The Lion's end to March banter and discussion, part deux!

[ORH_wxman]

 

 

Alright...I'll answer my own question from earlier... From April 29th, 1987.....

 

Surprise April Snow Paralyzes New England

End-of-April showers turned into a snowstorm that stunned New England with up to 21 inches of heavy, wet snow today, snarling traffic for motorists who had removed snow tires and leaving thousands without electricity.

Two days before the storm, Concord, N.H., had warmed into the 70s and flowers had started blooming.

New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu ordered state offices closed until noon to reduce the number of people getting in the way of road crews, and some schools were closed in Rhode Island.

 

"It's an absolutely awful sight. We're bearing with it as well as we can," police dispatcher Janet Bagley said in Foster, R.I. But she added, "It's actually very, very pretty out there."

Record in Worcester

Heavier snowfall amounts included 21 inches in north-central Massachusetts at Ashburnham and Lunenburg; 18 inches at Francestown, N.H.; 17 inches at Mont Vernon, N.H.; 15 inches at Burrillville and Glocester, R.I., and 13 inches at Brassua, Maine.

Worcester in east-central Massachusetts received at least 17 inches, the most snow on record so late in the season and the largest spring snowstorm on record.

Power lines felled by the weight of the snow or falling branches left about 40,000 people without power this morning in the Worcester, Framingham and Merrimack Valley areas of Massachusetts, utility officials said.

In Rhode Island, about 7,000 customers of Blackstone Valley Electric Co. were without power for up to an hour Tuesday night, and scattered outages continued today.

At least half a dozen radio stations in New Hampshire were knocked off the air.

The airport at Worcester, Mass., was closed today and more than 150 snowplows were called out. The city's snow-removal budget already had a deficit of at least $1 million, and the storm was expected to cost an additional $50,000 to $60,000.

 

I made a map of that storm several years ago:

[Damage In Tolland]

Alright...I'll answer my own question from earlier... From April 29th, 1987.....

Surprise April Snow Paralyzes New England

End-of-April showers turned into a snowstorm that stunned New England with up to 21 inches of heavy, wet snow today, snarling traffic for motorists who had removed snow tires and leaving thousands without electricity.

Two days before the storm, Concord, N.H., had warmed into the 70s and flowers had started blooming.

New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu ordered state offices closed until noon to reduce the number of people getting in the way of road crews, and some schools were closed in Rhode Island.

"It's an absolutely awful sight. We're bearing with it as well as we can," police dispatcher Janet Bagley said in Foster, R.I. But she added, "It's actually very, very pretty out there."

Record in Worcester

Heavier snowfall amounts included 21 inches in north-central Massachusetts at Ashburnham and Lunenburg; 18 inches at Francestown, N.H.; 17 inches at Mont Vernon, N.H.; 15 inches at Burrillville and Glocester, R.I., and 13 inches at Brassua, Maine.

Worcester in east-central Massachusetts received at least 17 inches, the most snow on record so late in the season and the largest spring snowstorm on record.

Power lines felled by the weight of the snow or falling branches left about 40,000 people without power this morning in the Worcester, Framingham and Merrimack Valley areas of Massachusetts, utility officials said.

In Rhode Island, about 7,000 customers of Blackstone Valley Electric Co. were without power for up to an hour Tuesday night, and scattered outages continued today.

At least half a dozen radio stations in New Hampshire were knocked off the air.

The airport at Worcester, Mass., was closed today and more than 150 snowplows were called out. The city's snow-removal budget already had a deficit of at least $1 million, and the storm was expected to cost an additional $50,000 to $60,000.

Renember the days of having snow tires ? Lol

[Guvna]

 

I made a map of that storm several years ago:

I was in high school then and a huge pine branch fell on the hood of my car in the driveway....wasn't happy. Just crazy to see those totals that late in the season..

[Guvna]

Renember the days of having snow tires ? Lol

Yeah...I know. How technology has changed everything.

[ORH_wxman]

 

I was in high school then and a huge pine branch fell on the hood of my car in the driveway....wasn't happy. Just crazy to see those totals that late in the season..

 

Most of the storm fell on the 28th...with only a few hours past midnight on the 29th. The crazy part was that the snow started late morning on the 28th and was rapidly accumulating all afternoon despite the obscene sun angle. But it doesn't matter when the snow is very heavy in intensity. Even BOS at Logan airport getting 4 inches was impressive.

[Guvna]

  

Most of the storm fell on the 28th...with only a few hours past midnight on the 29th. The crazy part was that the snow started late morning on the 28th and was rapidly accumulating all afternoon despite the obscene sun angle. But it doesn't matter when the snow is very heavy in intensity. Even BOS at Logan airport getting 4 inches was impressive.

Yeah...I remember my buddy going for his drivers license that afternoon in Worcester. He got it, but I think the Statey was pretty lenient.

[Damage In Tolland]

I bet I had 10 from that

[HoarfrostHubb]

I was at school at ULowell back then. Don't remember it at alll

Nice event

[Cold Miser]

It's going to snow and get cold next week

lolz.

Do you still have 100% snow cover.

[dendrite]

I bet I had 10 from that

Receive or report?

[SouthCoastMA]

Receive or report?

.8" received = 1.0" outputted

That map shows 8, so 10" makes sense using the ctblizz method

[Clinch Leatherwood]

.8" received = 1.0" outputted

That map shows 8, so 10" makes sense using the ctblizz method

 

Plus before GW snow didn't compact as quickly.

[Typhoon Tip]

The numbers are what they are...you can believe them or not. They are available on ESRL. Your example of a -4 SD -NAO and west based is a specific extreme example and geographically specific as well...so that is not proof that the NAO has more than a 0.2 correlation overall.

 

If you sense I am throwing out teleconnectors because I "want" a colder outcome, then I have no idea what to tell you John...I use the teleconnectors with very mild weight in April because that is statistically what is supported. If I see a -4 SD block over northeast Quebec, then obviously that would be one thing...that is a lot different than looking at a CPC bar graph that says the NAO is going negative and the PNA is rising.

 

 

You read your own words and tell me how else they should be interpreted, Will

 

You can't fairly say the NAO and PNA are useless in April (which you are wrong, and quote one source when there are hundreds of papers that are for more discrete for specific cases that demonstrate that ESRL number is less than useful) in one sentence, and then say you favor cold in the next without citing a cause.

 

It comes across as bias.   The NAO and PNA are useless in April so go colder??  And I explained that the ensemble mean of the Euro was not cold like you think.  Not sure where that came from either. 

 

What!   To say nothing of the fact that in the absence of a motivating teleconnector, there is not really much evidence anywhere to support a default colder scenario results when using recent decade of Climo.  

 

Look, not trying to be a douche here -- I just don't think you are being as objective about this as you may think you are. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully Brain696969 in Fairfield can let us know what this looks like since he PAYS to read JB

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi7m

Just Posted Hurricane forecast for 2013 on http://Weatherbell.com  premium. Part one of the Title: "Welcome to My Nightmare"

 

Expand

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully Brain696969 in Fairfield can let us know what this looks like since he PAYS to read JB

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi7m

Just Posted Hurricane forecast for 2013 on http://Weatherbell.com  premium. Part one of the Title: "Welcome to My Nightmare"

 

Expand

What a sleezebag salesman. 

[CT Rain]

What a sleezebag salesman.

Garbage. What an embarrassment he is.

[CoolMike]

Bastardi is a moron.

[Typhoon Tip]

Garbage. What an embarrassment he is.

 

 

I like this..

 

"Why WeatherBELL Analytics?

 Joe Bastardi and the WeatherBELL team warned us about Hurricane Sandy nine days before landfall.  They provided unwavering forecasts for a landfalling hurricane around NYC, and we were the first to know that this unprecedented event would occur."

 

of course it's endorsed by, Sean Hannity, Fox News, so what does one expect.   

 

It should read, "Why American Weather Forums/New England", as many of us on here were collectively seeing this thing 11 or 12 days out, warning about a "hook" storm scenario.   It sucks, because they operate from a point on a pedestal that keeps them locked into an echelon of deference, when there are many out here with vision that is more than sufficient to the task, who are marginalized circumstance.  

 

At the time, the Roundy Probs were sky rocketing 20 days ahead of that, for the SW Atlantic Basin, and the extended lead teleconnector for the NAO was signaling the block from all available agencies.  It wasn't a gigantic leap to see a vulnerability in the charts way obnoxiously ahead of normal determinism with that deal -- yet because of that station he has, he sacs the credit.  Okay.  

 

But you know ... that really doesn't bother me?  I don't really care that he/they tapped into common sources/recognition like the rest of us, or even that there is a credit grab there.   What bothers me is the machine gun sensationalized other events that has come from him, which number very high, that did not take place as advertised; but for some odd reason, those failures are not reflected in his reputation.    

 

Even that wouldn't bother me so much, but one thing I have learned since graduating Meteorology is that reputation is about 80 percent of one's maintaining their successes in this field.  So when you broadcast from a virtual "monopoly broadcast reverence", it's a bit off-putting.  Particularly one engages in spin tactics that don't get properly scrutinized. 

[dryslot]

There are scumbags in every profession

[Typhoon Tip]

Drove around today and noticed throughout the Middlesex countryside the utter lack of any foliage response.  

 

If nights can remain above freezing through Monday, while afternoons make the 50's, I wonder if this triggers green-up.  Initially, it would be bud swelling only ... slow at first as usual.  Last year at this time, perhaps caused by an obscenely warm March had shrubs blooming and sugar maple cracked buds, already.   If it snowed heavily tomorrow, it would be indistinguishable from a January event, perhaps caused by a slightly cooler than normal March.   

 

After a taste of spring, mid week should return to 40s for highs, 20's for lows for a couple of days, but it may moderate quickly given to the time of year.  

[nzucker]

Drove around today and noticed throughout the Middlesex countryside the utter lack of any foliage response.

If nights can remain above freezing through Monday, while afternoons make the 50's, I wonder if this triggers green-up. Initially, it would be bud swelling only ... slow at first as usual. Last year at this time, perhaps caused by an obscenely warm March had shrubs blooming and sugar maple cracked buds, already. If it snowed heavily tomorrow, it would be indistinguishable from a January event, perhaps caused by a slightly cooler than normal March.

After a taste of spring, mid week should return to 40s for highs, 20's for lows for a couple of days, but it may moderate quickly given to the time of year.

I think the recent warm spells have distorted your recollection of when green-up and leaf-out usually occur. Even down here in Westchester, we usually don't get widespread budding until the first or second week of April with leaf-out from April 20-May 5. I can definitely remember years when May still had bare trees. 2012 and 2010 were the exception with full leaf out in Dobbs Ferry by April 15th. That is exceeding rare.

[ORH_wxman]

You read your own words and tell me how else they should be interpreted, Will

 

You can't fairly say the NAO and PNA are useless in April (which you are wrong, and quote one source when there are hundreds of papers that are for more discrete for specific cases that demonstrate that ESRL number is less than useful) in one sentence, and then say you favor cold in the next without citing a cause.

 

It comes across as bias.   The NAO and PNA are useless in April so go colder??  And I explained that the ensemble mean of the Euro was not cold like you think.  Not sure where that came from either. 

 

What!   To say nothing of the fact that in the absence of a motivating teleconnector, there is not really much evidence anywhere to support a default colder scenario results when using recent decade of Climo.  

 

Look, not trying to be a douche here -- I just don't think you are being as objective about this as you may think you are. 

 

 

We'll agree to disagree...the numbers are stastical analysis. You can decide subjectively when you want to believe them or not...that is a different argument. But looking at the CPC number alone will give you the exact correlation that the maps show...which is essentially useless for our region.

 

This is different than looking at the actual synoptic maps and seeing where blocking is occurring. I tend to do that much more than look at the actual number of the index.

 

 

If anyone is coming across as biased it is you for rejecting statistics. I didn't even favor cold in New England all month, I said I'd favor cold in the upper plains and probably a stripe to the SE US for monthly anomalies.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the wave on Tuesday that the Euro and Euro ens have are our last shot at snow. If that doesn't pan out..then yes  it is over and we look forward to the lawn thread. 13 days..13 days left in the period. April 10 on warmth returns

[OceanStWx]

I like this..

 

But you know ... that really doesn't bother me?  I don't really care that he/they tapped into common sources/recognition like the rest of us, or even that there is a credit grab there.   What bothers me is the machine gun sensationalized other events that has come from him, which number very high, that did not take place as advertised; but for some odd reason, those failures are not reflected in his reputation.    

 

Even that wouldn't bother me so much, but one thing I have learned since graduating Meteorology is that reputation is about 80 percent of one's maintaining their successes in this field.  So when you broadcast from a virtual "monopoly broadcast reverence", it's a bit off-putting.  Particularly one engages in spin tactics that don't get properly scrutinized. 

 

You know this is because he (and TWC for that matter) have realized that sensationalism gets you the eyeballs and as soon as you bust you can already be onto the next "big one" before people even realize you missed the first one. TWC can send Cantore to D.C. for all to watch him huddle under an umbrella instead of playing in thundersnow, but they just name the next winter storm and divert people's attention to that. And inevitably if people do cry bust, it's all mets that get lumped together and not those that made the highly sensationalized calls.

 

They hide behind the guise of public service, when in reality they are out for ratings, subscriptions, mouse clicks, what have you. It's these types of forecasts that dilute the message when a threat is real and the message needs to be heard and acted upon.

 

 

Of course that isn't quite relevant to this thread, but I'm still waking up this morning. Looks like we'll end the month/start April with a nice little event to put a dent in our remaining snow pack. I'm hoping we can get rid of it all around here. Nice PWAT anomalies pushing into New England, with H9 temps trying to sneak up to +1 SD, on the 00z GEFS run. Op runs (GFS, Euro) show a nice cold front to follow Monday. Sharp temp gradient, good LLVL moisture, a little instability - could be some squalls on the boundary.

[Typhoon Tip]

We'll agree to disagree...the numbers are stastical analysis. You can decide subjectively when you want to believe them or not...that is a different argument. But looking at the CPC number alone will give you the exact correlation that the maps show...which is essentially useless for our region.

 

This is different than looking at the actual synoptic maps and seeing where blocking is occurring. I tend to do that much more than look at the actual number of the index.

 

 

If anyone is coming across as biased it is you for rejecting statistics. I didn't even favor cold in New England all month, I said I'd favor cold in the upper plains and probably a stripe to the SE US for monthly anomalies.

 

That's my point - YOU are the one that is coming across as subjectively applying, because you refuse think anything other than a linear application of that scalar value they reply, when it means nothing to a responsible Meteorologist to our local climate as just one value.  

 

You made a blanket false statement earlier and have been trying spin it around like you're superior in your understanding application, and it's not going to work.

 

I agree, we should both disagree with that tact -

[Typhoon Tip]

I think the recent warm spells have distorted your recollection of when green-up and leaf-out usually occur. Even down here in Westchester, we usually don't get widespread budding until the first or second week of April with leaf-out from April 20-May 5. I can definitely remember years when May still had bare trees. 2012 and 2010 were the exception with full leaf out in Dobbs Ferry by April 15th. That is exceeding rare.

 

No - I don't distort my recollection.

 

WTF is going on around here with you people.   I think you are all pissed and subversively trolling within the confines of the forum rules so as to go undetected, and I think Will is the master at this from  a position of rank - too.

 

I am well aware of the normal green-up times, and that they can be offset/modulated slightly by in situ climate biases.

 

I'm not a provincial running around with odd-ball belief systems in this.   

[CoastalWx]

That's my point - YOU are the one that is coming across as subjectively applying, because you refuse think anything other than a linear application of that scalar value they reply, when it means nothing to a responsible Meteorologist to our local climate as just one value.  

 

You made a blanket false statement earlier and have been trying spin it around like you're superior in your understanding application, and it's not going to work.

 

I agree, we should both disagree with that tact -

 

Well it depends on the form and shape of the block right? In the traditional sense...the -NAO doesn't have a huge say in the outcome of our temps..there is a weak correlation and it does have some effect obviously..but given the wavelength issue and our location in the CONUS..it's not just a slam dunk for temps.

[CoastalWx]

March and early April 2010 had a big -NAO, but we torched too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well it depends on the form and shape of the block right? In the traditional sense...the -NAO doesn't have a huge say in the outcome of our temps..there is a weak correlation and it does have some effect obviously..but given the wavelength issue and our location in the CONUS..it's not just a slam dunk for temps.

 

Well it's certainly a good thing I am not referring to just temperature.    My think in using indices is pattern recognition - details like thermal anomalies align along probabilities relative to those layouts.  

 

A rising NAO in April absolutely will reflect in the orientation of jet fields at larger scales and there is no debate there.  

[Typhoon Tip]

March and early April 2010 had a big -NAO, but we torched too.

 

East or west based ?