The March 25-March 32 HECS potential

[WinterWxLuvr]

So, as usual this year, the EURO and the GFS are worlds apart. Ones a cutter and the other suppressed. I'm so confused!

Translation ...... Bullseye

[Bob Chill]

April 3rd looks pretty solid

 

I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. 

 

This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA

[WVclimo]

Martinsburg, WV had 10" on April 28th once.  13" at Romney.

I never bail this early on snow chances.

[SLPressure]

I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. 

 

This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA

Next to Ian, you are the funniest (translate: looniest) poster on the board, although this last statement will give him a run for the money.

[Deck Pic]

I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. 

 

This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA

for some reason 4/4 - 4/9 seems to be a popular window for events that impact someone in the mid atlantic...1982, 1987, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2007.....that is the last hurrah except for completely bizzare cut offs that affect an extremely localized area...Maybe the pattern relaxes for 2-3 days ala 2007 and we hit 70s or 80s and then we get one more cold air push behind a front...there should be residual cold up north/northwest....I'd go to the catoctins for 6" of wet snow on april 8th...

[Bob Chill]

Next to Ian, you are the funniest (translate: looniest) poster on the board, although this last statement will give him a run for the money.

 

I'm even nuttier in person. In a very fun way of course. Not chopping up small animals or anything, Well, at least not anymore but that's a whole nuther topic. And it wasn't my fault. 

[Ian]

I'll track until June. Idgaf. Ian will cry like a baby in church but I'll be happy. 

 

This is the longest tracking season I've ever seen. And hardly a thing to show for it. It's enuff to drive a grown man batsh!t nutz. hahahaahah HAHAHHHHAHAA

 

I'm fine with talking about it.. I've done plenty myself and am watching even if really skeptical locally. But it is nice when the convo is a bit more grounded.. it's been a little off the wall lately.

 

In the broader region there is no real reason to bail yet.. even in DC. But we're crunching the climo window really hard now. There have been no 1"+ snows officially in DC since the 1920s.

 

To me, and I've said it before, snow is almost entirely an IMBY affair. I think for most that is the same. It's cool to see people in the hills etc get a nice several inches last night or in the future.. but I'm selfish on this one and don't really care that much while despising a day like this in the process.

[Deck Pic]

Martinsburg, WV had 10" on April 28th once.  13" at Romney.

I never bail this early on snow chances.

 

bizarre sh-it happens....4/18/83 Tennessee Valley and Carolinas got a few inches....even RDU got 2"

 

the storm I chased last April 24th?....stuck pretty well above 1600'....just not enough moisture to do much more than a glorified dusting...Maybe one day I'll go chase something in May/June in the Dakotas or Rockies...

[Deck Pic]

I'm fine with talking about it.. I've done plenty myself and am watching even if really skeptical locally. But it is nice when the convo is a bit more grounded.. it's been a little off the wall lately.

 

In the broader region there is no real reason to bail yet.. even in DC. But we're crunching the climo window really hard now. There have been no 1"+ snows officially in DC since the 1920s.

 

To me, and I've said it before, snow is almost entirely an IMBY affair. I think for most that is the same. It's cool to see people in the hills etc get a nice several inches last night or in the future.. but I'm selfish on this one and don't really care that much while despising a day like this in the process.

 

In April?

 

EDIT - yes...must mean April....

 

pretty much impossible...

[Ian]

In April?

 

Yes

[gymengineer]

Yes

The Winter Storm Warning for April 9th, 1996 was the one negative bust that season from 24 hours out. It kind of stung, but not really, given the rest of the season. 

[Deck Pic]

The Winter Storm Warning for April 9th, 1996 was the one negative bust that season from 24 hours out. It kind of stung, but not really, given the rest of the season. 

 

 

even Bob Ryan didnt really believe it though he did forecast 4-8" IIRC....knowing climo, I dont know how anyone could forecast more than 2"  on 4/9 for inside the beltway even with epic model runs

[WVclimo]

bizarre sh-it happens....4/18/83 Tennessee Valley and Carolinas got a few inches....even RDU got 2"

 

the storm I chased last April 24th?....stuck pretty well above 1600'....just not enough moisture to do much more than a glorified dusting...Maybe one day I'll go chase something in May/June in the Dakotas or Rockies...

When I was in 6th grade, we spent a week in late May at what was then called "outdoor school," in the high ground of Garrett Co.  The first day we were there was in the upper 70's, but a front rolled through with strong thunderstorms and hail.  Early the next morning, it snowed about 2".  It was unforgettable, not least because we were sleeping in cabins with no heat.

[Ian]

The Winter Storm Warning for April 9th, 1996 was the one negative bust that season from 24 hours out. It kind of stung, but not really, given the rest of the season.

I wasn't even on the EC yet so missed it all. I'm sure there are other 'near misses' too.

I'm sure I could get cartoppers till about mid April if it's timed perfectly but I don't like snow enough for that to be fun at this pt.

I will say it is something to have a -20 afternoon march temp these days.

[gymengineer]

even Bob Ryan didnt really believe it though he did forecast 4-8" IIRC....knowing climo, I dont know how anyone could forecast more than 2"  on 4/9 for inside the beltway even with epic model runs

Yeah.. the NWS Warning phrasing was 4-8". Bob Ryan had tried to shave it down to 2-5" for the immediate metro in the afternoon newscast, but was still too high. We didn't get the low to bomb out in time, whereas Atlantic City, NJ, managed to get 8" under the comma head that was modeled to start over us. IAD reported 2.5", but I wonder if that was legit, or were they using the ridiculous method that Philadelphia used to record 2.4" in the same storm-- the observers tried to guess how much snow "fell" even though it didn't stick, lol. 

[JamieOber]

bizarre sh-it happens....4/18/83 Tennessee Valley and Carolinas got a few inches....even RDU got 2"

 

the storm I chased last April 24th?....stuck pretty well above 1600'....just not enough moisture to do much more than a glorified dusting...Maybe one day I'll go chase something in May/June in the Dakotas or Rockies...

I got about 3 and five miles up the road from me got 6 from last April. Insane after the March we had. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm fine with talking about it.. I've done plenty myself and am watching even if really skeptical locally. But it is nice when the convo is a bit more grounded.. it's been a little off the wall lately.

In the broader region there is no real reason to bail yet.. even in DC. But we're crunching the climo window really hard now. There have been no 1"+ snows officially in DC since the 1920s.

To me, and I've said it before, snow is almost entirely an IMBY affair. I think for most that is the same. It's cool to see people in the hills etc get a nice several inches last night or in the future.. but I'm selfish on this one and don't really care that much while despising a day like this in the process.

You're right about snow being IMBY, but watching what's happened to you guys this year has been painful. You guys have just had awful luck. Last year was bad for everyone, but some of us have had a decent year. We've had a lot to track this year. You never know. In an anomalous pattern like this, this next one just might be the one for you guys, Long way out though.

Damn shame we didn't have todays temp setup March 6.

[Deck Pic]

I wasn't even on the EC yet so missed it all. I'm sure there are other 'near misses' too.

I'm sure I could get cartoppers till about mid April if it's timed perfectly but I don't like snow enough for that to be fun at this pt.

I will say it is something to have a -20 afternoon march temp these days.

 

that is another reason 2003 was special among many reasons (precip, snow, isabel,etc)...the cold Apr-June...we popped 5 record low maxes which is f-ucking unheard of for a modern era year at DCA

[olafminesaw]

The 18z gfs sucks. Throw out the storm, lol.       

[gymengineer]

I've seen mention of 1958 and 1942. I don't know anything about those storms, but I do have a question about them. Were they considered once in 50 year storms, once in a 100? I think March 1993 was considered one in a hundred?

3/42 was the fluke of all flukes. It was not an east coast snowstorm-- a lame 1008-mb low scooting off the coast had a super-intense band of precip associated with an inverted trough that dropped ~12" in DC, 22" in Baltimore, over 30" in Northern Maryland, and 36"+ in Central PA. Surrounding this pretty narrow corridor of snowfall was non-accumulating snow or rain. 

 

3/58 dumped 3.75" liquid equivalent at DCA. Try to find another snowstorm that was as wet. 

 

I think a takeaway from these late season cases is that they were all extreme in one way or another. A 0.75-1" liquid equivalent storm spread out over 18 hours is just not going to do it if want a significant accumulation in the cities.

Something like 3/24-25/90 is like the upper bound for DC nowadays (unless you do get that extreme event)-- a few inches of pretty snow on grass and trees but not sticking on the roads.  

[ORH_wxman]

apparently the euro ensembles were amplified and nothing like the OP

 

 

They were...I was actually pretty surprised. I'd def keep an eye out in that area...obviously DCA itself is going to struggle unless every detail is perfect, but this could easily do well in the suburbs. Really you want to have two large scale ingredients in place for a larger impact winter storm in that area (this is outside the localized bowling ball lows) in the late season...

 

 

1. Sick blocking

2. Fresh cold airmass

 

 

Both ingredients should be in place. Its just a matter of obviously getting the details to work out such as vort track and such. Ingredient #1 makes it much easier for the vort track to be favorable but obviously it does not guarantee anything. Ingredient #2 is definitely around. This won't be an airmass where its 45F in Montreal. Hopefully it becomes a trackable event inside of 3-4 days.

[ravensrule]

They were...I was actually pretty surprised. I'd def keep an eye out in that area...obviously DCA itself is going to struggle unless every detail is perfect, but this could easily do well in the suburbs. Really you want to have two large scale ingredients in place for a larger impact winter storm in that area (this is outside the localized bowling ball lows) in the late season...

 

 

1. Sick blocking

2. Fresh cold airmass

 

 

Both ingredients should be in place. Its just a matter of obviously getting the details to work out such as vort track and such. Ingredient #1 makes it much easier for the vort track to be favorable but obviously it does not guarantee anything. Ingredient #2 is definitely around. This won't be an airmass where its 45F in Montreal. Hopefully it becomes a trackable event inside of 3-4 days.

Thanks Will for keeping the weenie hope alive.

[Bob Chill]

3/42 was the fluke of all flukes. It was not an east coast snowstorm-- a lame 1008-mb low scooting off the coast had a super-intense band of precip associated with an inverted trough that dropped ~12" in DC, 22" in Baltimore, over 30" in Northern Maryland, and 36"+ in Central PA. Surrounding this pretty narrow corridor of snowfall was non-accumulating snow or rain.

3/58 dumped 3.75" liquid equivalent at DCA. Try to find another snowstorm that was as wet.

I think a takeaway from these late season cases is that they were all extreme in one way or another. A 0.75-1" liquid equivalent storm spread out over 18 hours is just not going to do it if want a significant accumulation in the cities.

Something like 3/24-25/90 is like the upper bound for DC nowadays (unless you do get that extreme event)-- a few inches of pretty snow on grass and trees but not sticking on the roads.

Nice perspective and spot on. I'm prob one of the problems in this thread. I should keep my full blown weenie posts and serious posts separate.I tend to mix them together. The storm we're looking at will require just about all stars in the universe to line up if it's going to make a history book. Low low confidence.

But it's interesting nonetheless. If were gonna get something even modest around the beltways this isn't a bad way to give it a shot. Im rooting for nighttime commahead action. Imo that's the only way we break the godawful streak. It won't even be winter anymore. Lol. It might not even count.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's almost always a good thing when Will drops in.

[ORH_wxman]

It's almost always a good thing when Will drops in.

 

Well I thought everyone would get crushed on Mar 6-7 too.

 

But thanks anyway.

[stormtracker]

Well I thought everyone would get crushed on Mar 6-7 too.

 

But thanks anyway.

Still docking your pay for that one.

[gymengineer]

Nice perspective and spot on. I'm prob one of the problems in this thread. I should keep my full blown weenie posts and serious posts separate.I tend to mix them together. The storm we're looking at will require just about all stars in the universe to line up if it's going to make a history book. Low low confidence.

But it's interesting nonetheless. If were gonna get something even modest around the beltways this isn't a bad way to give it a shot. Im rooting for nighttime commahead action. Imo that's the only way we break the godawful streak. It won't even be winter anymore. Lol. It might not even count.

Hmm, looking more closely at 3/24/90-- that was ~0.2" at DCA and ~0.3" at IAD, with a pretty similar start time and temperature profile to today's non-event. In other words, if DCA and IAD had managed to pick up precip in the 0.2-0.3" range, today would have worked out to be pretty similar to that wintry day. 

[Bob Chill]

Hmm, looking more closely at 3/24/90-- that was ~0.2" at DCA and ~0.3" at IAD, with a pretty similar start time and temperature profile to today's non-event. In other words, if DCA and IAD had managed to pick up precip in the 0.2-0.3" range, today would have worked out to be pretty similar to that wintry day.

Yea, it was a bummer for us md suburb guys. I was 31.8 when it "snowed" at 730am. It stuck no prob. Too bad I missed the .12 prog by .119. But considering it was a super light event with only a modest cold airmass and still stuck for a bit makes you wonder about the "ifs" next week.

Euro shows below freezing surface for 12 hours+ and highs in the mid 30's on Sat. Plenty cold for something we don't get anymore.

[Amped]

Euro has been showing a PNA ridge in the D8-10 timeframe for the past 14 days. Somehow it keeps vanishing when it gets to D7. GFS has not been much better.

 

 

Edit: I give this a 3% chance of tracking east of Chicago on tomorrows run. 00z NAM and 18z GFS and model trends my basis. Laugh  you want.

[clueless]

They were...I was actually pretty surprised. I'd def keep an eye out in that area...obviously DCA itself is going to struggle unless every detail is perfect, but this could easily do well in the suburbs. Really you want to have two large scale ingredients in place for a larger impact winter storm in that area (this is outside the localized bowling ball lows) in the late season...

 

 

1. Sick blocking

2. Fresh cold airmass

 

 

Both ingredients should be in place. Its just a matter of obviously getting the details to work out such as vort track and such. Ingredient #1 makes it much easier for the vort track to be favorable but obviously it does not guarantee anything. Ingredient #2 is definitely around. This won't be an airmass where its 45F in Montreal. Hopefully it becomes a trackable event inside of 3-4 days.

I was going to say the same thing.