this point,  I will just attempt to describe here.   The NAO goes starkly positive over the next 7 days in the CDC and CPC agency derivatives.  The Euro was not available at Raleigh Weather's site, but the previous computations concurred.  What this serves up, considering the PNA is currently both flat but tending negative, and is also on the door-step of seasonally losing its correlation on the field (still has applicability to some degree though), is that that next week will likely average warmer than normal -- notwithstanding however much in magnitude that arrives...

 

Sure enough, the longer term more dependable operational guidance types are indicating a rather positive looking NAO, geopotential heights regime in the western regions of the NAO domain; the westerlies as denoted by the 576DM contour, are quite agreeably situated much farther N, N of 40N during said time.  In which there will also be a couple of waves propagating N of the area that could have local spacial scaled headache impacts on our sensible weather.

 

One, namely, Back Door fronts.   The NOGAPS and GGEM are emphatic about a wayward S/W punching N of Maine, and drilling a period of confluence on the backside over eastern Ontario and eventually out through the lower Maritime.  That is text book BD generation.  That type of activity bullies +PP into Maine and the GOM, and then that air summarily rumbles on SW to abruptly and rudely impact an otherwise pleasant evening at Fenway.  That said, Euro and GFS precise details in the trajectory of that S/W provides less confidence the former model types will succeed.  The latter have a progressive appeal, which limits the production time for any BD air mass, thus, have less or no impact in that regard. 

 

Seeing as the Euro is at D4, and does have "some" in the form of a kink in the barographic layout, notwithstanding climatology, I'd have to nod in that favor and go with a some kind of contamination from the NE around D4.  After that, there is unanimous agreement for  2 or perhaps 3 day significant positive departure.   Temperate conditions likely before any BD mid week-late week, and next weekend's warmth. 

 

Then, there is a subtle indication with rising PNA and late NAO tank, that a period of lower geopotential means might pass through New England and MA, and given to season trends to return to chill at least excuse imaginable, I wouldn't hang up on at least monitoring that period of time.  Could be obnoxious too -- I almost see a bit of April 1996 analog there, perhaps, with partial leaf out excited by previous week's warming.   It's really blurry obviously and very low confidence for anything in particular, but given to seasonal trends, any teleconnector giggles in the goo-ga-ga range should probably tickle some fancies.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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To also help kick this off ... some good news for the drought in the midwest, with a small amount of improvement.  The large areas of Exceptional drought status have been cut back in areal coverage -- still pervasive, but long term recovery will take smaller intervals most likely.   The current QPF outlook for many eastern areas of the drought's worst areas is in the neighborhood of 4 to 5" with a slow moving strong frontal system set to migrate east out of the Front Range of the Rockies.   

 

drmon.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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A snow event? Hmm ..interesting..  Of course it wasn't 60's and sunny Saturday either

 

Ur a dichead -- how appropos that you would act like one when you look like one--hahahahahaha

 

To re-iterate:

 

 

"...you are as usual misconstrued as far as what was really forecast.  First of all, "all weekend" is completely errant as far as what was discussed.  

 

Saturday [only] was a "wedge" of "possibly" good weather, and it was heavily discussed IN THAT CONTEXT, but again as usual, your unique capacity for selective reading comprehension skills has gotten the better of you.   It was always "cloud dependent" and was even written with those exact words, by me, one point or another, and I am pretty sure most sources agree(d) there..."

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

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at the same time red river flooding will be very bad this year

 

 

Too bad that river flows north and not into the Mississippi River. I read that drought conditions improved in only the top 2" of soil in alot of the Upper Mid-West. Deeper soil conditions remain dry for deep rooted crops like corn.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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OP Euro was a total disaster in the LR. Our torch this week has been muted some, but I think we will get some nice days even if they aren't the +20 days guidance was hinting at earlier for Tuesday/Wed.

 

Yeah Euro has one of those classic April SE flow rain storms. Ugly. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Another beauty in progress... from a couple inches of snow squalls yesterday, to bluebird and 40s today. May be able to even hit 50F which would feel absolutely awesome.

 

Lift ops already in t-shirts and sunglasses at 35 degrees. Standing in the sun feels so hot this time of year.

 

Sweet sunrise this morning... still looks like January up here with nary a bare spot in the snowpack. Would be nice to see if we could get one last snow event as we are at 286" on the season... only 14" away from the 300 benchmark.

 

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tamarack

tamarack

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Worst spring in history rolls on

Where were you in 2005?  That year April featured rainstorm after cold rainstorm.  May had fewer, but they lasted forever.  The month had 23 days with measurable precip, including 5" from 5/22-26 with temps remaining in the 40s (except for a dip to 39 one day.)  And both months had loads of other 40s-low 50s rainouts.  This month has failed to provide any real warmth (my high so far is 56), but it's also lacked the long rainy/cloudy stretches - not nice and sporingy, but far from the disaster of some other recent Aprils.

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