free_man Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Given the weaksauce "storm" this weekend and the ugly cutter middle of next week, some interesting times ahead longer-term. Perhaps ending the winter with a major bang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Global models waffling on ideas of renewed cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Given the weaksauce "storm" this weekend and the ugly cutter middle of next week, some interesting times ahead longer-term. Perhaps ending the winter with a major bang? 3 phails in one post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 3 replies concerning the thread title so I changed it to "early March". Lol - ...it's a good thread as there's certainly something hinted in that time frame - if only a hint for the time being. The teleconnector support is still there... really until about the 10th of the month we are good to go. Then, depending on what the EPO does may very well dictate if we wrap things up by "the ides of March" or not protract the end of winter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that incoming on the day 7 Euro today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that incoming on the day 7 Euro today? is it on weatherunderground yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 is it on weatherunderground yet? It's progressive, so it blows up offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NCEP's view on this - "...UPSTREAM...A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN US THU/D3. DIGGING ENERGY WILL FEED MORE SHARPLY INTO THE S-CENTRAL US BY FRI TO THE LEE OF A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH AND WRN US RIDGE COUPLET DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO QUITE AN AMPLIFIED WRN US RIDGE AND COLD ERN US TROUGH... POSITIVE PNA PATTERN... BY SAT/D5 JUST AS HEIGHT RISES FEED WESTWARD FROM GREENLAND INTO ERN CANADA AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS MAY LEAD TO ERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL SAT-MON AND HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW MODERATE DEVELOPMENT BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. 500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO DROP TO -3.5 OR SO CENTERED OVER FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS 10-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro brewing up another day 10 coastal too. Looks like it'd be offshore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would seriously watch that March 2nd - ish period of time, folks - Good lord what a tele shot at something special is lurking there... And that extended Euro is really a just a hair away from gettin iggy wit it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 OT but analogs strongly support the March 7th bomb shown developing on the Euro, there are some big boys on the list. Got a chance for KU 2 imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 OT but analogs strongly support the March 7th bomb shown developing on the Euro, there are some big boys on the list. Got a chance for KU 2 imho. Anything showing for March 2nd? (computer at work - slow...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWR Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Anything showing for March 2nd? (computer at work - slow...) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/01/funny-weather-map_n_816981.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There are a couple threats popping up on guidance in the 1st week or so of March. The 1st one looks like it may develop offshore but the 2nd one may be closer in. Way to early to analyze other than the systems are there on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Mar 1 threat showing up on the 0z GFS again. Now we just need this to hold for 3 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Ridging over Rockies. This could bode well for eastern NE on this run. wrt 3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Was there a strong -epo coupled with a strong -nao for the 4/7/82 nor'easter? Because I can't see on the psu narr data up to Greenland and Alaska. Just wanted to know if the pattern in that event is a good analog for the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 ? I was speaking more for the BOS/TOL area. Surely the interior and esp. GC will do well, as we often always do...even in a less than decent pattern. I don't hyperfocus on mby, within the perspective of posts. 3 phails in one post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Was there a strong -epo coupled with a strong -nao for the 4/7/82 nor'easter? Because I can't see on the psu narr data up to Greenland and Alaska. Just wanted to know if the pattern in that event is a good analog for the first week of March. Yes, quite negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12z GFS coming close on the Day 6-7 system. May clip eastern areas verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I have a hard time believing the day 6/7 system will be able to amplify enough to get the Northeast. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I have a hard time believing the day 6/7 system will be able to amplify enough to get the Northeast. But we shall see. Yeah I think it's east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 How did the Euro look for the Day 6/7 system? Or since it's almost March 1st, the Thursday night/Friday Rain/Snow that the GFS stubbornly advertizes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 How did the Euro look for the Day 6/7 system? Or since it's almost March 1st, the Thursday night/Friday Rain/Snow that the GFS stubbornly advertizes? Silence speaks a thousand words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Silence speaks a thousand words. It's weak and well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro brewing up a storm on the follow-up wave it would appear. For Day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Mar 6-7 looks like a decent setup on the Euro. Don't worry about the Mar 4th event, that is likely a fish storm. I mentioned yesterday in the pattern thread that the ensembles hinted at something Mar 6-7...its showing up at D8-9 on the OP Euro today. Its a really cold system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Mar 6-7 looks like a decent setup on the Euro. Don't worry about the Mar 4th event, that is likely a fish storm. I mentioned yesterday in the pattern thread that the ensembles hinted at something Mar 6-7...its showing up at D8-9 on the OP Euro today. Its a really cold system too. Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Beast. f216.gif Taunton trouncer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Mar 6-7 looks like a decent setup on the Euro. Don't worry about the Mar 4th event, that is likely a fish storm. I mentioned yesterday in the pattern thread that the ensembles hinted at something Mar 6-7...its showing up at D8-9 on the OP Euro today. Its a really cold system too. Agreed...the Euro likes a piece of the ULL from this week to split over Southeast Canada and then phase with the vort that drops underneath it from the Pac NW. Has some very interesting possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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