Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not sure why people are talking about the NAM being way south.

 

It isn't.

 

The 500 mb low comes off the coast at NC, not SC.

The surface low is not really south either.

 

The NAM is not taking the EURO kool-aid.

 

The precip shield moved south about 25-40 miles...For example the 18z NAM gave me in Philly .75-1.00, the 00z? 0.00

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure why people are talking about the NAM being way south.

 

It isn't.

 

The 500 mb low comes off the coast at NC, not SC.

The surface low is not really south either.

 

The NAM is not taking the EURO kool-aid.

It isn't how much further south it is, it's the qpf cutoff to the north that makes us think about the euro's solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

its definitely trending toward the Euro wrt phasing. I still am not buying a final solution yet. Interesting in that the shortwave that eventually phases with it was once a part of it which splits and goes north, then tries to rephase later on. I imagine the slower solution is the cause of this. Want to see where the rest of the 0Z suite comes in. Anyone within 50 - 75 miles of the bullseye could be it at this point, in reality in either direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brutal QPF gradient, but I wouldn't worry about the NAM's precip gradient at 60+ hours.  50mi difference is still teeny tiny at this stage, especially for the NAM. 

Yeah no kidding, ouch.  .1-.25 in QPF in Northern Balto county/Carroll county and over to Harford Co Md  .5 QPF from HGR to Balto City, .75 from MRB to Frederick MD, 1" from OKV to DCA

and then south it just silly QPF of 1.25 to 2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

its definitely trending toward the Euro wrt phasing. I still am not buying a final solution yet. Interesting in that the shortwave that eventually phases with it was once a part of it which splits and goes north, then tries to rephase later on. I imagine the slower solution is the cause of this. Want to see where the rest of the 0Z suite comes in. Anyone within 50 - 75 miles of the bullseye could be it at this point, in reality in either direction.

I said the last 2 runs I don't like it when a model slows, but it didn't hurt BWI at 12z or 18z

but eventually, it starts to, like on this run

Link to comment
Share on other sites

such a tight wound thing

tough few days coming for some of us I suspect

I don't buy the tight wound solution just yet. Interesting configuration for sure, not one that I think I've totally seen before. I think this should put a final nail in the coffin that the SREFs are NO predictor of the NAM, as they are based off of old data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's just one run, and not the best timeframe for the NAM performance-wise.  I'm not quite buying the S jog, unless it becomes a real trend, which it isn't at this point.

 

The main issue I suppose at this point is that it's a bit towards the Euro. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I said the last 2 runs I don't like it when a model slows, but it didn't hurt BWI at 12z or 18z

but eventually, it starts to, like on this run

I want to see how/when that northern shortwave splits off. I don't think thats an evolution I've ever seen. A spoke splitting off the bowling ball only trying to re-entangle later on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It isn't how much further south it is, it's the qpf cutoff to the north that makes us think about the euro's solution.

 

Yeah, the EURO may be right for the wrong reason.  

 

The Euro clearly shoves the 500 mb to the SE.  The NAM places the low near enough to

our area but introduces the precipitation gradient from Hades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...