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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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00z UKIE is 15-20mm (.6 to .8 QPF) at DCA while temp hovers around 32 entire time precip is falling... perhaps as low as 30 when best rates come... so unless there is a sneaky warm layer, that should be snow -- and it comes Sunday night into Monday morning

 

00z GGEM is 25-30mm (around to just over 1" QPF) total.  Take off .1 for rain to start... and the rest is pretty much snow with 2m temp hovering around 32 during precip.  Heaviest precip is Monday morning it would appear

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00z GGEM is 25-30mm (around to just over 1" QPF) total. Take off .1 for rain to start... and the rest is pretty much snow with 2m temp hovering around 32 during precip. Heaviest precip is Monday morning it would appear

Yoda how was the ggem down there for the last big one? Curious to performance post upgrade. It is/was doing well most of the winter up this way, haven't noticed much of a change in any direction since. IE still pretty good.

GFS is useless. Wouldn't pay it any mind.

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Yoda how was the ggem down there for the last big one? Curious to performance post upgrade. It is/was doing well most of the winter up this way, haven't noticed much of a change in any direction since. IE still pretty good.

GFS is useless. Wouldn't pay it any mind.

I believe the GGEM was correctly pessimistic about our snow chances with the last event.  It certainly has changed its tune for the upcoming storm.  Here's to hoping that it's correct again this time for down here.

 

MDstorm

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On the crude Plymouth maps I have for right now, 48 on the EURO has a 995 in E KY and a 997 near HSE... 72 is 988 500 miles E of ACY... 850s are fine throughout... Ian or swimmate, do you have the rest of the soundings?

 

DCA Looks good. Only 33 degrees during the heaviest rates. Same story at the other 2 airports.

MON 00Z 25-MAR   3.4    -2.3    1006      63      95    0.01     546     541    MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.8    -3.8    1003      79     100    0.03     541     538    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.5    -4.3    1000      95      99    0.24     531     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.8    -5.8    1000      79     100    0.09     528     528    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.3    -6.1    1005      94      98    0.08     531     526 

 

DCA: 0.45

BWI: 0.53

IAD: 0.44

RIC: 0.62

MDT: 0.5

ACY: 0.84 (jackpot)

PHL: 0.35

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