Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Deal. It's April.I am with Will on this one, sure you get those low 50 upper 40 s days but this is not your Mommas April showers bring May flowers pattern. It's snowy, it's raw and they are spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Deal. It's April.Warmth and no snow chances are here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lawn thread?When we have warm weather later in May sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 hardly satiated here and i am sure i am not in singular company...actually i think this winter outside of the blizard blew chunks...at least things were a bit more spread out in 10-11 Agreed. Definitely more wintry in 10-11. That year I was spotting coyotes out on the ice in the middle of Quabbin with nearly 3' of snow OTG... this year it never even glazed over. Noho had 66", this year closer to 50". It's not been terrible for sure and the one big event is better than 4 lesser events, but given the potential it does feel a touch disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Everyone made there calls for monday snows........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM finally moving towards consensus up north with the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM woosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM woosh All about the northern feature and sadly this time the timing blows. Nam really should be turned off at this stage it's so useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 maybe not even sw ct on this. i hope forky gets 37f rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 And just as the 12z started the trend back south, this run continues along it's blitheful course of dismantling the threat ... Honestly, the NAM has a marked +QPF bias in its 60 to 84 hour range, among it's other various performance headaches... but that one is graphical. Having a NW bias in those time frames, which it also does, would certainly atone, at least in part, for why that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 really remarkable can't remember 1 single storm this season when the NAM led other guidance with a correct idea whether it's this particular pattern or the programming has changed, i'm amazed how absolutely useless it has become, and the only reason we still give it some credence is past season performance (and for this event, it showed the solution we wanted, perhaps with a little feedback issues making this too juiced too northwest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 really remarkable can't remember 1 single storm this season when the NAM led other guidance with a correct idea whether it's this particular pattern or the programming has changed, i'm amazed how absolutely useless it has become, and the only reason we still give it some credence is past season performance (and for this event, it showed the solution we wanted, perhaps with a little feedback issues making this too juiced too northwest) It's really a shame how bad it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The model's just not well suited for a synoptic -scaled guidance, and never was. It shines over the other guidance for smaller scaled idiosyncratic noise though, and for that, it has it's value. But we've been over this and over this, that the NAM should not really be used with any credence for synoptic events ...particularly beyond 36 hours. If one knows that and the "science" of when to use the model and not, in general, it doesn't even become worth it to mention how bad it is/was on this event for those time ranges - it's like, duh, what does one expect. Check back in when it's June 10 and we need some veracious ideas on convective initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I am with Will on this one, sure you get those low 50 upper 40 s days but this is not your Mommas April showers bring May flowers pattern. It's snowy, it's raw and they are spectacular I never said it was, but it's April...that's all. I mentioned snow chances for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The model's just not well suited for a synoptic -scaled guidance, and never was. It shines over the other guidance for smaller scaled idiosyncratic noise though, and for that, it has it's value. But we've been over this and over this, that the NAM should not really be used with any credence for synoptic events ...particularly beyond 36 hours. If one knows that and the "science" of when to use the model and not, in general, it doesn't even become worth it to mention how bad it is/was on this event for those time ranges - it's like, duh, what does one expect. Check back in when it's June 10 and we need some veracious ideas on convective initialization I don't know John it's been terrible with all the norluns too. If it's not good on the meso stuff, not good at all on larger synoptic stuff it's time to start over. It's useless. The 1 time out of 20 it's right, well that's probably just luck. If we just had the Euro and GGEM I'd argue forecasts on average would not suffer at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The model's just not well suited for a synoptic -scaled guidance, and never was. It shines over the other guidance for smaller scaled idiosyncratic noise though, and for that, it has it's value. But we've been over this and over this, that the NAM should not really be used with any credence for synoptic events ...particularly beyond 36 hours. If one knows that and the "science" of when to use the model and not, in general, it doesn't even become worth it to mention how bad it is/was on this event for those time ranges - it's like, duh, what does one expect. Check back in when it's June 10 and we need some veracious ideas on convective initialization It's basically useless unless the synoptics have been figured out and the evolution is similar to the GFS/Euro. Otherwise it's garbage. Unfortunately, far too many people use it for things it's not designed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Respect the block and can be your foe and it can be your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How about that south of pike snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 How about that south of pike snow! 3-6 is just a starting point. We can raise it if we need to. Just some awful meteorology by a couple mets and many weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lots of finger pointers today, hmm maybe we should bump some threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lots of finger pointers today, hmm maybe we should bump some threads. What's your problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What's your problem?huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What are people thinking for opening day weather here in Boston, have tickets so hope we get 60's and sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 So GFS come north a hundred miles, let's see what happens at 00z. I am not dismissing a whiff nor a south of Pike special. Too much going on to nail this within 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 hmmm, wbz weather team just posted on FB the models came into agreement for a southern track...i wanted another storm...wanted the ski areas to get more snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 hmmm, wbz weather team just posted on FB the models came into agreement for a southern track...i wanted another storm...wanted the ski areas to get more snow...ski areas are fine, most will likely close with snow on the slopes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ...End of winter = deflating of weenies on the board = hot tempers, misinterpretations of models, misinterpretations of posts, and everything inbetween. Ebrace the end of the snow, enjoy the end of March that was not a Morch to remember, and prepare for banana hammocks and the most boring sport of all mankind to begin - baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 ...End of winter deflating of weenies on the board = hot tempers, misinterpretations of models, misinterpretations of posts, and everything inbetween. Ebrace the end of the snow, enjoy the end of March that was not a Morch to remember, and prepare for banana hammocks and the most boring sport of all mankind to begin - baseball. Lol baseball is the best game in the world. More snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Lol baseball is the best game in the world. More snow in April. Horrible, slow-ass sport. I even say that with having an ex MLB player in my family. edit: if they cut the season in half, I may actually give more of a crap. Plus my team sucks, year after year after year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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