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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

I find it interesting that prior EURO runs had that piece of northern energy drop down and phase with the shortwave. During that time the GFS/GGEM didn't. Now the EURO just sends the ULL bowling east with no major phasing while the 12z GFS/GGEM now phase (well 18z GFS showed less of it although it tried but was too late) 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It happened the same time Logan reported a gust to 80. It's documented

 

The 65 kts is questionable. I was home and while very windy..was nowhere near that. Sometimes the ASOS can malfunction with heavy snow clogging things up..but I can't rule out something localized. Who knows.

 

Anyways, not to get all weenie-ish, but from a met standpoint..pretty cool to see. This isn't the thread for this anyways.

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TheSnowman

TheSnowman

Posted
Posted

For those wondering how they feel in terms of "Have I really Liked this winter?  Especially compared to 2010-2011.......", well I created this Snowstorm Ranking System for our 4 quadrants of SNE.  Obviously, If Snow Depth were included, 2010-2011 would Destroy it, which is why we all feel up to This point on March 1st, 2013, 2 years ago was better.  But in terms of Snowstorms themselves, this year competes.  

 

The number are mostly based on the chance a storm happens.  A Historic Storm happens about 1/50th of the time of a storm that drops a dusting or more, a storm that drops 2"-4" happens about 4 times as much as a D-1" passing storm.  And so on.  It's just like a racing championship system.  Luckily we got some BIG Big Storms in these 2 seasons!  So Far.......  

 

BTW - We See in this system, as you'd expect, JUST HOW DA*N Lucky SW SNE / W CT has been!    Hamden, CT has had so many 18"+ Storms it is sickening.   

 

Dusting – 1”  Insignificant:  1 

1” – 3”  Minor:  2 

2” – 4”  Shovelable:  4 

3” – 6”  Average:  6 

6” – 10”  Moderate:  10   

6”- 12” “Bomb”  Specific Category:  20  

10”- 15”  Moderate Major:  16 

12”- 20”  Major:  25 

18” – 30”  Historic:  50  (Blizzard of 2006, Blizzard of 2011) 

24” – 40”+  Biblical:  100  (Blizzard of 2005, Blizzard of 2013) 

 

 

2012-2013 

 

SW – 10 + 0 + 6 + 10 + 4 + 1 + 100 + 1 + 0 + 1 (132) 

SE – 4 + 0 + 4 + 20 (Bomb Bonus (12/29)) + 4 +2 + 50 + 2 + 4 + 2 (92) 

NW – 2 + 2 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 1 + 25 + 0 + 0 + 1 (51) 

NE - 4 + 0 + 10 + 6 + 4 + 1 + 50 + 0 + 2 + 6 (83) 

CC – 0 + 0 + 0 + 4 + 2 + 6 + 25 + 4 + 6 + 1 (48) 

 

 

 

2010-2011 

 

SW – 0 + 1 + 16 + 10 + 2 + 50 + 4 + 6 + 2 + 16+9 (Bomb Bonus (1/27)) + 6 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 (130)   

SE – 2 + 2 + 16 + 2 + 6 + 25 + 2 + 6 + 2 + 16+9 (Bomb Bonus (1/27)) + 10 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 4 + 4 (112)  

NW – 0 + 1 + 16 + 6 + 2 + 50 + 6 + 6 + 2 + 10 + 10 + 4 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 (123) 

NE – 1 + 1 + 10 + 0 + 2 + 25 + 6 + 6 + 1 + 20 + 16 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 6 (103) 

CC – 10 + 1 + 6 + 0 + 2 + 6 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 6 + 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 4 + 2 (46)   

 

post-2792-0-45809200-1362185004_thumb.gi  

 

 

 

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Well looking like the potential for a pretty strong upslope/downslope (shadow) system for ENY and WNE.

 

 

Agreed...if the storm does come far enough north to hit, it will be a large occluded low where much of the forcing will be confined to the low levels and dependent on a strong easterly LLJ, unlike the blizzard 3 weeks ago which was driven by epic midlevel deformation and frontogenesis. In order for the west slope or the Hudson Valley to really cash in, we need good midlevel forcing and a wind direction that is not out of the east. We'll still downslope on a NE wind, but at least the low and midlevel cold is held in place a bit better, reducing the odds of west slope taint. N to NW winds are best here during a synoptic storm, but by the time the winds typically go NW the moisture is often pulling away. E winds are commonly just as bad for PSF as they are for BOS, even if for a different reason.

 

This past Wednesday's storm produced a very strong upslope/downslope couplet here where I was partly cloudy with occasional drizzle and the east slope was dumping 1-2" per hour after the midlevel dry slot punched through. Although the Berkshires aren't that big of a mountain range, they're large enough to really meddle with my weather.

 

In the shorter term, we may be in for a bit of a west slope upslope event later tomorrow and tomorrow night as more moisture retrogrades around the stacked low to the NE. I'd like to see a stronger wind field in order to really cash in, but the 18z 4 km BTV WRF is putting out 0.75-1" of LE for the Rensselaer plateau and the southern Greens near Woodford. While I think this may be a bit overdone, the potential is there for some of the favored spots to get at least a few inches of snow over the next 2 days.

 

As the wind field will a be bit weak, Froude numbers will be rather low - implying a blocked flow - which could favor areas west of the Taconics like the Rensselaer plateau doing the best.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Agreed...if the storm does come far enough north to hit, it will be a large occluded low where much of the forcing will be confined to the low levels and dependent on a strong easterly LLJ, unlike the blizzard 3 weeks ago which was driven by epic midlevel deformation and frontogenesis. In order for the west slope or the Hudson Valley to really cash in, we need good midlevel forcing and a wind direction that is not out of the east. We'll still downslope on a NE wind, but at least the low and midlevel cold is held in place a bit better, reducing the odds of west slope taint. N to NW winds are best here during a synoptic storm, but by the time the winds typically go NW the moisture is often pulling away. E winds are commonly just as bad for PSF as they are for BOS, even if for a different reason.

 

This past Wednesday's storm produced a very strong upslope/downslope couplet here where I was partly cloudy with occasional drizzle and the east slope was dumping 1-2" per hour after the midlevel dry slot punched through. Although the Berkshires aren't that big of a mountain range, they're large enough to really meddle with my weather.

 

In the shorter term, we may be in for a bit of a west slope upslope event later tomorrow and tomorrow night as more moisture retrogrades around the stacked low to the NE. I'd like to see a stronger wind field in order to really cash in, but the 18z 4 km BTV WRF is putting out 0.75-1" of LE for the Rensselaer plateau and the southern Greens near Woodford. While I think this may be a bit overdone, the potential is there for some of the favored spots to get at least a few inches of snow over the next 2 days.

 

As the wind field will a be bit weak, Froude numbers will be rather low - implying a blocked flow - which could favor areas west of the Taconics like the Rensselaer plateau doing the best.

Nice writeup

NE wind isn't too bad/bad at all for the east slopes of the Catskills.. Yes that shadow was incredible on the most recent storm. Benningtoin had anywhere from a dusting to 1/2 inch and in Eastern Washington Co (NY) totals ranged from a coating in Cambridge and Greenwich, 1/2 inch in Hebron and ZIP in Granville. Local 4k WRF from BTV pegged it perfectly.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Jerry's feeling it :drunk:

that's the cialis, go jerry go

on a serious note that sounds like an awesome evening to have jerry and lets hope we get at least 1 more event w/ boston in the game to track, i gotta think it happens

as i said that....i look'd out on the deck. threw the light on and a lone weenie flake danced down from the heavens.....

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

0z gfs ......rollin rollin rollin......she's a bit more N early at 84 and our retro low seems a tad bit more out of picture by 12z tues on this run......this could get intersting

by 108 she's still diving ESE so looks like a crushing snow bomb breaking out for elevated W NC by that time

114 LP 1000 near charlotte nc hvy snows into SW interior VA /W NC app/ TN smokies up thru coalfields of KY

120 LP taking a nap just S of charlotte congrats wakeforest, nc

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