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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

You think SNE can squeeze much out of this one? I feel like this is a dendrite special...though with maybe some advisory type stuff down into the Berks and ORH hills. Maybe some slop s/e of there?

 

I don't like how it comes in kind of strung out and then refires overhead, but I think the ORH hills could squeeze out a good several inches anyways. Just hoping for an inch or two here, but that only occurs if this stuff comes in with good vvs. I do think this is a CNE special for sure. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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The globals keep ticking the ULL SE. It won't take much to make this very interesting..lol, but I think it will have a limit as to how far se it goes.

Yeah, either the ULL fizzles out or it stays progressive, allowing the secondary to take over sooner.  Need that to occur, otherwise, meh for a lot of SNE.  Right now I'd favor the ORH hills, Berks in SNE and N of there for the majority of snow to fall.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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Yeah I suppose that's a possibility to consider too. Not far from crushing Will with a 12/92. Lol.

Oh I'm not even close to going there..lol. I think he'll squeeze out high advisory..maybe low end warning if things break right.

No I didn't think you we're. Lol.

That was more tongue-in-cheek because of some of the charts from last week

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

850WIND-13.gif

 

Pretty strong easterly and southerly component to the LLJ as it lifts northward. No wonder the models are already doing things like this...

 

attachicon.gifUVV.jpg

 

Just an example of the omega in the lowest 5 km. I tried to cut the cross section nearest MWN as I could. So that relief you see in the middle of the image is roughly the Presidentials. You can see the NAM in blue and GFS is orange are both showing a pretty strong signal for upslope enhanced vertical velocities around that 00z Thursday time frame. The higher res NAM12 has it nearly double the GFS magnitude, but that makes sense as you go from 40 km to 12 km grid spacing.

 

I do like how it's not a pure SWFE type event, where southwesterlies can tap significant warmth. This mid level flow will be more easterly or southeasterly as the low pressure gets squashed and redevelops eastward. There will be warmth aloft to tap, but it will be closer to neutral advection than strongly warm advection. The haves versus the have nots again. The easterly flow will help elevations dynamically cool in the upslope regime, but it will also help bring boundary layer warmth in off the water. So I would think you want to be up, north, and west, in that order (not on the wrong side of the high terrain of course ;) ).

 

Hopefully we can keep those upper level temps cool enough here in the coastal plain until the passage of the s/w on the coastal plain, Decent signal already on the plumes, Mean is 7.40" here but there is a ton of spread as expected this far out

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