Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Steve D is going with 4-8 for NYC . Changes to freezing rain and then rain for the area.

This is why you don't want the Euro and its west solution to verify - either its going to changeover or we get dry slotted for a time - right now Euro is hard to beat especially when it has some support - 3 -6 or 4 -8 then the messsy changeover is a good call for NYC - not going to be a major snowstorm until you get further into the western half of NJ and eastern PA if the Euro is right the 12Z Euro will determine if Upton just puts out advisories or watches for individual areas or waits till 0Z model runs are analysed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Craig Allen, who has a history of being cautious and level-headed, had some interesting comments on his Facebook page...
 

 

I see some rather low forecast totals for L.I. Perhaps its based on what happened with last week's storm but the parameters from surface on up are colder. The only thing that could shoot the critical levels over to a plain rain situation would be a closer track to the coast and so far, almost every model has the storm getting very close to the 70/40 benchmark for perfection.

Plus, as mentioned yesterday, the near shore water temps are only in the 30's this winter so warming the surface will take much longer than in past winters with a warmer ocean. All the work would have to be done aloft.

For this argument, I'll say this scenario could play out well south (NJ shore south of I-195) and well east (Rt 112 to the Forks) otherwise, I'd think a 6" snowfall is good for everyone for starters. And then ramp it up.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well steve d is in a heap of trouble, no model shows mixing propblems till you on the fsr most eastern part of LI with se NJ being on the same fence and for now 4-8" is a good call but as of now that might be too low.

I think pretty much everyone is good for 6"+ and quite possibly much more. Tonight 0z can be used to really lock in amounts. Every model except the wretched GFS has a strong front end burst and a back-end heavy snow burst.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well steve d is in a heap of trouble, no model shows mixing propblems till you on the fsr most eastern part of LI with se NJ being on the same fence and for now 4-8" is a good call but as of now that might be too low.

He has been saying that he thinks the storm tracks east and if so then accumulations would go up!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the globals were a bit further east, and I mean just a few ticks to the east then the map above would not be so crazy as we would see 90% of snow with a ton of QPF. 

I think that pink area should all be 8-16 with a more narrow swath of 14-20 over NC/NW NJ. Blue should be 6-12 and the coast 3-6 but you're right we're seeing some models give us in excess of 2" liquid so even 80% snow 16" could verify

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a writeup about him on nj.com and I think this map is nuts...but on the other hand looking back at his past forecasts he's done pretty well this winter. Based on the qpf trends if we were to stay 90% snow this could almost verify

 

1904276_538413112924498_496240173_n.png

Based of NAM . If you cut these in half EAST of the TPKE  South of the Driscoll I thin kit becomes a good map

 

Ah done at 8 am . No Wonder . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From WPC- Cisco

***SOME BIG, UGLY FLIES IN THE WEATHER OINTMENT WITH THE NEWEST DATA COMING IN. IT IS NOW NOT POSSIBLE TO GIVE A MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL FORECAST COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FOR THE STORM EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THE INTRUSION OF WARM AIR IS AN EMERGENT, GLARING ISSUE. WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW-VS-RAIN, ALL BETS ARE OFF ON ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, THE GENERAL FORECAST I ISSUED LATE LAST EVENING SHOULD SERVE REASONABLY. I WILL UPDATE WITH WHAT INFORMATION I CAN LATER IN THE DAY. MEA CULPA***

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the EURO verifies and we have to depend on "wraparound" snows it may be just 6-8" and done and less towards the coast. Relying on wraparound snows/CCB almost never works out. Last time was christmas 2002

Jan 26, 2011, 3/4 of the snow was wraparound and there was 12" in 5 hours. Not saying this will happen again but if we have a closed 500mb low go by, it will be a fun few hours even if there's rain for a time on the front end.

 

The warmer trend on the Euro is a little disconcerting, I have to admit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last Feb worked out pretty well with wraparound snows.

Typically when you have to rely on them it doesnt work out to its full potential as advertised. Ive been down this road before and its makes me jitter, its snows, dryslots/ drizzles with some snow on the end and thats it. Inland areas are the ones that get it good

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...