nflwxman Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 All jokes aside, the gfs schooled the euro at this range with snowlessaddernquester. It just blew it at the end. At this range with that storm the euro was still taking it off the coast of cuba I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite. I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit. The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think at this timeline it was actually the opposite. I recall the GFS had a snowstorm for Myrtle Beach at 150 hours out while the Euro was showing a NC/VA hit. The they both adjusted north in between day 4-5 into relative agreement. I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think you both may be right. Seems they both had a pretty far south solution, and the GFS first started the north solution with the Euro stubbornly clinging to its suppressed solution. I could be wrong but that's my memory of it. you guys are right. My memory is failing me. This setup is different anyway. There is no nasty closed ull in the upper midwest this time. It digs through the rockies and doesn't close until tx-ok area. Which is actually much better for us anyways. March 6th was a very anomalous type of storm. Having the ull pass below us on a track like takes a pretty sick blocking setup to the N. The euro and gfs moved closer together today @ h5. It was nice seeing the euro have a closed low over the tx panhandle even though it went too far underneath. Heck, we can't even rule out a full blown cutter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's pretty sweet too. Big bowling ball over tn/ky that is poised to track right over head. Looks like a big batch of waa snow and then extrapolated wallop with the ull energy. I just bundled all my all ins from the entire season and put them into one big f'n bag of ALL IN. Great! 2 more inches and I break my model snow record. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 pretty much. but I know how you view these h5 setups and I share similar thoughts. It may be a big bustola but you should never go to sleep on it. imo- 12z euro is a big step towards the gfs @ h5. vort briefly closes off over tx panhandle. It just opens back up through the se. trough has a nice neutral look but it gets shoved ots again under strong confluence over NE. yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro ens mean is much further north with the storm off the coast.. climbs decently offshore but still precips us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 euro ens mean is much further north with the storm off the coast.. climbs decently offshore but still precips us. Decent or crappy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Decent or crappy precip? .5"+ liquid up 95. looks like a late season event with elevation and new england favored. the low is east of usual for good in those spots but im guessing there are some west of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah the ultimate positioning by like 168 is a good one historically tho now i feel like i need to go back and look more at how they enter the region. not sure it's as good when they push in from such a far north starting point. i also wouldn't be surprised to see it come further north.. tho the euro so far south guess we don't need to worry about that too much yet. my guess re: the euro is that there won't be two blockbuster storms in such proximity. The part that makes it easy with this is being so late in the year. If things get all munged up in the next 4 days or so at least we don't have to worry about chasing scraps. Easy to write off unless it goes down just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 .5"+ liquid up 95. looks like a late season event with elevation and new england favored. the low is east of usual for good in those spots but im guessing there are some west of the mean. this all sounds so familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Overnight hit on the Euro like GFS? I think that just as important as 950's and wind direction this time of year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Overnight hit on the Euro like GFS? I think that just as important as 950's and wind direction this time of year!! the peak is probably mon night tho not sure it matters on timing at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I guess you could call last night a confidence builder of sorts. It "can" be below freezing and snow at the same time even in the second half of march. It's not like it was some arctic hp pushing crazy below normal temps in here. Overall it was a pedestrian cold front with good cold in the source region. One thing the euro/gfs do agree on is some pretty cold stuff in here on the weekend. In the 30's saturday from what I can tell and pretty far down into the 20's near the cities at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 this all sounds so familiar the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. anyone willing to make that bet doesn't earn enough money while in high school to make it worth your while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 the gfs is cracked out. no way we're getting 1'+ in the coastal plain. if it happens i'll never post here again. this will be an elevation event if it comes together IMO. we might get some snow but doubtful we get much around DC/Balt. no need to watch it play out over 7 days.. i'd take that bet now with anyone who wants to go head to head. Why, last time the AO was -5 was Feb 2010...You guys have taken it on the chin many times the past 3 years, that may change next Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 anyone willing to make that bet doesn't earn enough money while in high school to make it worth your while It's fun to play around and have a good time but the conversation here recently has been a bit overboard on the "positive" side. I'm not even sure if I'm supposed to take most people seriously or not anymore in a majority of their posts. On the flip side it's still in fantasy range when it comes to details and crazy **** does happen every now and then. I'll give it about a 5% chance of being exciting snowwise IMBY, which is higher than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Why, last time the AO was -5 was Feb 2010...You guys have taken it on the chin many times the past 3 years, that may change next Sunday/Monday. It may but anyone going there is simply wishcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's fun to play around and have a good time but the conversation here recently has been a bit overboard on the "positive" side. I'm not even sure if I'm supposed to take most people seriously or not anymore in a majority of their posts. On the flip side it's still in fantasy range when it comes to details and crazy **** does happen every now and then. I'll give it about a 5% chance of being exciting snowwise IMBY, which is higher than climo. I see the weenies are breaking you down, stay strong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I see the weenies are breaking you down, stay strong . fortunately for you all im falling deeper into tornadoes by this time of year.. except there are no current ones to follow.. so my debness will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 fortunately for you all im falling deeper into tornadoes by this time of year.. except there are no current ones to follow.. so my debness will be limited. That's great news, now you can cry with us when the models are showing 4-8" next Sunday and we get 1" on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Take the Euro precip and cut it by 75% for up here, 50% for DCA. Make it spotty too. Throw out all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Take the Euro precip and cut it by 75% for up here, 50% for DCA. Make it spotty too. Throw out all other models. apparently the euro ensembles were amplified and nothing like the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Once again the GFS says "Let's try this scenario out. It's different than the last one". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 toss a big cutter into the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 So, as usual this year, the EURO and the GFS are worlds apart. Ones a cutter and the other suppressed. I'm so confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How often does a storm in Illinois transfer to Ohio? Throw it out. It's the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 How often does a storm in Illinois transfer to Ohio? Throw it out. It's the 18z. I think the bigger question is how often does it transfer from IL to OH and then again to VA Beach? I think it's safe to say that a solution that shows a re-developer that re-develops a second time probably won't end up verifying. Although SNE gets hit pretty good so it verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think the bigger question is how often does it transfer from IL to OH and then again to VA Beach? I think it's safe to say that a solution that shows a re-developer that re-develops a second time probably won't end up verifying. Although SNE gets hit pretty good so it verify. April 3rd looks pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think the bigger question is how often does it transfer from IL to OH and then again to VA Beach? I think it's safe to say that a solution that shows a re-developer that re-develops a second time probably won't end up verifying. Although SNE gets hit pretty good so it verify. Good point.I made the post before the second transfer. But looking at the 500, the 12z had that big vort moving thru southern Virginia and the 18z now has basically the same path but it's a series of smaller vorts. Have no idea of the significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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