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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Max

Max

Posted
Posted

Hey is it me or does the 0z gfs look like its running on a higher resolution tonight? The vorticity maps just look more detailed and flipping back and forth from the 12z and 0z runs make it look like two totally different runs of the gfs being only 12 hours apart.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Earning the crazy uncle moniker of late. 2 days ago had 2 feet of snow for for today....oy!

 

 

I'm riding the Euro until it fails more than the others inside of 60 hours. It was pretty good in this one inside of 60h all things considered...it had its bad spots, but other guidance was awful for the most part. Euro was also the first model even before 72h to show the inverted torugh potential if the coastal didn't deliever much. All models missed the details in this one but that is to be expected with a complex setup.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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I'm riding the Euro until it fails more than the others inside of 60 hours. It was pretty good in this one inside of 60h all things considered...it had its bad spots, but other guidance was awful for the most part. Euro was also the first model even before 72h to show the inverted torugh potential if the coastal didn't deliever much. All models missed the details in this one but that is to be expected with a complex setup.

And euro at least the past few runs have been signaling a somewhat colder solution vs American guidance.

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
Posted

I'm riding the Euro until it fails more than the others inside of 60 hours. It was pretty good in this one inside of 60h all things considered...it had its bad spots, but other guidance was awful for the most part. Euro was also the first model even before 72h to show the inverted torugh potential if the coastal didn't deliever much. All models missed the details in this one but that is to be expected with a complex setup.

 

Yup, I totally agree.  Euro wasn't great with this storm, but it was still better than the others.  00z run will be interesting...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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And euro at least the past few runs have been signaling a somewhat colder solution vs American guidance.

 

 

Yes it is. My guess is solid advisory for interior MA on the front end...maybe a couple inches of slop for BOS. A February total padder really. Though its still a bit early for amounts given the uncertainty. I'd personally be surprised if we got a lot of warning totals in the interior in this one south of Rt 2. Though there is aout a 3-6 hour window where if it comes in colder than current consensus than its possible.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Yes it is. My guess is solid advisory for interior MA on the front end...maybe a couple inches of slop for BOS. A February total padder really. Though its still a bit early for amounts given the uncertainty. I'd personally be surprised if we got a lot of warning totals in the interior in this one south of Rt 2. Though there is aout a 3-6 hour window where if it comes in colder than current consensus than its possible.

Cmc wants to try to bleed it it under us... tomorrow's guidance should be telling. Looks Ike the record for BOS is off the table...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Cmc wants to try to bleed it it under us... tomorrow's guidance should be telling. Looks Ike the record for BOS is off the table...

 

 

Yeah BOS needed at least 5" in this to have a shot...but they will prob end up with an inch or so from today. No way they get 10"+ from Feb 27.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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will you think bos has better shot wed am than they did today?

 

this is another storm where i'd prolly rather be in w framingham than wakefield ma but oh well. lets see if i can get 3 inches of mash'd

 

 

Not sure if BOS can do much better...they might have a shot between 06z and 12z...but ripping E winds are tough, even this later in the season if they are strong enough. They will almost certainly have 33-34F snow for a time, but it needs to rip for them to get more than an inch or two.

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