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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

euro weenie maps dont give anyone inside 495 in E ma (except maybe the stretch from milford to marlboro) any sig. snow wed am. not sure how usefull accurate they are

 

they build some snows in wed nite for the NE mass area.....sort of like 0z did but right inside 128 corridor as oppose to the 495 corridor which 0z did (again this is for wed late eve/nite) per euro weenie maps

 

not sure what they are doing with the wed am stuff for areas like KBED , KGAY, KLWM.....torch'd bl ?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

euro weenie maps dont give anyone inside 495 in E ma (except maybe the stretch from milford to marlboro) any sig. snow wed am. not sure how usefull accurate they are

 

they build some snows in wed nite for the NE mass area.....sort of like 0z did but right inside 128 corridor as oppose to the 495 corridor which 0z did (again this is for wed late eve/nite) per euro weenie maps

 

not sure what they are doing with the wed am stuff for areas like KBED , KGAY, KLWM.....torch'd bl ?

 

 

Yeah the Euro torches the BL in E MA Wed morning.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

i really don't like the location of that low tucked so far west over SNJ for wed am in ema even in the 128- or even 495 corridor 

 

i would think qpf maybe focused Central and Western SNE with the front end dump potentially and i would think E of ORH the Bl may be cook'd. maybe that is what euro /nam weenie snow maps are showing.

 

edit thanks will for answering

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Yeah the Euro torches the BL in E MA Wed morning.

so is a front end thump off the table for these areas for the most part, in your opinion will

 

i guess i didn't realize with this trending south stuff that E MA out thru 495 was still crapola? seems Bl could be even worse then this last event for that area

 

i mention this because i though i read guidance that show'd a few inches for Boston and this sort of flies in the face of that

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

BTV and trusted local forecasters still have rain up here, though they mention that it will be elevation and time of day dependant.

Guidance has trended colder.  The forecasts later today will probably reflect that.  Based on 12z, it would be mostly snow (if not all snow) up there.  But marginal temps and downsloping will likely make this highly elevationally dependent.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I kind of like these dynamic p-type deals - just me, I know..  But could be snow most of the time for places like Winchendon Mass, while PVD has 32.1 rain with icing going on in the NW hills... 

 

Yeah, but if you are out over the Cape...eh, tough there.  You stick out in the ocean on an East wind in the best of times and you got problems.  You are right though, 50 mi south might commit this to more a normal Nor'easter and that would mean for a different landscape to this event for sure - 

oh i'm not expecting anything here. this would have to be a huge huge bust on everything to get this to anything more than a few sloppy flakes/pingers at the onset here. i just meant overall...a 50 mile shift S would be a huge difference in sensible outcome, especially for the interior of MA up toward your place as they would be probably stay squarely under the easterly low level flow and get walloped. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

so is a front end thump off the table for these areas for the most part, in your opinion will

 

i guess i didn't realize with this trending south stuff that E MA out thru 495 was still crapola? seems Bl could be even worse then this last event for that area

 

i mention this because i though i read guidance that show'd a few inches for Boston and this sort of flies in the face of that

 

 

Outside 128 I think still has a shot on the front end...but it will be close. Tough forecast. Otherwise they'll have to wait until the ULL moves out underneath us and the associated lighter snows.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Outside 128 I think still has a shot on the front end...but it will be close. Tough forecast. Otherwise they'll have to wait until the ULL moves out underneath us and the associated lighter snows.

will not to beat a dead horse, but i know we have alot of posters in the 128 "area" belt

 

as we will no question be following this event over next 2 days, what is something (or something's) that could shift to get the 128 area more involved and limit the BL torching? wrt front end dump and morning commute snows, if you could , please.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted

It's an effective reference since the climate along the whole of RT 2 is too variable to just use RT 2  as a reference for winter events.  W of the CT River can be quite different than even Orange and Athol never mind your area which is a different forecast zone.  In fact RT 2 corridor W of the Ct River is really more like CNE as far as winter discussion.

 

With this particular system Mohawk Trail region of RT 2 seems to be a favorable place to be.

Quite a bit of elevation is gained on the hill directly west of Greenfield and not all of it given back.. quick look at google earth shows ~200' at 2/91 intersection.

800' at the top of the hill and the the next low spot is ~400' at the bridge in Shelburne Falls, by Charlemont the river is over 500' and rising.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

This should push the rain out of GYX's forecast I would think.  Watches this afternoon or perhaps the overnight/ early morn package...

I fully expect the requisite rain/mix language for the coast. Things have certainly trended colder, but I'll still be staring down some E winds.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

will not to beat a dead horse, but i know we have alot of posters in the 128 "area" belt

 

as we will no question be following this event over next 2 days, what is something (or something's) that could shift to get the 128 area more involved and limit the BL torching? wrt front end dump and morning commute snows, if you could , please

 

 

There isn't much to mitigate the strong easterly flow...the high is northeast of us and the low hugs the M.A. coast...if the low can get squeezed out underneath us faster then that might help.

 

Hope for a 34F paste bomb to start. The SSTs this time ofthe year aren't nearly as warm as December, so even with onshore flow, it can rip if the precip comes in heavy.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

I like the N-S oriented hills/ridges for this one in WMA, and ENY.  GFS and GGEM are around 2" liquid for 2 day totals.  Euro is less but still big. Not excited for the valleys... looks really marginal.  And by the time midlevels cool, the surface may be irrevocably torched.  CVT looks suspicously dry compared to previous runs.  Could be a trend but VT ski country says it's a blip.

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted

Yes, closest climo site to Whiteface/Lake Placid, my second locale.

-skisheep

 

Oh wow.. When I was a kid, my uncle had a factory in Saranac Lake.. He used to fly me up there in his twin engine plane.. I remember skiiing a place called Big Tupper.. Dont even know if its still there.. this goes back quite a ways   ;)  But what country.. Man!!  And, what snow!!  wow.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

I like the N-S oriented hills/ridges for this one in WMA, and ENY.  GFS and GGEM are around 2" liquid for 2 day totals.  Euro is less but still big. Not excited for the valleys... looks really marginal.  And by the time midlevels cool, the surface may be irrevocably torched.  CVT looks suspicously dry compared to previous runs.  Could be a trend but VT ski country says it's a blip.

 

I don't usually take too much selling on why the valley will underperform.    I realize this isn't a true SWFE, but it is sort of acting like one and if so climo suggests a rapid onset of heavy precip and a CAD signature... given the overnight arrival and likely good rates, I think we do ok here relatively.  Also SE flow doesn't downslope us as badly as ENE. 

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