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The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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thats the first thing im going to do is see what elevation the house is on it doesnt have to be blandford but would like that area

whatever u do, don't buy ALONG or right near the RIVER in russell (town that borders blandford to east)  just check the elevation where u buy! there's areas in russell around 400' (awful) . Sell it to the Girlfirend (if u need to) that lower elevations will flood and damage stuff much more often. lots of blandford appears to be over 800' some around 1500'

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Interesting that the avg of many of the climate models is for ENSO neutral heading into next winter.

 

 

The statistical models are neutral negative which is interesting. They outperformed the dynamical models this past winter...they were the ones that showed the Nino really struggling to get past warm-neutral which is what actually happened. But even the dynamical model consensus is pretty weak right now.

 

I've been favoring a neutral for next winter for a while now, but that doesn't mean much as we generally get a much better idea by May/June. I would put El Nino next most likely. I doubt a La Nina at this point.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The statistical models are neutral negative which is interesting. They outperformed the dynamical models this past winter...they were the ones that showed the Nino really struggling to get past warm-neutral which is what actually happened. But even the dynamical model consensus is pretty weak right now.

I've been favoring a neutral for next winter for a while now, but that doesn't mean much as we generally get a much better idea by May/June. I would put El Nino next most likely. I doubt a La Nina at this point.

I haven't looked at ENSO in months and it just occurred to me to check it out. I thought I remember they were hedging warm neutral back in November or December, but yeah....really not much of a signal for Nino or Nina. Like you said...tough to tell for sure this early.

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
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After the mild-down of late, it looks like a nice weekend in the extended forecast here with a chance for above normal temps come Easter Sunday:

 

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

 

Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

 

Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 47.

 

Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28.

 

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 53.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=box&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=74&map_y=182&x=59&y=147

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

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Me and my girlfriend were talking last night and we are going to start looking for a house in the blandford area I cant wait to get out of the dreaded valley for next winter!!  :snowing:  :lmao:

 

 

Blandford is a good spot. At least 90% of the town is above 1,000 feet and it's on the east slope of the Berkshires, so you'll get some added enhancement during the easterly flow that normally accompanies synoptic snowfalls. Some of the western parts of the town are around 1,600 to 1,700 feet and probably average close to 85-90" per year. It's also an easy commute to the Springfield area on MA 23 and US 20, which is nice. The nearby towns of Becket, Otis, Chester, and Tolland are good snow spots too, especially spots above 1,000 feet.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

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All you gotta do is mosey up towards Stinson Lake, got a place up there. They'll be 2 FT of snow OTG while Plymouth has zilch, 750' el. difference and a 20 minute drive

 

Yup, know that area well since I went to met school at Plymouth. Another good spot is on NH 118 near Dorchester or North Groton Rd. in Groton. They're near 1.5K in elevation and hold snow much better than Plymouth.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Regardless of what ever system steals away from spring temporarily going forward ... wow what a spectacular day this opened up to being.  Zippo mid and high level cloud residual, and evaporating pancake CU field has us at 80 to 90% sun, under cerulean blue sky.  

 

Temps have soared to 52F here in Ayer, and with very light and variable wind, it's like getting drunk just standing around out there.   Tomorrow could near 57 if today is any guide - although there is definitely going to be a cap on how warm it can get with still cold 850s.   DPs are low, so it will get cold at night.  

 

If anyone can't see the season's already turned, you just need to check into a state mental infirmary for immediate evaluation.   

 

The question is anomaly frequency and if any of those can supersede the longer term reality of that going forward.   We do have an impressive cold wave that appears pretty well rooted ultimately in tropical forcing (ironically) off the Phase 8-1 MJO relay, and the Euro is interesting in the extended... But, there is naturally going to be increased stochastic output run to run being that it is now transition season -- as if the last several months of modeling performance needs another hit.   Anyway, recent runs have had that cold wave be more like nuisance for a day and half, to this recent 12z run that has something more continental and penetrating.

 

That may be the last hurrah, btw.  As expected, yesterdays sudden return to cold teleconnectors is coming frayed.  There is now less concerted agreement with the longer term AO and NAO, with half the members lifting the indexes substantially.  That EPO signal also fell apart at the ESRL channel over at CDC.   So it is not really clear if the ensembles are handing us BS based on seasonal flux/variance.   Yes, cold, but how much?

 

I don't think we are done with another snow chance, perhaps a significant one.  Seasonal trend alone argues for protracting the finish to winter, so seeing days like this are nice, but it would be unwise to assume it's going to be like this from now on and warmer.   Still, diabatic heating in turn modulating the lower level thickness has begun. 

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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All you gotta do is mosey up towards Stinson Lake, got a place up there. They'll be 2 FT of snow OTG while Plymouth has zilch, 750' el. difference and a 20 minute drive

 

 

Yup, know that area well since I went to met school at Plymouth. Another good spot is on NH 118 near Dorchester or North Groton Rd. in Groton. They're near 1.5K in elevation and hold snow much better than Plymouth.

Yeah, there are a lot of little nuances in the area. On my drive back up on Sunday, I took a detour, got off at exit 23 on 93 and tried to find a nice place to check out Newfound lake. In the wooded areas near the lake there was still like 12-24" of snow depth compared to like 4-6" when I got to downtown Plymouth (pretty much all snow is gone now in Plymouth).  It looked like mid winter on Newfound lake, but I'm sure that is steadily melting this week. 

 

I didn't know how close it is though. Newfound lake is only like a 10-15 minute drive from my dorm, thought it was much farther.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah, there are a lot of little nuances in the area. On my drive back up on Sunday, I took a detour, got off at exit 23 on 93 and tried to find a nice place to check out Newfound lake. In the wooded areas near the lake there was still like 12-24" of snow depth compared to like 4-6" when I got to downtown Plymouth (pretty much all snow is gone now in Plymouth).  It looked like mid winter on Newfound lake, but I'm sure that is steadily melting this week. 

 

I didn't know how close it is though. Newfound lake is only like a 10-15 minute drive from my dorm, thought it was much farther.

 

NewFound is a real good area for snow. There is also another weenie spot south of Conway NH..Madison/Ossipee/Sandwich area that is another magnet. The NW part of Winnie actually gets downsloped sometimes from the Ossipees to the ENE. 

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weatherMA

weatherMA

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NewFound is a real good area for snow. There is also another weenie spot south of Conway NH..Madison/Ossipee/Sandwich area that is another magnet. The NW part of Winnie actually gets downsloped sometimes from the Ossipees to the ENE. 

Yeah it is. I was just amazed because it's literally about an 8-10 minute drive and it quickly goes from just piles left in downtown Plymouth to still a decent snowpack. I'll probably go for another drive Friday and see how much snow is left by then.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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Blandford is a good spot. At least 90% of the town is above 1,000 feet and it's on the east slope of the Berkshires, so you'll get some added enhancement during the easterly flow that normally accompanies synoptic snowfalls. Some of the western parts of the town are around 1,600 to 1,700 feet and probably average close to 85-90" per year. It's also an easy commute to the Springfield area on MA 23 and US 20, which is nice. The nearby towns of Becket, Otis, Chester, and Tolland are good snow spots too, especially spots above 1,000 feet.

 

Blandford is a good spot but you have to go through Westfield.  Granville can be a good spot too and it's a straight shot to 57.  I have several co-workers that live up there, including one in Worthington.  He get's to Springfield via Holyoke.

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