Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Snow fall season anomalies for the 4 major climatology sites used by NWS, through the end of February: ORH: 156.3% of normal BOS: 125.5% of normal HFD: 144.0% of normal PVD: 149.4% of normal ...I suppose if there is any objective fairness to the discussions going forward, ...the cliche 'no one has any room to complain' is (unfortunately for those blinded by desire) quite veracious at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Snow fall season anomalies for the 4 major climotology sites used by NWS, through the end of February: ORH: 156.3% of normal BOS: 125.5% of normal HFD: 144.0% of normal PVD: 149.4% of normal ...I suppose if there is any objective fairness to the discussions going forward, ...the cliche 'no one has any room to complain' is (unfortunately for those blinded by desire) quite veracious at this time. Don't forget BDR! 249.2% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lets give love to all humankind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Deep winter continues..even though some say we are turning the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Turning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 TurningYea well it is almost April, lol at some point it has to but right now it is as close to midwinter as I have ever seen it in CNE NNE. The winter sports midwinter form, if you like winter I suggest anyone head north. I mean VT NH and Maine are absolutely beautiful right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Deep winter continues..even though some say we are turning the corner It's not going to be an easy climb out of the cellar season this time, no - The AO is rapidly rising now going forward, but I am noticing that there are a couple members now that have ventured off the previously, more concerted modlity. That's "could" mean that there is a break-down in the ensemble's anticipated AO recovery about to flash through the various members ... effectively f* up what was some hope of finally breaking the back of the cold pattern. We'll see - certainly nothing to get one's hopes up over, if they are winter enthusiasts, but some dischord did show up on the last cycle. By the way, the recent EPO index has tanked - that's it the primary cold loader into the Canadian Shield, so if that bears fruit, and Scott's erstwhile PNA rise takes place, ...oh geez, first half of April = f* for warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Snow fall season anomalies for the 4 major climotology sites used by NWS, through the end of February: ORH: 156.3% of normal BOS: 125.5% of normal HFD: 144.0% of normal PVD: 149.4% of normal ...I suppose if there is any objective fairness to the discussions going forward, ...the cliche 'no one has any room to complain' is (unfortunately for those blinded by desire) quite veracious at this time. I wonder where Bangor, Augusta, Burlington and Manchester sit relative to average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Don't forget BDR! 249.2% of normal. BDR is interesting .... but it is not "a major climatology site" for NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Cold first half of spring? Kevin will be cursing near 50 and windy in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 I wonder where Bangor, Augusta, Burlington and Manchester sit relative to average? Good question - I don't know. I don't frequent their NWS Sites enough but someone could probably located there site snow totals and compare them to average easily enough - it might make for an interesting analysis, because it seems SNE might stick out as a snowier jackpot if memory serve - but I am far less than certain there. It just seems the biggy events over the last cold season had isolated SNE as a QPF target - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Outlook for April... starting off cool but overall warm look especially by middle of the month. Warm March 31-April 3 as ext rwt arrives for the 3-4 then 10-15 degree drop in temps and colder April 4-6. Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. Sorry it's not pretty with pics to go along with it lol, some people were asking so I threw this together quickly since I have been short on time these past couple weeks. EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 BDR is interesting .... but it is not "a major climatology site" for NWS It's an LCD site. It's just as "major" as the other four you listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Up here in Central NH we had ice out a year ago today on Newfound Lake. Today the ice is still so thick you can walk across the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Cold first half of spring? Kevin will be cursing near 50 and windy in early May. You and Scott bring up salient points - the indexes being cold, doesn't mean snow really (necessarily) post April 1 - and obviously less so for every day there after. Climate is there for a reason; well, duh - it gets warmer every year, shy of a Super Volcano or a comet impact, that is a certainty. By April 15, a positive PNA spike and a -EPO and a -NAO might only means low 50s for highs, mid 30s for lows, rain, drizzle, and angry poster mud throwing. But if you want snow chances to trump climo - it's a good start having the teleconnector layout we have. Good for "bowling season" as they say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yea well it is almost April, lol at some point it has to but right now it is as close to midwinter as I have ever seen it in CNE NNE. The winter sports midwinter form, if you like winter I suggest anyone head north. I mean VT NH and Maine are absolutely beautiful right now. Yes it looks like January with snowpack. Some have reading comprehension issues and think turning the corner means 70. The first half of April will be chilly and probably another chance of snow for sure. But a whiff Monday and winter dies a slow death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think there's two shots at snow in the next 10-14 days. Watch 3/31-4/1 and then 4/3...there's even some hints around 4/6 too but that is getting out there. Def no spring any time soon...but the increasing sun angle will make it easier to get into the mid/upper 40s if you hae a sunny day even with 850 temps of like -5C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Outlook for April... starting off cool but overall warm look especially by middle of the month. Warm March 31-April 3 as ext rwt arrives for the 3-4 then 10-15 degree drop in temps and colder April 4-6. Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. Time dependent analogs support this thinking actually - It is always possible that the teleconnector domains are too conserving in the prognostications, and can be off set by thickness normalizing at the hands of daily +flux diabatic heating. Most AO analogs for this year had positive AO by the end of April, just fyi. But I think I'm leaning a bit toward Scott's camp that while we are turning the corner, it's going to take a wide turn in getting there this time. As I just posted... the EPO is negative now heading into April, from both the GFS and Euro camps. That's the cold loading index for N/A. However, if the AO were to disconnect and abandon the EPO as a more local spatial -scaled anomaly, than the delivery of anomalous air is reduced in character and would mean less to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's an LCD site. It's just as "major" as the other four you listed. It is not on NWS' page whatever LCD is irrelevant to that statement - what are you arguing, that it "should be" on NWS' page? okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It is not on NWS' page whatever LCD is irrelevant to that statement - what are you arguing, that it "should be" on NWS' page? okay - Its because its part of the OKX CWA and not BOX...he is correct that BDR is a first order site just like ORH/BOS/PVD/BDL....its just in the OKX area. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Its because its part of the OKX CWA and not BOX...he is correct that BDR is a first order site just like ORH/BOS/PVD/BDL....its just in the OKX area. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx Is it or is it now SNE? I get it, that is is valid for another NWS Site, but not KTAN - perhaps it would have been better if I had said, "NWS KTAN", instead of just NWS - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think there's two shots at snow in the next 10-14 days. Watch 3/31-4/1 and then 4/3...there's even some hints around 4/6 too but that is getting out there. Def no spring any time soon...but the increasing sun angle will make it easier to get into the mid/upper 40s if you hae a sunny day even with 850 temps of like -5C. And that can really be a "false spring" inducer - ha! Man, it can be downright Denver around here in early April, with a day of early 60's bookended by a snow thump. Hell, just look at April 1, 1997. I have waxed tails of my time up at UML for that one on multiple occasions. There were tulip shoots, blue bird blue skies, with bikini clad girls out on blankets amid the various Hall -commons of the campus on Saturday March 30, high of 64F, nearly full sun. Two days later, ...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My apologies to my many good friends here. I got upset at you guys who are knowledgeable hobbyists being dogged. I respect all input and did not bait or troll and despite those accusations am proud of the results of this thread I started when it was 60 and tulips were sprouting. I am really thinking about how much this has reminded me of 96. I was messaged last night that the Euro ENS had. 38 qpf in my hood. I would never make that up. The person who sent me that message is a Pro. Since she worked mids last night she has not answered my texts and is probably sleeping. She may have been wrong but I went with it after seeing the Ens. Would make sense that a deformation zone would set up from PVD to BDR with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Regardless, sucks missing Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Regardless, sucks missing Monday.Not for those of us still in the thick of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Time dependent analogs support this thinking actually - It is always possible that the teleconnector domains are too conserving in the prognostications, and can be off set by thickness normalizing at the hands of daily +flux diabatic heating. Most AO analogs for this year had positive AO by the end of April, just fyi. But I think I'm leaning a bit toward Scott's camp that while we are turning the corner, it's going to take a wide turn in getting there this time. As I just posted... the EPO is negative now heading into April, from both the GFS and Euro camps. That's the cold loading index for N/A. However, if the AO were to disconnect and abandon the EPO as a more local spatial -scaled anomaly, than the delivery of anomalous air is reduced in character and would mean less to us. Correct. When I refer to my temps I'm just saying with respect to previous days high temperatures...not the climate avg. high temp. So for the 22nd and beyond I just meant I think temps will cool slightly compared to the warmth we will see on the 18-19th. There should be another SW induced by a rwt somewhere in the 24-28 time frame but it's too early to nail it down yet so I just said it will bring temps down slightly beyond the 24th. But I think the last week of the month will still end up averaging with temps slightly above climate norms even with that slight dip in temps from the cooler air behind that rwt when ever it arrives. Matching the AO correlations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not for those of us still in the thick of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Not for those of us still in the thick of the game Yeah ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 All 12z GFS Ensm members are a miss. 12z GGEM is a scraper. 12z Ukie is a miss. 12z Navgem is a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Still in the game!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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