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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Guessing that the QPF shifted SE again on this run?

Two questions: One, how much QPF does SLK see?(I know it's out of the forums area, but it's in the BTV warning area, and the upstate forum is always quiet), and Two, do I start as snow on the EURO, even for a few minutes? Thanks in advance.

 

-skisheep

 

The Euro has .48" all snow through 06z Thursday at SLK.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah, he stumped the panel with that one.

 

I think Tip, MPM and myself are the only 3 people on the board that call W end of Rt 2 The Mohawk Trail.

 

 

Yeah, I used that for geographic reference only ... more for generalized latitude appeal:   Here is technically the region - but if you continue to follow Rt 2 on toward Acton and Concord Mass... Lincoln and Arlington... it's a good reference zone. 

 

neweng-r15-240.jpg

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

12z Euro 850mb freezing line only gets as far north as about DXR-HFD-IJD-PVD-TAN. 2m temps hover around freezing in western MA, while other areas do warm into the mid-30's during the day on Wednesday. FWIW, 1000-500mb thicknesses also a tick cooler.

would this imply a wet snow north of there , wonder if 8H has a warm layer

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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man this is painful. if we can get this 50 miles further south...what a difference for the entire SNE region. no offense NNE peeps. 

 

 

I kind of like these dynamic p-type deals - just me, I know..  But could be snow most of the time for places like Winchendon Mass, while PVD has 32.1 rain with icing going on in the NW hills... 

 

Yeah, but if you are out over the Cape...eh, tough there.  You stick out in the ocean on an East wind in the best of times and you got problems.  You are right though, 50 mi south might commit this to more a normal Nor'easter and that would mean for a different landscape to this event for sure - 

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Seems like this run shifted 25-50 miles SE? Is there room for one more tickle?

it shifted south some yeah. there's certainly room for more. if it were a couple days further out, i'd be happier. 

 

the HP up north is strong...noses in stronger too. so close. any further SE and i'd suspect you stay 32 or colder. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

It's an effective reference since the climate along the whole of RT 2 is too variable to just use RT 2  as a reference for winter events.  W of the CT River can be quite different than even Orange and Athol never mind your area which is a different forecast zone.  In fact RT 2 corridor W of the Ct River is really more like CNE as far as winter discussion.

 

With this particular system Mohawk Trail region of RT 2 seems to be a favorable place to be.

 

Yeah, I used that for geographic reference only ... more for generalized latitude appeal:   Here is technically the region - but if you continue to follow Rt 2 on toward Acton and Concord Mass... Lincoln and Arlington... it's a good reference zone. 

 

neweng-r15-240.jpg

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